FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — So, you're telling me there's a chance?
Yes. According to the New York Times playoff simulator, there's actually a 12% chance the Atlanta Falcons make the 2023 postseason field. They're 7-8 entering Week 17, with a road contest on tap Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS) against the Chicago Bears.
"I've been around this league for long enough to know what's supposed to happen usually doesn't," Falcons head coach Arthur Smith said. "The only thing we can control is getting ready to go on the road to play a good Bears team."
Before getting deep into the weeds, let's take a look at the NFC South standings after 16 weeks of play.
| Overall Record | Division Record | Conference Record | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | 8-7 | 3-1 | 6-4 |
| Falcons | 7-8 | 3-2 | 4-6 |
| Saints | 7-8 | 2-2 | 4-6 |
| Panthers | 2-13 | 1-4 | 1-10 |
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers currently hold sole possession of the NFC South lead thanks to their overall record. The Falcons and New Orleans Saints are both only a game out, though, with the Falcons taking an advantage out of those two because Atlanta has the better division record at the moment. The Carolina Panthers were eliminated from contention after their Week 13 loss to the Buccaneers.
Nixing the Panthers, the schedule is as follows for the Falcons, Buccaneers and Saints.
- Falcons: Bears in Week 17, Saints in Week 18
- Buccaneers: Saints in Week 17, Panthers in Week 18
- Saints: Buccaneers in Week 17, Falcons in Week 18
The Buccaneers hold most of the power right now.
If the Buccaneers beat the Saints on Sunday, Tampa Bay clinches the NFC South division title. The Buccaneers would also do so if they tie the Saints and the Falcons lose to the Bears.
Say the Buccaneers lose to the Saints, though. And the Falcons beat the Bears. Then, the Falcons, Buccaneers and Saints all stand at 8-8 overall and 3-2 in the division. Well, even then, the Buccaneers would be in control because they hold the advantage in common games, the third divisional tiebreaker.
If the Buccaneers lose to the Saints and the Panthers, then whoever wins between the Falcons and Saints in Week 18 would claim the NFC South. It's easy to explain the Saints here: The win alone would guarantee the Saints the division title because then they'd have a 9-8 overall record, while the Falcons and Buccaneers would both be 8-9.
It's more difficult to explain the Falcons, because it depends on their own Week 17 outcome. If the Falcons beat the Bears and Saints, then the division title is Atlanta's with a 9-8 record for the same reason as New Orleans. If the Falcons lose to the Bears and beat the Saints, though, the division is all tied up at 8-9. The Falcons hold the tiebreaker in this case because of head-to-head records:
- Falcons vs. Saints/Buccaneers: 3-1
- Buccaneers vs. Falcons/Saints: 2-2
- Saints vs. Falcons/Buccaneers: 1-3
All that to say, here's what Falcons fans should hope for: Obviously, Falcons win out. Otherwise, Saints beat Buccaneers in Week 17. Buccaneers lose to Panthers in Week 18.
Becoming the wild-card team is also still an option, but a lot more has to happen for those chips to fall in the Falcons' favor since there are six teams — Falcons, Saints, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles — in the hunt for two spots.
Now, for the fun part. Allow me to dive into the numbers — or at least run the New York Times playoff simulator and share its findings. Below is each scenario and the Falcons' postseason chances if that specific situation were to happen.
NOTE: Simulation shows both divisional and wild-card playoff possibilities. The percentages may vary by 1-2% depending on the simulation ran.
