FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — One of the best predictors for success for an offense is whether or not they are able to get into and extend drives. It is incredibly difficult to have a successful offensive drive without gaining at least one first down beyond the initial first-and-10 to start. That sounds pretty obvious, but unless you are starting with great field position, or you score a very long touchdown, you are going to need to move the chains to be successful.

This season, teams are averaging 0.11 points and 2.72 plays per drive when they don't gain at least one first down. The numbers are a little bit better when teams gain at least one first down, but they vastly improve when teams gain more than one first down. Teams average 3.78 points and 8.31 plays on drives with multiple first downs this season. Atlanta is no exception to this rule.

According to TruMedia, the Falcons rank eighth in the NFL in points per drive (4.10) when they gain multiple first downs. Contrast that with the 0.30 points the team averages on drives with one or fewer first downs. This would suggest that for an offense, generally speaking, plays equal points. The more first downs a team gains, the longer the drive lasts, the better field position they gain and the more opportunities for points they have. It doesn't hurt that the Falcons have the lowest three-and-out rate in the NFL at 12%, according to TruMedia.

Down set conversion rate, or the rate at which a team turns one first down into another set of downs or a touchdown, is a good measure for how successful a team is at extending drives. Typically, the teams that rank high in down set conversion also rank high in scoring. For example, Atlanta ranks eighth in the NFL in down set conversion rate (75%) and 10th in points per drive (2.33). Furthermore, the top 10 teams in the NFL in terms of down set conversion rate are also the top 10 teams in points per drive.

Digging a little bit deeper into the numbers reveals the key to Atlanta's success in extending drives: explosive plays.

For this exercise, we are using runs of 10-plus yards and passes of 15-plus yards as plays that qualify as explosive. Atlanta has 78 explosive plays this season, with 28 explosive runs and 50 explosive passes. While that ranks 11th in the league this season, which doesn't sound overly impressive on the surface, the Falcons have made those explosive plays count.

This season, Atlanta has 50 drives with an explosive play, and on those drives the Falcons average 3.88 points per drive, which ranks eighth in the NFL. Atlanta has scored a touchdown on 44% of those drives and come away with points on 72%, the fifth-best scoring average in the league per TruMedia.

Additionally, the Falcons rank 10th in the league, generating 2.2 expected points added per drive and Kirk Cousins' EPA per dropback is the third-best among passers (0.51) on drives with an explosive play.

The impact on the offense is clear when we compare those numbers to drives where the Falcons have not recorded an explosive play. Atlanta has scored on just 7.1% of those drives, the fifth-lowest mark in the league. That means the Falcons are 65% more likely to score on a drive with an explosive play.

Atlanta averages 0.48 points per drive with a touchdown on just 2.4% of drives. The Falcons average 4.33 plays per drive compared to 7.38 on drives with an explosive play and their down set conversion rate drops from 84.7% to just 50%. In total, Atlanta scored just a single touchdown on a drive that did not feature an explosive play.

The correlation between explosive plays and scoring is not exclusive to the Falcons. Explosive plays greatly increase any team's chances of scoring on any given drive. This season, teams average 3.40 points per drive and are scoring on 62.9% of drives when they have an explosive play. Those numbers drop to 0.59 points per drive and 13.1% of drives without an explosive.

Atlanta's ability to create explosive plays has been a strength of the offense as a whole as well as the individual players that comprise it. Atlanta's running backs' ability to create yards after contact has played a significant role in producing big plays. Similarly, Cousins' accuracy down the field and Falcons receivers' ability to create yards after the catch have proven vital to getting chunk plays through the air.

According to Next Gen Stats, Falcons running backs have combined for 122 rushing yards over expectation and 20 individual rushes where they have gained five or more yards over expectation. They have generated 64 missed tackles and forced a missed tackle on 28.6% of carries. Entering Week 10, the Falcons rank fifth in yards after contact per carry (3.4) and have totaled 762 yards after contact.

Individually, Bijan Robinson ranks fifth in missed tackles forced (40) entering Week 10. He and Tyler Allgeier forced a missed tackle on 29% of their carries. Their ability to force missed tackles has helped them generate 708 yards after contact with Allgeier averaging 3.8 yards after contact per carry and Robinson posting 3.2 yards after contact per carry. Robinson has 11 rushes with five or more yards over expectation, while Allgeier has recorded seven such runs. The duo has generated 13 and 12 explosive runs, respectively.

All that to say, Robinson and Allgeier's ability to turn short gains into explosive ones has been critical to the Falcons' offense success.

The same can be said for Atlanta's weapons in the passing game. Cousins has quickly built a strong rapport with Darnell Mooney.

