FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — The Falcons will wrap up a three-game division stretch this Sunday when they take on the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. But while the team's attention remains solely on the Panthers, today's Nerdy Birds isn't about the upcoming matchup.
With five games in the books, the 2024 season is a quarter of the way finished. That is a good sample size to evaluate, and that's exactly what we'll be doing today. Let's take a look back at some of the key numbers from the Falcons' first five games, starting with a player who has been crucial in each.
Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins has talked about his hopes for the Falcons to be an ascending team as the season progresses. This is a familiar refrain, as most coaches and players aim to be at their best at the end of the year leading into the playoffs. While that's a key ingredient to sustained success, it's also vital to win games early to set up that late-season run.
The first five weeks haven't been without their hurdles or cardiac-event-inducing moments but one thing about this team is certain, it is progressing. Offensively, the team has improved week to week, culminating in a monster performance on Thursday Night Football against Tampa Bay.
Atlanta's 550-yard output in Week 5 was the highest single-game yardage total in the NFL this season, and the highest since the Dallas Cowboys racked up 640 yards of total offense in Week 10 of last season. Thursday also marked the first time the Falcons have eclipsed 500 yards since Week 1 of 2020. It was their highest output since notching 571 yards against the Panthers in 2016, which has now become the Matt Ryan, Julio Jones 500-300 game, with Ryan throwing for a then-record 503 yards, 300 of them coming on passes to Jones. We'll touch a little more on the Thursday night game a little later. For now, let's dig into the offensive progression.
To illustrate Atlanta's offensive growth over the first five weeks we'll look at four stats. The stat first is basic but it shows a clear trend — total yards. Atlanta improved from 29th after gaining 226 yards in Week 1 to 10th at 357.4 yards per game over the five-game span. Of course, Week 5 played a significant role in that jump but the team steadily improved in the weeks prior to that explosive outing.
The same can be seen when looking at scoring rate and down-set conversion rate. Regarding the former, Atlanta ranked 29th in the league after scoring on just 20% of its drives in Week 1. However, Its scoring rate improved to 20th, 17th and now sits at 11th-best in the league at 42.9%. In fact, in Week 5, the Falcons led the entire league with a scoring rate of 63.6%. That's quite the turnaround. The increase shows that the offense isn't just generating empty yards. Each offense wants to score on every drive, but the steady progression up the ranks shows that things are starting to come together in a real way for the Falcons.
Falcons Offensive Improvement from Weeks 1-5 (NFL rank)
| Week | Total Offense | Pct. of Drives w/ Score | Down Conv. Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 226.0 yds (29) | 20.0% (29) | 62.5% (23) |
| Week 2 | 305.5 yds (18) | 36.8% (20) | 71.2% (12) |
| Week 3 | 307.3 yds (20) | 34.5% (20) | 71.8% (14) |
| Week 4 | 309.3 yds (19) | 36.8% (17) | 70.3% (17) |
| Week 5 | 357.4 yds (10) | 42.9% (11) | 72.8% (12) |
One of the biggest issues Atlanta faced in Week 1 was its inability to sustain drives, with a lot of that stemming from third-down woes. While third downs still caused some issues for Atlanta in the first few weeks, the team's ability to move the chains on first and second downs helped it climb the ranks in down-set conversion rate. Down-set conversion is the percentage of drives that result in either a first down or a touchdown. The better you are at sustaining drives, the better you are likely to be at finishing them with points. In fact, the top two teams in down set conversion rate — Washington and Baltimore — are also the top two teams in points scored this season.
Atlanta began the year ranked 23rd with a down-set conversion rate of 62.5% in Week 1. The Falcons have since jumped up to 12th with a conversion rate of 72.8% through five weeks, and they ranked second in the NFL with a rate of 80% in Week 5. The Falcons found themselves in the top half of the league in Weeks 2 and 3 also, which showed that the offense initially improved at sustaining drives but still struggled with scoring.
The final metric illustrative of Atlanta's rising performance on the offensive side of the football is expected points added per play. This advanced statistic shows how a team performs relative to expectation on any given play while also accounting for the fact that not all plays are equal. For example, a 10-yard run or completion on the opponent's 15-yard line would be expected to add more points than the same play from a team's own 25. EPA per play also accounts for variables like down and distance to the first down marker and gives a good representation of how an offense performs relative to those variables over the course of a game or season.
Much like the other stats we've looked at, the Falcons' EPA per play tells a similar story. According to Tru Media, Atlanta ranked 25th in the league after Week 1, generating -0.25 EPA per play. Not ideal. Over the course of the next four weeks, the Falcons' EPA per play value and rank rose steadily from -0.03 (17th) in Week 2 to 0.04 (10th) in Week 5. Once again, the Falcons' offensive performance in this metric in Week 5 — 19.6 EPA per play — wasn't only their best so far, it was the best in the league.
