FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — Turn on the tape.

This is a refrain heard often used in NFL circles when discussing impact players. Their influence on the game is undeniable when you turn on the tape. You can't help but notice them. These are the players that teams have to game plan for or around. Jessie Bates III is a player who fits this description. Turn on the tape, look at the stat sheet or ask opposing coaches and players, Bates is seemingly always around the football and has a knack for making timely plays.

"He is amazing, isn't he?" Raheem Morris said after Atlanta's Week 5 win against Tampa Bay. "When he's out there and he makes some of these plays, and it has happened every single week, you can pick out a significant play from Jessie Bates. ... He just makes timely plays, and he's one of those people that just needs the ball, not just wants it."

This week, we wanted to look at quantifying Bates' impact, but there isn't one single statistic or note that fully encompasses the impact he can have on a game. This got us thinking, quarterbacks have QB ratings and ESPN's QBR but there isn't a defensive equivalent. Can we create something that serves a similar purpose for defensive players?

We settled on a handful of metrics that illustrate the impact an individual defensive player can have on a game: Interceptions, forced fumbles, fumble recoveries, sacks, tackles for loss and tackles short of the sticks on third or fourth down.

Those statistics can be grouped into a couple of different buckets. The first is takeaways or turnovers, which includes interceptions, forced fumbles and fumble recoveries. By name, those plays either give the defensive team possession or a chance at possession in the case of a forced fumble.

The next would be get-off-the-field plays, instances where the defender tackles the ball carrier short of the line to gain on either third or fourth down. Thus, getting the defense off the field by forcing a punt, turnover on downs or a field goal. The final group we'll call setback plays. Those would be sacks or tackles for loss that set the offense back and make it harder for them to continue to move the ball down the field.

Adding up these defensive impact plays, or DIP, gives us our tailor-made metric for measuring how often a player is making his presence felt on the field. It comes as no surprise that Bates has been the most impactful Falcons' defender, registering 10 defensive impact plays this season with three forced fumbles, two interceptions, one fumble recovery, one tackle for loss and three tackles short of the sticks on third or fourth down.

Fellow defensive back Mike Hughes has also registered 10 DIP thanks to his team-high seven tackles short of the line to gain on third and fourth down. Hughes ranks tied for 12 in the league with those key situational tackles despite playing the fewest third and fourth down snaps of any player ranking in the top 25. Grady Jarrett (9.5), Matthew Judon (9.5) and James Smith-Williams (8) round out the top five Falcons.

While Bates' impact on the Falcons is clear, simply adding up all these defensive stats doesn't tell the full story. It gives an outsized advantage to front seven players and pass rushers in particular with nine of the top-10 players in DIP this season being defensive linemen or edge-rushing linebackers. In this instance, sacks and tackles for loss — while important — tip the scales.

To adjust for this, we'll add weights for each metric to generate a weighted-DIP measure.

According to Tru Media, interceptions are the most influential defensive play by expected points added. In 2024, teams are averaging negative-4.3 EPA per play on interceptions, and dating back to 2000 that number holds relatively steady at minus-4 EPA/per play. With that in mind, we'll assign interceptions the highest weight of any of the metrics. Followed by forced fumbles and fumble recoveries as an offense losing a fumble has generated a similar loss in EPA per play for the offense both this season and dating back to 2000, as far back as Tru Media's statistics go. That makes our turnover or takeaway bucket of plays the most valuable.

Next are our get-off-the-field plays, or stopping the offense short of the first down on third or fourth down.

And finally sacks and tackles for loss. That might seem convenient, to assign sacks a lower value when the team is struggling to record them, however according to Tru Media, sacks are generating negative-1.7 EPA per play this season and have generated an average of minus-1.6 EPA per play since 2000. Turnovers are about 60% more impactful by expected points added than sacks.

Weighted DIP still isn't perfect. Players with multiple sacks still rank high but it normalizes things.

For example, by DIP, T.J. Watt is the most impactful defender in the NFL. That doesn't change with weighted DIP, but the gaps between players are much closer because sacks and tackles for loss don't create as much of an outsized advantage. Zeroing in on the safeties shows where Bates shines.

