FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — The Falcons enter Week 13 with a 6-5 record after a two-game skid before the bye week, but they remain perched on top of the NFC South standings.
Playoffs are a reasonable expectation for Atlanta heading into the final stretch of the season. The Falcons are 4-1 in the division and hold a crucial tiebreaker against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. According to The Upshot, Atlanta has a 76% chance of reaching the postseason with only the Monday night game left to play in Week 12.
"Everything's still right in front of us," Falcons head coach Raheem Morris said following the Week 11 loss. "I think that's the most important thing for everybody to know."
Here are five things the Falcons need to do to reach the playoffs:
Get the quarterback down
There's no sugarcoating this one, the Falcons' pass rush needs to improve. Morris has said as much a few times, himself.
"You've still got to increase our pass rush. Nobody is setting excuses for those guys," Morris said ahead of Week 9. "We have seen, different practice performance than we've seen game performance, and that's the thing you've got to change."
Atlanta had its best pass-rushing performance against the Cowboys with three sacks.
That uptick in production didn't trend in the following weeks. The Falcons have 10 sacks through 11 games, the fewest in the league. The Carolina Panthers, who rank 31st, have 17. Atlanta is league average, if not slightly better, in quarterback hurries and knockdowns, but is not getting sacks at the rate it wants. With games against some good offenses left on the Falcons' schedule, an improvement in this area would go a long way towards earning a playoff spot.
Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers
Creating takeaways was an early hallmark of the Falcons' defense, which recorded at least one takeaway in six of their first eight games; five of which were wins. Safety Jessie Bates III and cornerback A.J. Terrell lead Atlanta with two interceptions apiece. Bates also has four forced fumbles, the most in the NFL.
However, the Falcons haven't recorded a takeaway in the last three games and are 1-2 in that stretch.
Atlanta has been reliant on its secondary for much of the year while the defensive front troubleshooted its run defense early on and continues to figure out the pass rush. For the most part, the defensive backs have come through. However, the reduction in turnovers has been felt. The Falcons have lacked momentum-shifting plays the last couple of weeks, and turnovers would address that too.
Red zone efficiency
On both sides of the ball, the Falcons could be more efficient near the goal line. Finishing drives with touchdowns and holding opponents to field goals are markers of good teams.
Offensively, the Falcons currently rank No. 22 in red zone conversion percentage, scoring a touchdown on 53.1% of their trips inside of the 20-yard line. They've shown they can perform in other high-pressure situations, however. The Falcons have a 73.7% conversion rate on fourth downs, which is fourth-best in the NFL.
Defensively, Atlanta ranks No. 21 with an allowed red zone conversion rate of 61.1%. The Falcons rank No. 23 in points allowed, overall. Their bend-don't-break mentality has to extend where it's most necessary down the stretch of the regular season.
Continue to spread the ball around
For most of the season, the offense has been a bright spot. Quarterback Kirk Cousins and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson have made the Falcons a top-10 offense. That's in large part because of their many weapons.
Wide receivers Darnell Mooney and Drake London lead the Falcons with 711 and 710 receiving yards, respectively. With six games left, the Falcons are fewer than 1,000 receiving yards from surpassing last season's total amongst; they already well outdid the wide receivers' total from last year.
Against a top-10 Broncos defense, Atlanta had its second-lowest passing output of the season. Cousins has to continue to get the ball in the hands of his playmakers to secure that playoff spot. They'll have another tough test after the bye; the Los Angeles Chargers have the league's top scoring defense.
Eliminate self-inflicted wounds
There's not a lot a team can totally control, but effort and discipline are two that playoff teams have on lock.
Morris said Monday that self-inflicted wounds have "killed us" on offense. The Falcons have committed 65 penalties this season, the ninth-fewest in the league. However, 40 of those have been offensive penalties, which are 12th-most among NFL teams. In Week 11, Atlanta's offense committed five of the six penalties in the loss. "If we can find ways to control those first two, the discipline and concentration of effort that it requires to score touchdowns, yourself, we can be a really good offense," Morris said. "And we have been, and we can be so much better."
