Analysis: Chiefs dominate in September games since Patrick Mahomes became QB1

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — No need to wake the Atlanta Falcons up when September ends.

They're already up. They were left with no other choice considering their 2024 schedule.

"We have to step up to the challenge," Falcons safety Justin Simmons said. "End of story. You either rise to the occasion, or you fall."

The Falcons had to host their former head coach in Week 1, as Arthur Smith is now the Pittsburgh Steelers' offensive coordinator. They had to compete in their first prime-time game since 2022 on the road, at the Philadelphia Eagles no less. Those two games have left Atlanta 1-1, now entering a Week 3 contest against the reigning Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs. And then the Falcons face their currently undefeated NFC South rival in Week 4, when the New Orleans Saints come to town.

Talk about a serious September stretch.

"You're going to find out a lot about yourself early," Falcons inside linebacker Troy Andersen said. "Definitely some good teams that we have on the schedule and have had on the schedule. It's a great challenge to test yourself."

The Falcons lost to the Steelers, 18-10, but defeated the Eagles, 22-21.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, come to Atlanta with a clean 2-0 record.

In fact, Kansas City boasts the strongest September record ever since Patrick Mahomes became their starting quarterback in 2018, and that is 17-4, an 80.95% win rate. The Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams are tied for second best at 15-7 (68.18%). The Green Bay Packers are then rank fourth at 15-7-1 (65.22%).

The Falcons are further down on the NFL list, tying for 29th. They're 7-15. The Houston Texans are 7-14-1. Both crank out to a 31.82% win rate.

These September records, which all 32 can be found in the chart below, shouldn't be all that surprising considering some are reflective of each team's regular-season records.

For example, the Chiefs are 77-24 from 2018 to present day, which ranks No. 1 in the NFL during that time. The Bills are still No. 2, but the Rams are tied for No. 8. The Packers are No. 5.

Some, like the Chiefs, Bills and Packers, have been consistent. Others, such as the Rams, not so much.

For comparison sake, the Falcons are 40-61 in that same span. That places them at No. 24. So, they've been a little better than what September alone shows so far.

It's important to remember 2018 marks the start of all these stats because Mahomes truly changed the Chiefs' trajectory.

"He's definitely going to go down in the argument with the best of the best when you get into those arguments, when they happen whenever he's done," Falcons head coach Raheem Morris said. "And he's still going. He's going this week, and he's certainly a problem, no matter what. He's one of the best that we've seen in whatever generation you want to talk about."

Mahomes' accolades back that up, from being a two-time Associated Press MVP to a six-time Pro Bowler to many, many other recognitions throughout his career.

The Chiefs were a playoff team before Mahomes, making the field five times in the eight seasons before he took over as starter. But during his reign, the Chiefs have taken their success even further, appearing in four playoffs and winning three Super Bowls, including the last two.

Suffice to say, Atlanta has another challenge on tap Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Falcons-Chiefs matchup is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET. Another prime-time showdown.

"I'm really excited," Simmons said. "If you want to be the best, you got to play the best and you got to win against the best."