NFC SOUTH; WEEK 17
- Falcons beat Bears, Saints beat Buccaneers – 26%
- Falcons beat Bears, Saints lose to Buccaneers – 13%
- Falcons lose to Bears, Saints beat Buccaneers – 19%
- Falcons lose to Bears, Saints lose to Buccaneers – 0%
NFC SOUTH; WEEKS 17-18
- Falcons beat Bears, Saints beat Buccaneers; Falcons beat Saints, Buccaneers beat Panthers – 27%
- Falcons beat Bears, Saints beat Buccaneers; Falcons beat Saints, Buccaneers lose to Panthers – 100%
- Falcons beat Bears, Saints beat Buccaneers; Falcons lose to Saints, Buccaneers beat Panthers – 0%
- Falcons beat Bears, Saints beat Buccaneers; Falcons lose to Saints, Buccaneers lose to Panthers – 0%
--
- Falcons beat Bears, Saints lose to Buccaneers; Falcons beat Saints, Buccaneers beat Panthers – 28%
- Falcons beat Bears, Saints lose to Buccaneers; Falcons beat Saints, Buccaneers lose to Panthers – 26%
- Falcons beat Bears, Saints lose to Buccaneers; Falcons lose to Saints, Buccaneers beat Panthers – 0%
- Falcons beat Bears, Saints lose to Buccaneers; Falcons lose to Saints, Buccaneers lose to Panthers – 0%
--
- Falcons lose to Bears, Saints beat Buccaneers; Falcons beat Saints, Buccaneers beat Panthers – 0%
- Falcons lose to Bears, Saints beat Buccaneers; Falcons beat Saints, Buccaneers lose to Panthers – 100%
- Falcons lose to Bears, Saints beat Buccaneers; Falcons lose to Saints, Buccaneers beat Panthers – 0%
- Falcons lose to Bears, Saints beat Buccaneers; Falcons lose to Saints, Buccaneers lose to Panthers – 0%
--
- Falcons lose to Bears, Saints lose to Buccaneers; Falcons beat Saints, Buccaneers beat Panthers – 0%
- Falcons lose to Bears, Saints lose to Buccaneers; Falcons beat Saints, Buccaneers lose to Panthers – 0%
- Falcons lose to Bears, Saints lose to Buccaneers; Falcons lose to Saints, Buccaneers beat Panthers – 0%
- Falcons lose to Bears, Saints lose to Buccaneers; Falcons lose to Saints, Buccaneers lose to Panthers – 0%
Take a monochrome look at the matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and the Indianapolis Colts during Week 16.
Atlanta Falcons linebacker Kaden Elliss #55 reacts after a sack during the second quarter of the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons cornerback Dee Alford #20 arrives prior to the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons safety Jessie Bates III #3 leads the huddle before the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons defensive lineman Calais Campbell #93 warms up before the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by AJ Reynolds/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Taylor Heinicke #4 warms up before the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson #7 rushes during the first quarter of the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Freddie Falcon zip lines from the roof before the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by AJ Reynolds/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons safety Jessie Bates III #3 prior to the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Johnnie Izquierdo/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons inside linebacker Nate Landman #53 reacts during the first quarter of the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts #8 celebrates after a touchdown during the first quarter of the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
The Weiner Dog Race during half time during the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts #8 catches a touchdown pass during the first quarter of the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Johnnie Izquierdo/Atlanta Falcons)
General view of fans during the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons safety Jessie Bates III #3 intercepts the ball during the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by AJ Reynolds/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier #25 arrives before the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons cornerback Jeff Okudah #1 makes a tackle during the first quarter of the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Johnnie Izquierdo/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts #8 during the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier #25 runs with the ball during the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons tight end Jonnu Smith #81 runs after a catch during the third quarter of the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons safety Richie Grant #27 sacks the quarterback during the fourth quarter of the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Taylor Heinicke #4 throws the ball during the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons defensive back DeMarcco Hellams #37 reacts after an incomplete pass during the first half of the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
The Grinch during the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons defensive lineman Zach Harrison #96 makes a tackle during the fourth quarter of the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Karl Moore/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell #24 during the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons inside linebacker Nate Landman #53 makes a tackle during the first half of the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson #7 runs with the ball during the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
The Weiner Dog Race during half time during the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson #7 runs with the ball during the second quarter of the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo #6 kicks a field goal during the first half of the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Karl Moore/Atlanta Falcons)
A detail of cleats during the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier #25 scores a touchdown during the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons linebacker Kaden Elliss #55 sacks the quarterback during the second quarter of the Week 16 Game against the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 24, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