Bates ranks fourth among defensive backs and third among safeties in weighted DIP at 1.9. He trails fellow safeties Xavier McKinney (2.65) and Kerby Joseph (2.00). But while those two have six and five interceptions respectively, Bates has made an impact across the board. He has registered every one of these impact stats except a sack. That shouldn't be surprising as Atlanta leans heavily on his coverage skills.

According to Next Gen Stats, Bates aligns 10.4 yards from the line of scrimmage on average and has just 10 pass-rush snaps this season. Although he has generated three pressures, so he's a bit of a master of all trades.

Our foray into stat creation aside, Bates' impact on the Falcons and his case for being one of the top defensive players in the NFL today remains strong.

Bates is at the center of a Falcons defense that prides itself on limiting explosive passes. Through eight games, Atlanta is holding opposing quarterbacks to the lowest passer rating in the NFL on throws of 20-plus yards at 38.3. Opponents have completed just five passes of 20-or-more yards on Bates and company, registering a completion percentage over expectation of negative-7.5%. Additionally, opposing offenses have a 25% success rate and minus-.28 EPA per dropback on attempts of 20-plus yards.

Opponents have thrown at Bates downfield to their detriment.

His two interceptions on deep throws are tied for the second-most in the NFL this season and according to Next Gen Stats, Bates has been the nearest defender on just two downfield targets. In total, Bates has been targeted on just 8% of his coverage snaps and has a coverage success rate of 60%. Bates has also allowed a CPOE of minus-4.3% and an EPA per target of negative-.25.

Whether you turn on the tape, look at traditional statistics, advanced statistics, or our attempt at creating a statistic, one thing holds true. Bates is an impact player.

A look back over October

Atlanta has had its best start to the season since 2018. The team is 5-3 up to this point, looking to improve to six wins with another NFC opponent on the horizon on Sunday.

It's no secret that the club has had its ups and downs, some could argue in all three phases, but Atlanta has seen consistent progression as all units are finding their groove at this point in the season, specifically in this last month, as the team went 3-1 in October.

Atlanta led the league in passing yards per game (295.3), ranked third in yards per game (434.0) and fourth in points per game (29.8), a jump from last season when the team was eighth in passing yards per game (250.8), sixth in yards per game (275.8) and 25th in points per game (16.6) in that same span. As we move into the final few months of regular season play, let's recap how the Falcons have fared in the month of October.

To start the month, the club hosted NFC South foe in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football in Week 5. Atlanta came out on top with a 36-30 overtime win, marking the club's first overtime victory since Week 8 of the 2022 season over Carolina. The Falcons totaled 550 total yards of offense with over 500 coming in the pass game, which marked and still holds as the season's best. On the other side of the ball, the defense forced two fumbles (thanks to Bates) and recovered one (a thanks to Kaden Elliss).

After a thrilling win, the club traveled to Bank of America Stadium to play its final game of the back-to-back-to-back NFC South showdown, facing the Carolina Panthers. The club got its third win in a row in Charlotte, defeating the Panthers 38-20 to extend their lead in the all-time series, 37-32.

Atlanta really activated its run game in Carolina, rushing for 198 yards, the club's highest rushing total of 2024. The duo of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier were clearly hard to stop. Robinson recorded his first career multi-rushing touchdown game and Allgeier led the team with 18 carries for 105 yards and a touchdown, marking his third career game with over 100 yards on the ground. All three of his 100-yard rushing games have come against NFC South opponents. He must love playing the South, right?

Atlanta then returned home to face another NFC opponent in the Seattle Seahawks. Though the team totaled 117 yards on the ground in the first half, the most the club has had in the first half since Week 15 of the 2016 season, the team struggled in pass rush and failed to limit explosives against the No. 1 passing offense in the NFL, ultimately falling 34-14.

The team did not let the loss linger as they bounced back in the second matchup of the season against the Buccaneers, defeating the club 31-26, moving Atlanta to 4-0 against the NFC South for the first time since 2014.

In the matchup, the offense totaled 394 yards of offense and reached the end zone four times. The defense recorded three turnovers: two interceptions (again, a big thanks to Bates and A.J. Terrell) and a fumble recovery (Bates again? A true playmaker).

