You've probably heard the saying before.
Once is chance, twice is a coincidence and a third time is a pattern.
Well, what is it when it's the fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth or in the case of Sunday's loss to the Bucs, a ninth time? That's the number of games the Atlanta Falcons have blown leads this season.
I don't know what you call it – I'm sure there are a lot of different words and ways you could use to describe the team's inability to finish off their opponents – but I do know the end result.
And that is, change.
Change is coming, and it's why the Falcons have already interviewed two men for their general manager vacancy.
Blown leads have crushed this team, dating back to Super Bowl LI. And, not to dwell on the past, but blown leads have gutted this team in 2020 as well.
It's a big reason why the Falcons got off to an 0-5 start, prompting owner Arthur Blank to part ways with general manager Thomas Dimitroff and head coach Dan Quinn in October. Blank said he's tired of losing and has made it clear that he wants a new regime to install a culture of winning.
"I think we need to win, and that's what our fans are counting on, that's what they're signed up for," Blank said.
On Sunday, the Falcons led the Buccaneers by 17 points on two different occasions. Atlanta went up 17-0 right before halftime on Younghoe Koo's 32-yard field goal with 18 seconds left. Then, midway through the third quarter, Atlanta went up 24-7 when Matt Ryan drilled a 7-yard pass to Hayden Hurst in the middle of the end zone.
At that point, the Falcons' win probability was at 95.3 percent.
But, like eight other times this season, including four times when they had at least a 95 percent chance of winning, the Falcons – and their lead – crumbled.
How did it happen, especially after shutting out the Buccaneers for two quarters and holding Tom Brady and Co. to 60 total yards of offense in the first half?
Well, Brady and the Bucs came out and scored on five straight possessions, including four touchdowns.
- Touchdown: 7 plays, 80 yards (17-7, Falcons)
- Touchdown: 8 plays, 75 yards (24-14, Falcons)
- Touchdown: 7 plays, 76 yards (24-21, Falcons)
- Field Goal: 9 plays, 41 yards (24-24, Falcons)
- Touchdown: 4 plays, 78 yards (31-27, Buccaneers)
The Falcons surrendered 31 points over the final 30 minutes and, according to Pro Football Reference, became the third team since 1940 to have multiple games in a season where they led by 17-plus at halftime and lose.
It's tempting to look at some of those games and think the Falcons are closer to being a contender or are better than their 4-10 record would indicate. It's easy to think about the onside kick against the Cowboys or the accidental roll into the end zone against the Lions and think they should have more wins.
That would be a mistake.
There's another old saying: You are what your record says you are.
This is who the Falcons are.
"It's called lack of winning," Blank said of the Falcons' struggles over the few seasons. "So, the problems we have to solve are all of the problems that are ahead of us that keep us from winning."
Who will ultimately solve those problems has yet to be determined, but the consequences and expectations have been made clear.
Change is coming.
Get an inside look at the matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers with top photos from Week 15.
A general view of the field is shown before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons safety Sharrod Neasman #41 celebrates after sacking Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady #12 during the second quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley #18 in action during the fourth quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons linebacker Deion Jones #45 sacks Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady #12 during the first half on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons running back Ito Smith #25 smiles during pregame against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Russell Gage #83 dives for an incomplete pass during the fourth quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons safety Sharrod Neasman #41 sacks Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady #12 on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons tight end Hayden Hurst #81 scores a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons punter Sterling Hofrichter #4 is shown during the against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons offensive guard Chris Lindstrom #63 in action during the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley #18 is shown in the tunnel before taking the field against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons defensive end Steven Means #55 takes the field before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Russell Gage #83 scores a touchdown during the first quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons running back Ito Smith #25 in action during the second quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Russell Gage #83 scores a touchdown during the first quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett #97 is shown before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley #18 in actin during the second quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons safety Sharrod Neasman #41 celebrates after sacking Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady #12 during the second quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Laquon Treadwell #80 in action during the second quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons safety Sharrod Neasman #41 sacks Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady #12 during the second quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons fullback Keith Smith #40 in action during the second quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons linebacker Deion Jones #45 is shown during the second quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett #97 in action during the first quarter during the first quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons running back Brian Hill #23 in action during the first quarter during the first quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons tight end Luke Stocker #88 celebrates after making a catch during the first quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons linebacker Mykal Walker #43 in action during the first quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons running back Brian Hill #23 in action during the first quarter during the first quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett #97 celebrates after sacking Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady #12 during the fourth quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Russell Gage #83 dives for an incomplete pass during the fourth quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley #18 in action during the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons linebacker Foye Oluokun #54 in action during the fourth quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Antonio Brown #81 celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo #7 celebrates after making a field goal during the fourth quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 in action during the fourth quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons cornerback Tyler Hall #44 tackles Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Kenjon Barner #44 dfourth quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley #18 in action during the fourth quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons cornerback Tyler Hall #44 reacts after tackling Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Kenjon Barner #44 dfourth quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons cornerback Tyler Hall #44 tackles Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Kenjon Barner #44 dfourth quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons cornerback Tyler Hall #44 tackles Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Kenjon Barner #44 dfourth quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons linebacker LaRoy Reynolds #59 reacts during the third quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons running back Brian Hill #23 in action during the third quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons safety Sharrod Neasman #41 celebrates after he sacks Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady #12 during the second quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 in action during the third quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons safety Sharrod Neasman #41 celebrates after he sacks Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady #12 during the second quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 in action during the second quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons safety Sharrod Neasman #41 sacks Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady #12 during the second quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons safety Sharrod Neasman #41 sacks Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady #12 during the second quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley #18 celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the second quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 in action during the second quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons linebacker Deion Jones #45 sacks Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady #12 during the second quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 in action during the first quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 takes the field before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett #97 takes the field before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons strong safety Keanu Neal #22 in action during the first quartercagainst