FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — The Atlanta Falcons enter their final stretch on a slide.
After losing their last four games, and the NFC South lead, the Falcons need to turn things around quickly if they are to fulfill their goal of winning the division and reaching the playoffs. That starts on Monday night against the Las Vegas Raiders, and it will involve reversing some trends that have taken hold recently.
In looking at what needs to happen for the Falcons to heat up as the season winds down, Tori McElhaney, Will McFadden, Terrin Waack and Amna Subhan identified one trend they'd like to see change.
What is one trend that needs to change in the final four games?
McELHANEY: Let's talk about turnovers. Not just the fact that Kirk Cousins has thrown the amount of interceptions he has in the last month. It's more than that. It's the fact while the Falcons are giving the ball away at a high rate, they're not getting the ball back in turn in similar fashion.
Cousins has thrown 15 interceptions. The Falcons defense has forced seven interceptions. The Falcons have lost five fumbles. Their opponents have lost four. Overall, the Falcons — as a team, not just Cousins — is losing the turnover battle 20-11. And when games come down to the wire, or better yet, they are one-score games, this margin matters. It mattered against the Minnesota Vikings this past week, with Cousins throwing two interceptions and Ray-Ray McCloud fumbling a kickoff return. I've written a few times that points have been at a premium for the Falcons since October ended, losing possession is a major reason why.
And the thing about turnovers? It's a full team effort. It falls on offense to take care of the ball. It falls on the defense to get the ball back. And it falls on special teams to do a little bit of both. And recently, no one unit is holding up their end of the turnover bargain.
Raheem Morris was asked about turnovers this week, particularly in the context of the defense's lack of turnovers generated. Here's his full quote:
"No doubt that was a part of our game plan (Sunday): try to go for some turnovers, get the ball back. And we had some opportunities. We missed some big-time track opportunities (Sunday) by big-time players, whether it was Justin Simmons or whether it was Jessie (Bates). This is not me calling those guys out because they've got high expectations for themselves to be able to make some of those plays. We did not make them yesterday, and those are the ones you want to be able to do.
"At the end of the game when we gave up the rushing yards, we got carried away in the four-minute drive trying to punch the ball out instead of tackling. They were able to tack some extra rushing yards on and it just wasn't a move of time to do it. And I don't want to take credit away from the Vikings and what they were able to do and the execution that they were able to make. They did a nice job doing those things. We did rush the passer well. The other time you get turnovers is on sack fumbles. We've got to be able to get the ball off of him a couple of times when you're able to get to the quarterback four times."
This could be a difference-maker for this team down the stretch. The Falcons are a team in need of some momentum-shifting play. And what's more momentum-shifting that creating a turnover? Honestly, scoring touchdowns, which is what you have the chance to do if you take care of the ball. So, yeah, it goes both ways.
McFADDEN: The Falcons are last in the NFL in fourth-quarter scoring this season, which makes it hard to be successful in a league where one-score games are the norm. Case in point: Atlanta has scored in the fourth quarter in six games, and its record in those games is 5-1. In the seven games Atlanta has been held scoreless in the final frame, it has a 1-6 record. Fourth-quarter points matter.
Through Week 14, Atlanta is averaging just 3.23 fourth-quarter points per game. It wasn't always this way, though. From Weeks 1-6, the Falcons ranked 16th in fourth-quarter points with an average of six points per game. That number isn't going to set any records, but it helped the team stay consistent in scoring and start the year 4-2.
From Week 7 on, however, the Falcons have scored a total of six points in the fourth quarter. Those came on a 6-yard run by Tyler Allgeier against Dallas (the team failed a two-point conversion). Atlanta hasn't struggled to put up points in the other three quarters since Week 7. It ranks 12th in first-quarter scoring (4.43 points), 17th in second-quarter scoring (6.29) and eighth in third-quarter scoring (6.86). A strong finish in some of these games, and I think we're having a different conversation about this season.
WAACK: Twisting this prompt a little bit. Rather than choosing one trend that needs to change, I'm focusing on something that cannot become a trend moving forward. And that is giving up multiple explosive plays, specifically in the passing game.
The Falcons' loss to the Vikings proved how costly those can be. I wrote about it postgame already. Now, I'm doubling down on the matter.
The Vikings averaged 12.4 yards per attempt and 15.8 yards per completion. Quarterback Sam Darnold connected 22 of his 28 passes for 347 yards and five touchdowns. Those five touchdowns were from 6, 11, 12, 49 and 52 yards out to either wide receivers Jordan Addison or Justin Jefferson.
Overall, Darnold had 13 passes go for at least 10 yards and six passes go for at least 20 yards. Three even went for more than 40 yards, which is more than any other opponent this season. Only four other teams had at least one completion of at least 40 yards: the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 13, the Denver Broncos in Week 11, the New Orleans Saints in Week 10 and the Pittsburgh Steelers (two) in Week 1. The Falcons lost all of those games.
An explosive play here or there isn't terrible. They're bound to happen. The important thing, however, is to limit the amount allowed so that one area of the game doesn't dictate the outcome. The Falcons did not do that against the Vikings, and Atlanta needs to make sure that was a fluke if it wants to find success in its final four games.
SUBHAN: Penalties. The Falcons committed a season-high 12 penalties for 127 yards in the loss to the Minnesota. The penalty yardage was the most by any team in the NFL this season.
Falcons head coach Raheem Morris has harped on the need to ameliorate "self-inflicted wounds." It was an emphasis coming out of the bye week, but two games later the trend persists. Atlanta cleaned it up initially, committing a season-low two penalties for 10 yards in Week 13, but followed it up with its most-flagged performance of the season.
"They crushed us," Morris said after the loss.
The Falcons aren't the most penalized team in the league, in fact, they rank in the bottom 15 with 79 on the season. However, they're No. 14 in penalty yards. Most have come from the offense, and it's been a trend all season that's halted the Falcons from gaining momentum on drives.
Penalties aren't always a marker of a losing team or even a bad team. For example, the Baltimore Ravens (8-5) are the most penalized across the NFL, but they've found ways to win and be a top-10 team despite that. The Falcons found ways to overcome penalties early in the season (see Weeks 4 and 5), but they've recently compounded with the rest of the trends outlined above and played a part in this four-game skid.
The sentiment after the Falcons dropped to No. 2 in the NFC South was to focus on themselves and control what's in their control. Penalties are entirely in their control, and while the Falcons won't solely determine their own playoff destiny right now, they can clean up the flags.
