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Analysis: Falcons aren't alone with 1-score games this season

All four of the Falcons’ games in 2024 have been decided by eight points or fewer, and they aren’t the only team that has endured that close-call stress. 

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — Comfortability is a rare luxury in the NFL, one the Atlanta Falcons have not yet been blessed with in 2024.

All four of their games so far have been decided by a single possession. Basically, they've all come down to the wire.

"Welcome to the National Football League," Falcons head coach Raheem Morris said. "I've been in the league since 2002, and I feel like they all end the same way or around the same way."

Let's quickly recap how each of Atlanta's games have played out.

In Week 1, the Falcons lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers, 18-10. The Steelers' last scoring play was a 25-yard field goal by kicker Chris Boswell that came with 29 seconds remaining. It only padded Pittsburgh's lead but also would have forced Atlanta into a 2-point conversion had it managed to score in the limited time left.

Week 2 saw the Falcons defeat the Philadelphia Eagles, 22-21, after wide receiver Drake London caught a 7-yard touchdown pass from quarterback Kirk Cousins with 34 seconds remaining. Philadelphia had a brief opportunity to retake the lead, but an interception by Atlanta safety Jessie Bates III prevented that.

The scale tipped back in the opponent's favor in Week 3, as the Falcons fell to the Kansas City Chiefs, 22-17. Atlanta kicker Younghoe Koo was the last to put points on the board off a 54-yard field goal, but he did so with 12 minutes and 52 seconds remaining. The Falcons couldn't bridge the gap after that.

Last but not least, the closest call came Week 4. The Falcons beat the New Orleans Saints, 26-24, thanks to a game-winning 58-yard field goal from Koo. The Saints really didn't have a chance to answer.

"It's about having that mental stamina enough to go out and push and pursue and get your guys to go out and finish," Morris said. "They've certainly given me a nice chance to go out and finish with our guys. They fight every single week, and I'm proud of them."

That puts the Falcons at their current 2-2 record that could look a lot different (in either direction) had a few plays landed differently.

Atlanta isn't alone with its close-game tendencies, though. There are three other teams that have had all four of their games dictated by one score, too. The Chicago Bears and Indianapolis Colts have taken to the same 2-2 fate, while the Chiefs are 4-0.

Take a look at their results.

WEEK BEARS COLTS CHIEFS
1 CHI 24, TEN 17 HOU 29, IND 27 KAN 27, BAL 20
2 HOU 19, CHI 13 GNB 16, IND 10 KAN 26, CIN 25
3 IND 21, CHI 16 IND 21, CHI 16 KAN 22, ATL 17
4 CHI 24, LAR 18 IND 27, PIT 24 KAN 17, LAC 10

What's interesting, though, is despite all these tight scores, among these four teams, only two have won off a game-winning field goal. There was obviously Koo's kick against the Saints. And then kicker Harrison Butker clinched the Chiefs' 26-25 win against the Cincinnati Bengals.

In fact, there have only been five game-winning field goals (made with 10 seconds or less remaining) this season.

  1. Sept. 29: ATL 26, NOR 24 (Younghoe Koo 58-yard field goal with 0:07 remaining)
  2. Sept. 22: LAR 27, SFO 24 (Joshua Karty 37-yard field goal with 0:05 remaining)
  3. Sept. 15: WAS 21, NYG 18 (Austin Seibert 30-yard field goal with 0:04 remaining)
  4. Sept. 15: KAN 26, CIN 25 (Harrison Butker 51-yard field goal with 0:03 remaining)
  5. Sept. 8: MIA 20, JAX 17 (Jason Sanders 52-yard field goal with 0:04 remaining)

And yet, there have been 14 games this season determined by three points or fewer. Thirty-nine have fallen within the eight-point range.

All but one team has had to endure these nail-biting outcomes, and that is the Carolina Panthers. They have lost by at least 10 points three times and won once by 14 points.

Even the two undefeated teams flirted with defeat. The Chiefs have already been addressed. But the Minnesota Vikings, who are also 4-0, have had two games they only narrowly won.

This all just goes to show how small the margin of error is in the NFL.

"This is the game of three points," Morris said. "It's still Al Pacino, the game of inches, but it is so true in the National Football League. Very rarely do you see blowouts. Very rarely do you see two-score games And this league is no different. You get a couple every week, but, man, these things happen like that a lot."

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