FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — What happens throughout a game matters more than the start.
Sure, a touchdown scored on the opening drive leads to a burst of excitement. But a single firework always fizzles out. A full show is needed to maintain not only attention but energy as well.
Recency bias comes into effect because the Atlanta Falcons' Week 5 game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers featured a coin-toss win, an opening-drive touchdown and an overtime victory — that also featured a successful coin toss. It appeared as though the Falcons carried momentum through all four quarters and change. It was, to stick with the metaphor, a full show of fireworks.
"Anytime that those guys are put on the grass first, that's kind of challenge to us like, 'Hey, let's go set the tempo for the rest of the day,'" Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson said. "And those guys have done a good job."
The Falcons have received the opening kickoff four times. Those ensuing offensive drives resulted in two touchdowns, a field goal and a punt. So, more times than not, the unit has put the first points on the board.
The issue is: Atlanta is 2-2 in those games.
"I don't like the start-fast mentality because what does that mean?" Falcons head coach Raheem Morris said. "We started fast, 'We're good, coach. Let's get out of here.'
"But I do like having guys get out there and have the ability to get out there and get things going and moving in the right direction."
The Falcons did that against the Buccaneers. The other game in which Atlanta scored on its opening drive was Week 3 against the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Falcons did not keep the momentum going. This proves a fast start doesn't always carry through to a win.
Despite being tied for the second-most game-opening touchdown drives among active quarterbacks (44), Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins knows better than most to not get his hopes up too soon.
"If you can go down and score, I think it puts the wind at your back a little bit," Cousins said. "But I had a game (three) years ago against the (Cleveland) Browns, where we went down, scored on the first drive and kind of thought, 'OK, great start to the game.' That was the last points of the day. We lost, 14-7. I'll never forget walking off the field thinking, 'Man, after that first drive, we didn't get anything done.'"
Cousins' 2021 experience is just one example of an offense fizzling out. There are many more already in 2024.
There have been 78 games played so far this season. Because of a Week 1 kickoff returned for a touchdown, however, there have been 77 opening offensive drives. Twenty-two of those have ended in a touchdown (only 28.6%). Twelve of those teams that scored ultimately won the game. That's a 15.6% success rate.
While a touchdown scored on the opening drive may provide an offense a mental boost, it doesn't statistically lead to victory.
"I wish it set the tone," Cousins said. "It's a long game. … You never know how it's going to play out. That's the beauty of football, is you just play this game one play at a time. You can never really take anything for granted."