Entering Week 10, Mooney ranks second in the NFL with 19 receptions of 15 or more yards. Nearly half of Mooney's 41 total catches have been explosive plays. He just about averages an explosive play every time he catches a pass with his 14.3 yards per reception. Where Mooney has really made an impact is scoring on big plays. According to TruMedia, Mooney's four touchdowns of 15+ yards ranks second in the NFL entering Week 10.

Cousins and Drake London have also combined to generate their share of explosive plays. London has 12 receptions of at least 15 yards, creating an explosive play on 17% of his targets.

Atlanta has shown it is capable of creating explosive plays in a variety of ways. Whether that is yards after contact in the running game, yards at the catch or yards after the catch in the passing game. Robinson is perhaps the best example of this as not only has he been solid in creating missed tackles and yards after contact on the ground, but he also leads the NFL in yards after the catch (398).

According to Next Gen Stats, Robinson has a -95 completion air yards, meaning most of his catches have come behind the line of scrimmage. With his combination of speed, elusiveness and physicality, Robinson has emerged as one of the league's most dynamic playmakers.

Led by Robinson, the Falcons have the fourth-most YAC in the NFL entering Week 10 (1,238). That has undoubtedly helped the team create explosive plays, and its efficiency in converting those explosive plays into points has been a major factor in the team's continuing offensive success.

Defensive playmakers limiting explosives

One thing that many were hoping to see improvement in was the pass rush on Sunday, and they got it.

Against Dallas in Week 9, Atlanta matched its season total in sacks with three, a single-season high for the team. The club also totaled a season-high 18 pressures on Sunday, too, and the unit doesn't plan to stop there.

As defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake said, the Falcons are trusting that production will come at the right time.

"We're never where we want to be in the middle of the season," Lake said. "Usually when we start hitting our stride at the right time, that's when championships come and that's when championship rings come. Every season that I've been a part of, it's always been like this."

There is room for improvement, as there is with every aspect of the game as the season progresses, but Sunday's game was a step in the right direction.

Although improvement in the pass rush has been the main focal point for those watching this team, a flying-under-the-radar positive in the game was this unit's ability to limit explosives.

Stopping big plays has been a part of Atlanta's success on the defensive side of the ball all year. Atlanta is tied with Philadelphia for second in the NFL in opponent big plays, which are plays of 20-or-more yards, having only allowed 23 this season. Kansas City has only allowed 17 of such plays, the league lead.

It's no secret the Falcons secondary has been a threat this season with impact players like Jessie Bates III, who's play we we dove into last week.

Both of Bates' interceptions this year have come on deep throws, according to Next Gen Stats. His hawk percentage on deep throws is 100% when he is the nearest defender in coverage. He also has a team-best target EPA on deep passes (-3.7). Meanwhile, fellow safety Justin Simmons has been targeted twice on passes with an air yardage of 20-plus yards, allowing zero receptions and recording a target EPA of -2.0.

On top of those two, we've seen cornerback Mike Hughes and nickel Dee Alford take it up a notch this season and be playmakers in deep coverage as well.

Hughes has been targeted five times this season on deep passes and has not allowed a single reception, forcing a tight window on 80% of those targets, according to Next Gen Stats. Alford has been targeted three times this season on deep passes and has not allowed a single reception. Instead, he has recorded two passes defended and forced a tight window on 66.7% of those throws.

Atlanta native A.J. Terrell has continued to be a force in the pass game as well, notching two interceptions entering Week 10, the most he's had in a single season since 2021 when he had three. In eight targets on deep passes, Terrell has recorded an interception and two passes defensed, forcing a 27.5% completion percentage on deep throws.

Assistant head coach/defense Jerry Gray told reporters Thursday that he's seen Terrell really progress this season in the way everyone hoped to see.

"I think you've seen a guy that's playing with more confidence, not afraid to make a play," Gray said. "That's a big difference. When you are afraid to make a play, you're very cautious (and) you don't take any chances."

Atlanta leads the league in opponent passing attempts of 21-or-more air yards, according to Stats LLC. They have forced a league-best opponent passer rating of 38.5 on attempts of 21-or-more air yards. Atlanta's opponents have attempted 24 throws of 21-plus air yards and have only completed six, per Stats LLC.

The Falcons have only allowed 18 completions of 20-plus yards, the third-fewest in the NFL behind Kansas City (15) and Tennessee (17), and opponents have only averaged 26.2 yards per 20-plus-yard pass, the second-fewest in the league.

It seems that teams are seeing the success of this secondary and aren't leaning into explosive passes as much due to the core of the "Crash Out Crew" (the self-imposed nickname of the Falcons' secondary).

Continuing to limit explosive plays, especially in the pass, is going to be a key for this defense moving forward. But with the playmakers they have on this side of the ball and the way those players are playing in 2024, the Falcons are trending in the right direction.