FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — There's not much new to say about Atlanta's performance recently.
The positives — a strong run game and a revitalized pass rush — haven't outweighed the negatives — turnovers and scoring droughts — leaving the Falcons in second place in the division with four games remaining. Fortunately, the questions in today's Mailbox touched on a few different aspects of the team that are very much worth exploring.
But we'll start with a question that feels more pertinent than ever to Atlanta's current situation.
Johnny B. from Atlanta
Despite the dark cloud hanging over the Dirty Birds as of late, I'm here to try and provide a little positivity. We are coming back to Monday Night Football, and the last time we were on MNF, it went…rather well. (Take that, Philly)
However, my question is this: Is this a MUST win? At this point, Atlanta is 6-7, a game behind the Bucs in the NFC South, and if we lose to dear old Desmond Ridder and the Raiders, would that just about kill our playoff hopes? At this point, my confidence that the Falcons CAN win the rest of their games is there, but my confidence that they actually will …. not so much. Thoughts?
Hey Johnny, thanks for the question. It's similar to many we've received over the last few weeks, but the term "must win" just hasn't been applicable so far. It's not that these most recent games haven't been important, but there was just a cushion because of the team's strong start to the season.
However, that cushion has evaporated. So, yes, this is a game the Falcons need to win. Not just because the team's playoff chances would drop to 21% with a loss on Monday night — you can view the full playoff picture here — but because of who they are playing. Losses to the Broncos, Chargers and Vikings, teams that would all be in the playoffs if they started today, are understandable. But a loss to the 2-11 Las Vegas Raiders would be a different story altogether.
That's not a shot at the Raiders, who have played some quality games this year, it's just the reality of the situation. The Falcons came into this season with plans to win the NFC South and reach the postseason. Those plans are in a tenuous spot right now, but still attainable, albeit with a little help. If the Falcons can't win on Monday, though…
Rick F. from Ooltewah, Tenn.
Why are we not running more play action with Kirk in the games if that is what he is good at? I heard they were going to start. What happened, did they forget? We have a great run game, and it would work better than what the OC is doing now. Leave Kirk in and run play action and maybe we make the playoffs.
You heard correctly, Rick. Raheem Morris did say coming out of the bye week that they would like to increase their rate of play-action passes.
From Weeks 1-11, the Falcons used play action with Kirk Cousins on 14.3% of his dropbacks, which ranked near the bottom of the league. That number did increase slightly in their first game after the bye, when Atlanta used play action on 17.5% of Cousins' dropbacks. However, against Minnesota, only 10.5% of Cousins' dropbacks involved play action. That puts Atlanta's play-action rate at 14.1% after the bye week, which is actually lower than its rate before the break.
I'd also like to see an increase in play action over the final four games, because I believe it's an effective way to create open passing lanes and keep a defense off-balance. And I think we will see that. Play action becomes harder to execute when an offense is forced to become one-dimensional, and that was the case in the fourth quarter against the Vikings. Hence the low play-action rate. But this has been a trend all season, and one I would like to see change.
David H. from Marshalltown, Iowa
Ugh. Another Falcon season where we start to look at next season before this season ends. That being said, ATL has 4 picks - only two of which among the first 100 players or so. No doubt, we'll have to make cuts and dive into free agency, likely restructuring contracts to free up more money to do so. What are your thoughts on trades to garner a few more picks in the 3-4 rounds?
Great question, David, and while I'd encourage you to stay locked in for this final four-game push, I totally understand the impulse to peak ahead to the future. You're right, the Falcons currently have four draft picks on the ledger — one in the first round, second round, fourth round and seventh round. That's not a ton of draft capital to work with, and I think it's entirely possible they look to add to that collection, and perhaps likely they do so.
Atlanta is projected to have the just under $8 million in cap space for 2024, according to Spotrac, but there are always moves to make that could free up some extra space. I think some of this year's draft picks were made with that in mind. Instead of outright releasing players to gain more financial flexibility, I do believe they'd test the trade market to see if they could get some draft picks back in return while also clearing up their cap space a little bit.
Joseph M. from Jackson, Ga.
It seems our receivers are never open. They seem to be always in double coverage. Is it the play calling, spacing or the receivers just not getting separation. For whatever reason no quarterback can be that accurate without a lot of risk of interceptions.
We'll end on this one from Joseph, which definitely piqued my curiosity. There are a couple of different stats to sort through here, but the overall takeaway is: You're not far off.
Looking at Next Gen Stats, and filtering only for wide receivers and tight ends, the Falcons average 3 yards of separation on route. That's right around league average, and the same mark as teams like the Bengals, Eagles and Steelers, who have some pretty good receiver groups. However, Atlanta leads the league in percentage of tight-window throws to receivers and tight ends at 24.6% and is on the lower end of open rate at 40.1%.
So, there are definitely some bang-bang throws for this offense. However, I think it's difficult to discern whether that should be attributed to the receivers, the scheme or the quarterback. It's probably a little bit of everything. We know Drake London is an excellent contested-catch receiver, so the tight-window throws could be a sign of Kirk Cousins' confidence in his receivers. We've also seen some exceptional play designs — I'm thinking of Darnell Mooney's touchdown against Dallas — that have created a ton of space for the ball. It's also worth mentioning that defenses across the league are deploying defenses designed to take passing games away at a high rate, which is going to muddy a lot of the throwing lanes.
I don't have a grand conclusion for your question, but it was a fun one to dig into. To combine your point with Rick's above, I believe play action could help solve some of what you're seeing with receiver separation.
Thank you all for today's questions! If I didn't get to yours today, it may be selected in future editions of The Mailbox. The next one will be published Tuesday morning, when Tori will answer your questions.
If you'd like to submit a question for a future mailbag, *you may do so here*.
