FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. – By virtually any measure, Bijan Robinson's rookie season was a success.

The No. 8 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft carried the ball 214 times for 976 yards, which ranked 15th among all running backs and first among rookies. He also caught 58 passes for 487 yards, which ranked fourth among NFL backs and again paced all rookies.

"When you get the ball in his hands, he makes people miss, he gets extra yards, he's able to fight for extra yards," Falcons head coach Raheem Morris said. "He breaks tackles, he's fast, he's explosive, he's strong."

All told, Robinson touched the ball 272 times for a total of 1,463 yards and eight touchdowns. That yardage total ranks 15th among the 27 rookie running backs since 2000 with at least 270 touches, and it puts Robinson in some truly elite company.

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The two players directly above Robinson on that ranking are Chris Johnson and LaDainian Tomlinson, two All-Pro players and, in Tomlinson's case, a Hall of Famer. And while his 1,463 yards lands him 15th on that list, Robinson ranked dead last among the players in overall touches.

In simpler terms: Robinson's 5.4 yards per touch ranked sixth on the list of 27 rookie running backs with at least 270 touches since 2000. He's ahead of players like Jamal Lewis, Marshawn Lynch and Le'Veon Bell.

As he prepares to enter his second NFL season, Robinson's arrow is clearly pointed upwards. It's a commonly held belief in the league that the biggest jumps a player makes in his career are often in his second and third years. While we don't yet know how high Robinson's ceiling is, his performance as a rookie is extremely promising. In fact, history provides some notable examples of just how big his leap might be.

Sticking with the 21st century as our cutoff for comparison, there have been 50 running backs over the last two-plus-decades who have gained more than 1,000 rushing yards in their second seasons. Of that group, only 17 players also surpassed 1,000 yards on the ground as a rookie – a selection that does not include Robinson.

So, nearly two-thirds of those 50 players who reached 1,000 rushing yards in Year 2 hadn't reached that benchmark previously. Robinson came extremely close to that mark, though, and it's clear that his overall production is a better indicator of value than pure rushing stats. Keeping that in mind, here are a few players who compare favorably to Robinson and provide a template for what could be expected.

The clearest current comparison is San Francisco's Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers' do-it-all weapon is one of the most dangerous players in the league and led the NFL with 2,023 yards from scrimmage last season. Robinson, Morris and Falcons' offensive coordinator Zac Robinson have all mentioned McCaffrey as a reference point for Atlanta's second-year back.

"I think he compared himself to that Christian McCaffrey role," Morris said. "If we can get anywhere near the great player that Christian McCaffrey is, I think we'll all be excited."

As a rookie, McCaffrey had 197 touches for 1,086 scrimmage yards. Robinson's output was greater in his first season, but McCaffrey took a big leap in Year 2 and then again in Year 3. He gained 1,965 combined yards in his second season and then led the NFL with 2,392 combined yards the following year.

Importantly, McCaffrey continued to add to his workload as both a runner and receiver during that ascent. He carried the ball 219 times and caught 107 passes in his second season. So, while Robinson is already there from a rushing attempts standpoint, he'd need to catch about 50 more passes this fall to match that increase. In Year 3, McCaffrey truly became a workhorse with 287 carries and 116 receptions.

It's unclear how much more volume Robinson will take on while Tyler Allgeier is around and off to a great start in his own career. That could be a potential obstacle for a large bump in usage. But there's no questioning the similarities between McCaffrey and Robinson, and the upside for return with greater investment.

How about the aforementioned Johnson, who gained 1,488 total yards as a rookie for the Titans in 2008? His first-year production closely mirrors that of Robinson. In Year 2, Johnson turned in an all-time season, gaining 2,509 yards from scrimmage, including more than 2,000 rushing yards to earn his "CJ2K" nickname.

Johnson was always more of a pure running back than a receiving threat, but he caught 50 passes for 503 yards in his second season – numbers that are easily within reach for Robinson. Where Johnson really made a leap was on the ground. He led the league with 358 carries and averaged 125.4 rushing yards per game.

This scenario would require a significant uptick in carries for Robinson while maintaining a similar workload as a receiver – pretty much the inverse of the McCaffrey path. It's possible Robinson does get a good deal more carries this season (more on that below), but a league-leading number feels like a stretch.

Le'Veon Bell is another player whose rookie output was similar to Robinson's. The former Pittsburgh Steeler had 289 touches for 1,259 total yards in 13 games during the 2013 season. The next year, Bell broke out for 2,215 yards on 373 touches. That's a mark that feels within the realm of possibility for Robinson.

A closer look at the breakdown of Bell's production shows that he went from 244 carries as a rookie to 290 in Year 2, and he increased his number of receptions from 45 to 83. If Robinson were to boost his workload by a similar degree in 2024, he'd finish with around 320 carries and 100 receptions. Should Robinson reach those usage rates this season, his production would likely make a comparable jump as well.

"With the ball in his hands, there are so many things he can do," Zac Robinson said. "There's nothing he can't do. That's what gets you excited."

Given the number of talented young players on Atlanta's offense, Robinson may not get the volume needed to put up insane numbers. The game is also changing to rely less on high-volume running backs. After all, Derrick Henry led the league with 280 rushing attempts last season, which is a far cry from the NFL-best 392 attempts DeMarco Murray had in 2014.

However, there are reasons to believe Robinson is the next blue-chip running back to make the jump from great to elite in Year 2.

The comments made by Atlanta's new coaching staff about the similarities between Robinson and McCaffrey should not be taken lightly. The two are similarly electric with the ball in their hands, and their versatility is so great that they impact multiple important facets of the game like a specialist. But let's not look past one last running back who deserves mention when it comes to projecting what Robinson could look like in 2024: Kyren Williams.

Williams was the feature back in his second season for the Los Angeles Rams. Although he missed five games last season due to injury, Williams still finished third in the league with 1,144 rushing yards. In a full 17 game season, Williams was on pace for 323 carries for 1,621 yards with 45 receptions for 292 yards. That's a total output of 1,913 yards, a mark very similar to McCaffrey's second season.

Robinson's breakdown is likely to involve a few more receptions but, if he stays healthy, it's reasonable to keep these numbers in mind as an example of what's possible. He'll need to clearly assume the No. 1 role in this offense – and given how good Allgeier is, the team may be hesitant on that front – but Robinson's talent is equal to the best backs in recent NFL history.

The Falcons are right to be excited about what Robinson can achieve in Year 2.

"In as simple of a form as you can possibly make it," Morris said, "it's: 'Get the ball to Bijan as much as you can in as many ideal situations that you possibly can.'"