FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — We're going to switch things up a little bit this week. Rather than focusing on stats from last week's game, we're looking at relevant stats heading into Atlanta's matchup with New Orleans. What are the challenges the Saints present and some potential predictors of success for Atlanta?
Let's start with the good guys. A key to success for Atlanta will be its ability to win on early downs. It's no secret the Falcons have struggled on third down this season, as we alluded to last week. One way to fix that is to pick up first downs on first and second down. Now, we're not advocating for a full-on Canadian football approach here. The more effective Atlanta is on early downs, the more favorable third-down situations the team will find itself in.
The good news for Atlanta is that the team has been very good on first down through three games. According to Next Gen Stats, the Falcons rank fourth in the NFL in first-down success rate (48.8%) behind Cincinnati, Detroit and Kansas City. That first-down success has been driven by quarterback Kirk Cousins, who leads the NFL in success rate on first-down passes (68.8%).
Cousins has completed 78.1% of his passes and is averaging 9.0 yards per attempt and 8.3 air yards per attempt, good for 0.23 expected points added per dropback.
Additionally, his +8.7-completion percentage over expectation ranks third in the NFL through three weeks. Part of that success is a result of the Falcons commitment to their run game.
Atlanta has run the ball on 57.9% of its first-down plays this season, which has likely impacted how defenses are playing and opened up opportunities in the pass game. Against the Saints, the Falcons will need to continue their run of form on first down, and while that might suggest a lean towards throwing the ball, Atlanta can't and won't abandon the run game.
New Orleans has been one of the top defenses in the league on first down, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete just 59.1% of their passes for a 62.4 passer rating. Overall, New Orleans has a 64.3 defensive success rate on first down, so it will be a little bit of a strength-on-strength situation on Sunday. The best way for the Falcons to impact this defense though, is to keep the game close.
The Saints defense has faced a total of 33 opponent offensive drives. On 21 of those drives, New Orleans has had at least a 10-point lead. The Saints defense has played 64% or nearly two-thirds of its plays with a two-score lead at minimum. That allows you to do many different things on defense, but it also limits what the offense can afford to do.
On the 21 drives they've faced while holding at least a 10-point lead, New Orleans has a 58.7% defensive success rate, has allowed just 1.19 points per drive and forced a three-and-out from the offense on 47% of drives. The Saints have faced only two drives when trailing or tied. The Falcons must keep the game close and force the Saints to play more like their Week 3 game than what we saw out of them in Week 1 and 2.
Playing with a lead has not only set up the Saints for defensive success but the impact those leads have had on the Saints offense is clear.
Over the first three weeks, 59 of New Orleans' 70 dropbacks have come with a pre-snap winning percentage of 50% or higher. The Saints have attempted the fewest passes in the NFL this season, a testament to how out of hand their first two games got. They've been successful running the ball, so that has certainly helped, but they've been in game scripts where they don't need to throw the ball.
Much like the offense needs to stay on the field, the defense will need to get off of it. That starts with slowing down Alvin Kamara and the Saints run game. New Orleans has posted the third-most runs where the ball carrier reaches 15 miles per hour. Saints runners getting up to speed puts defenders in some difficulty when trying to stop that momentum.
As a result, New Orleans ranks fifth in the NFL in yards after contact and 69% of their total rushing yardage has come after the first defender makes contact.
One interesting thing to note is that New Orleans hasn't been super explosive in the run game. They have posted an explosive run rate of 10.5%, that ranks 21st in the NFL. By contrast, Atlanta ranks fifth in explosive run rate with 16% of its runs going for 15 or more yards.
While the Saints certainly can be explosive, the Falcons can't afford to cede the leaky yards. Atlanta can't let two- or three-yard runs turn into six- and seven-yard runs. Atlanta has been pretty good at stopping both explosive runs and leaky yardage this season. The Falcons rank fifth in yards after contact per carry (2.7), tied with New Orleans, and have allowed the sixth-lowest explosive run rate in the NFL this season (8.1%).
New Orleans' recipe for success has been running the ball, throwing the ball short and then dialing up the deep shot.
The Saints rank ninth in the NFL in percentage of passes behind the line of scrimmage (26.2) and fourth in the league in deep passes, or throws of 20-plus yards, at 15.4%. They haven't attacked teams much in the short and intermediate areas of the field but their ability to run the ball and create favorable matchups through their short-passing game has opened up the deep shot and made the Saints a formidable offense.
The cliché with division games is to throw out the records, that likely still rings true this week, but in this instance it is more of a reference to the teams' tendencies over three games than their actual win-loss records. Atlanta can set itself up nicely moving forward with a division win on Sunday, but as usual that old familiar foe stands in the way.
Quick Hits
Dialing up the blitz
Atlanta's defense is ranked third in the league in blitz passing situations, forcing an opponent passer rating of 35.12, according to Next Gen Stats. Atlanta's defense has allowed just a 50% completion rate and recorded an interception and a sack in 14 blitz passing situations thus far this season.
Robinson on the run
Bijan Robinson has rushed for 196 yards through three games, with 155 of his yards coming from runs outside the tackles.
Since the start of last season, Robinson has accumulated 950 yards on outside-tackle runs, second only to Christian McCaffrey, who has 1,018 yards over this period, according to Next Gen Stats. Robinson has 254 scrimmage yards (127 per game) and three touchdowns (two receiving, one rushing) in his sole two games versus New Orleans in 2023. If he tallies at least 120 scrimmage yards on Sunday and one touchdown, it will mark his third game in a row with over 120 scrimmage yards and a touchdown.
Catching London
Drake London eclipsed 150 career receptions in Week 3 vs. Kansas City, tying Mike Pritchard as the third-fastest player in team history to reach that feat in 36 games, behind Julio Jones (31 games) and Calvin Ridley (34 games).
With a touchdown on Sunday against New Orleans, it will be the first time in London's career where he has scored a touchdown in three consecutive games. London could also become the fourth-fastest Falcon to reach 2,000 career receiving yards, doing so in 37 games if he reaches at least 93 receiving yards Sunday. He'd trail only Jones (27 games), Ridley (32 games) and Stacey Bailey (35 games).
Fastest Falcons to reach 150 receptions
| Player | Games |
|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 31 |
| Calvin Ridley | 34 |
| Drake London | 36 |
| Mike Pritchard | 36 |
Off the edge
Matthew Judon had 2.5 sacks in addition to three quarterback hits and two tackles for loss in his last game against New Orleans on Sept. 26, 2021, when he was with New England. He currently stands at 68 career sacks entering Sunday's game. With two more sacks, he'll have the ninth-most sacks (70) in the NFL since he entered the league in 2016.
Solid in the secondary
Justin Simmons has been targeted just six times on 81 coverage snaps this season, only allowing two receptions for 12 yards when he was the nearest defender in coverage, according to Next Gen Stats.
Simmons has allowed a 33.3% completion rate and has a team-best -9.4 target EPA, which takes into account net expected points added allowed when the player was targeted as the nearest defender. Additionally, Simmons (33.3%), Jessie Bates III (30.0%) and Mike Hughes (25.0%) all have a ball hawk rate of 25% or above, which takes into account the percentage of targets where the defender made a play on the football (pass defense or interception), according to Next Gen Stats.
The unit has only allowed five plays of 20-plus yards or more, tied for the second-best mark in the league. For a group that looks to continue to limit explosive plays in the pass, they certainly have the pieces to do it.