Many milestones were reached in October for the playmakers on this team. One even has the month nicknamed after him. Here's to you, Kirk Cousins. Let's take a look into the impact a few have had over these last four weeks and on the season as whole.

Kirktober

Historically, Cousins has been particularly good in October. In his career, he's won NFC Offensive Player of the Month and NFC Offensive Player of the Week three times in the month of October, including twice this past month for his efforts in Weeks 5 and 8.

This month, Cousins has passed for a league-leading 1,242 yards, completing 108-of-152 passes for 10 touchdowns and a passer rating of 109.0, ranking top five in all of these categories.

Cousins eclipsed 500 yards for the first time in his career, setting a franchise record for most passing yards in a game (Week 5 vs. Tampa Bay) and was one of two quarterbacks (Lamar Jackson) to throw at least four touchdowns in multiple games in October, according to TruMedia.

With both of his four-touchdown games coming against the Buccaneers, he became the first Falcons quarterback to throw eight touchdown passes against the same opponent in a single season. Atlanta's Week 8 win at Tampa Bay marked Cousins' 10th career game with at least three touchdown passes and a passer rating of 140-or-higher (145.9), becoming the sixth quarterback in NFL history with at least 10 such career games, joining Tom Brady (21 games), Peyton Manning (20), Aaron Rodgers (20), Drew Brees (18) and Tony Romo (10).

London Calling

We've already taken a deeper look at Drake London and his impact on this team as a whole this season as he continues to be on the rise, but another name that has raised some ears – particularly in October – is Darnell Mooney.

The receiving duo of London and Mooney has been a threat this season. The Falcons are one of three teams (Tampa Bay and Cincinnati) who have multiple players with three-or-more receiving touchdowns, according to TruMedia. In October alone, the duo is tied for fifth in the NFL in receiving touchdowns, with both having recorded three each.

London has caught a league-high 11 receptions on targets with a sub-50% completion probability this season, according to Next Gen Stats. He has gained 132 yards, a touchdown and six first downs across his 11 receptions.

Meanwhile, Mooney has traveled 9,429 yards this season, the most of any offensive player. He has played on 469 offensive snaps, the third-most of any offensive skill player, according to Next Gen Stats.

If both of these pass catchers continue the path they're going this season, they could consistently be a force in this league.

Threat(s) on the ground

The Falcons have seen the ground game come to life, specifically in the last four weeks. And it may be something some have overlooked with the success in the pass game happening simultaneously. Both Robinson and Allgeier have been a problem that defenses are struggling to contain on the ground this season.

According to Next Gen Stats, Atlanta is the only team in the league with two players in the league's top-15 in rushing yards over expected: Allgeier (13th, 57 RYOE) and Robinson (14th, 56 RYOE). Robinson (13.28 mph) and Tyler Allgeier (13.20 mph) have also recorded the fourth- and fifth-fastest average speeds on carries, respectively, in 2024.

Robinson has reached at least 15 miles per hour on 27.6% of his carries, the highest percentage among running backs with at least 50 carries, according to Next Gen Stats. Robinson has also recorded a 57.6% success rate on under-center runs this season, the highest rate among 36 running backs with at least 30 carries. He has gained 176 yards and scored a touchdown across 33 such carries, resulting in a 5.3 yards per carry average, the seventh-most among the same group of 36 running backs.

In a quick look ahead, the Dallas Cowboys' defense has given up the most touchdowns (11) and allowed the second-highest success rate (49.3%) against under-center runs this season – something to watch on Sunday.

In October, Robinson ranked fourth in yards from scrimmage (431). He has already matched his single-season high of four rushing touchdowns in 2024, with all four coming in October. The second-year back also recorded his first multi-rushing touchdown game against the Carolina Panthers.

The Falcons have only played in eight games this season, and offensively they've proven to be a force to be reckoned with. The team is on its way to "Outrun the South," with a 4-0 record against the in the division and will have played two division opponents twice before the Week 12 bye. Once the club hits its final stretch of games in the playoff push following, how teams plan to contain these playmakers will be something to watch.