the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Fans are shown before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley #18 warms up before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons tight end Hayden Hurst #81 warms up before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons running back Brian Hill #23 warms up before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 warms up before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 warms up before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 warms up before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons running back Ito Smith #25 warms up before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons running back Todd Gurley #21 warms up before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons fullback Keith Smith #40 warms up before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons tight end Hayden Hurst #81 celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the third quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones #11 is shown during warm ups before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons tight end Hayden Hurst #81 scores a touchdown during the third quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons fullback Keith Smith #40 warms up before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo #7 warms up before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Russell Gage #83 scores a touchdown during the first quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons tight end Hayden Hurst #81 scores a touchdown during the third quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons running back Todd Gurley #21 warms up before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Russell Gage #83 scores a touchdown during the first quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Russell Gage #83 scores a touchdown during the first quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
A general view of the field with "Thank You Fans" is shown on the halo board before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on 12 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons take the field before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons punter Sterling Hofrichter #4 warms up before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons tight end Jaeden Graham #87 and wide receiver Calvin Ridley #18 celebrate a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with tight end Hayden Hurst #81 on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley #18 scores a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley #18 scores a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 runs out of the tunnel before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons fullback Keith Smith #40 runs out of the tunnel before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 celebrates a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with tight end Hayden Hurst #81 on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons tight end Hayden Hurst #81 scores a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons tight end Luke Stocker #88 celebrates a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with tight end Hayden Hurst #81 on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons running back Ito Smith #25 runs the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons tight end Hayden Hurst #81 scores a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo #7 high-fives long snapper Josh Harris #47 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley #18 makes a catch against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons linebacker Foye Oluokun #54 gets to Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady #12 on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons safety Sharrod Neasman #41 sacks Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady #12 on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett #97, Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle Tyeler Davison #96 and Atlanta Falcons defensive end Dante Fowler Jr. #56 defend against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 looks to pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Laquon Treadwell #80 runs the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 celebrates a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with wide receiver Laquon Treadwell #80 and wide receiver Calvin Ridley #18 on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons safety Sharrod Neasman #41 sacks Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady #12 on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Russell Gage #83 makes a catch against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons linebacker Deion Jones #45 sacks Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady #12 during the first half on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley #18 makes a cut while running the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons running back Brian Hill #23 celebrates a touchdown with wide receiver Calvin Ridley #18 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons linebacker Deion Jones #45 sacks Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady #12 during the first half on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Russell Gage #83 makes a catch against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
The defensive backs huddle before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons linebacker Deion Jones #45 sacks Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady #12 during the first half on December 20, 2020.
The defensive line huddles during pregame against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
The Atlanta Falcons run out of the tunnel before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
A Falcons fan holds a sign before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Arthur M. Blank looks on during pregame against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 looks on before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons running back Todd Gurley #21 smiles during pregame against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 looks on before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons linebacker Deion Jones #45 talks to Tampa Bay Buccaneers inside linebacker Devin White #45 during pregame against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons defensive end Steven Means #55 comes out of the tunnel before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones #11 talks to Josh Blank during pregame against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons linebacker Foye Oluokun #54 looks on during pregame against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons strong safety Keanu Neal #22 puts on his helmet during pregame against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons tight end Hayden Hurst #81 looks on during pregame against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons strong safety Keanu Neal #22 looks on during pregame against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons linebacker Deion Jones #45 looks on during pregame against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons strong safety Keanu Neal #22 looks on during pregame against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons running back Brian Hill #23 smiles during pregame against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones #11 smiles before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 runs out of the tunnel before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Russell Gage #83 scores a touchdown in the first half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 runs out of the tunnel before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons tight end Luke Stocker #88 celebrates with kicker Younghoe Koo #7 after a field goal against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley #18 reacts after a play against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons tight end Hayden Hurst #81 scores a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons tight end Hayden Hurst #81 scores a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons center Alex Mack #51 prepares to snap the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons tight end Hayden Hurst #81 scores a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons tight end Jaeden Graham #87 gestures during the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 looks on against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
The Atlanta Falcons prepare to kick off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 runs the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley #18 gets tapped on the helmet by Jeff Ulbrich against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 runs the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Bill Roberts, a season ticket member since 1976, pulls the train horn against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo #7 kicks a field goal against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Russell Gage #83 makes a catch against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 passes against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons center Alex Mack #51 prepares to snap the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo #7 kicks a field goal against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Schaub #8 watches from the sideline against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Freddie Falcon waives the Rise Up flag before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Laquon Treadwell #80 makes a catch against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan #2 prepares to pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
Arthur M. Blank stands with his son Josh Blank before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 20, 2020.