After five weeks these four metrics started to align and, as is often the case with an increasing sample size, a trend began to emerge. Atlanta ranks 10th in total offense, 11th in scoring rate, 12th in down-set conversion rate and 10th in EPA per play. That certainly looks like a progressing and ascending offense.
It's indisputable that one of the major factors in Atlanta's steadily improving offense is Cousins' own steady improvement. Despite a slow start against Pittsburgh, Cousins has improved week over week, and his performance in late-game situations shows why head coach Raheem Morris and the Falcons made the investment in bringing him to Atlanta.
Cousins has not only put together fourth-quarter comeback drives in each of Atlanta's three wins this season, but he has also steadily risen up the league leader boards over the first five weeks. Entering Week 6, Cousins ranks fifth in the NFL in passing yards (1,373) and EPA per dropback (+0.09), fourth in completion percentage over expectation (+4%), and third in air yards per target (7.9), per Next Gen Stats. His standing as a top passer in several metrics shows that while Atlanta's three wins have come down to the wire, the offense has been on the rise with each passing week.
One area where Cousins has been particularly effective is operating from a clean pocket. The veteran signal caller has thrown a league-high eight touchdowns without an interception when not pressured. Cousins' passer rating of 115.5 on such plays is tops in the league. He has completed 71% of his passes for a completion percentage over expectation of +2.9% and ranks second in the NFL with +0.32 EPA per dropback.
Overall, 124 of his 177 pass attempts have come with a clean pocket and he's been pressured on 33.5% of his dropbacks, which is the 10th lowest pressure rate faced by a quarterback this season. A quick look ahead to Sunday shows that Carolina's defense ranks in the bottom three of the league in completion percentage (78.5), yards per attempt (8.3) and touchdowns allowed (8) when not producing pressure on dropbacks. As has been the case throughout his career, when you keep Cousins clean, he produces at a very high level. That will be a key for the Falcons in Week 6.
Cousins' growing comfort level both in the offense and with his teammates has also played a significant role in Atlanta's improved play. That comfort level has helped the Falcons get more explosive over the first five weeks. After Week 1, the team managed just eight plays of 10-plus yards which ranked tied for 22nd in the league. That number has climbed to 73 such plays, which ranks fifth in the NFL. The Falcons have been searching for ways to be more explosive and they certainly found them in Week 5, leading the league with 20 plays of 10-plus yards and tying the Washington Commanders for the league lead with eight plays of 20-plus yards. Cousins also led the NFL in Week 5 with seven completions for more than 20 yards.
When you break franchise records set by Matt Ryan, you know the numbers are eye-popping, but it has been a steady progression to get there. The Falcons ranked 12th in explosive plays after Week 2, eighth after Week 3 and ninth after Week 4 before their Thursday Night outburst.
Cousins growing comfort with his pass catchers was on full display in Week 5 with seven different players catching at least three passes. Of those seven players, five caught all but one of their targets. His willingness to spread the ball around has created a bit of a rising tide lifts all boats situation for Atlanta's pass catchers. The Falcons are one of six teams to have three players with 20-or-more receptions this season. Entering Week 6, only the Seahawk's trio of DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett (79) have more combined receptions than Drake London, Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud (77).
Perhaps nowhere has Cousins' increasing comfort level yielded more fruitful results than with London. The third-year receiver set career highs in targets (13), receptions (12), passer rating when targeted (141.7), catch percentage (92.3) and receiving expected points added (13.3) in the Falcons Week 5 win against Tampa Bay.
While London has shown he can be a top-flight receiver over his first two seasons, Atlanta's struggle to find consistent quarterback play has held him back from realizing his full potential. Through five weeks, London appears to be in line for the breakout season many have expected. London has 352 yards on 32 receptions with three touchdowns and a catch rate over expectation of 10.3%. London catches nearly three quarters of the passes thrown in his direction and is averaging 2.1 yards per route and 9.8 air yards per target while receiving a 25.6% target share. He's earned Cousins' trust through his play, which has paid off in the quarterback posting a 109.5 passer rating when targeting London.
Consistency is Key
Atlanta's defense has shown steady production over the first five weeks of the season but, as with any team, there is room for improvement entering this next quarter of regular season play. The playmakers in this unit continue to show up when needed, though, figuring out ways to get to the ball and give the offense a chance to score. There are a few areas the team is focusing on as they continue to improve week to week, but also the consistency in others has shown through as the unit looks to create dominance every time they step out on the field.
Let's start with big plays by opponents. Teams have struggled to create big plays against this unit, whether on the ground or through the air. Currently, the club is first in the NFL in limiting opponent plays of 20-plus yards. The unit has only allowed 10 plays of 20-plus yards this season, the fewest in the league. The defense only allowed their first big-play touchdown in the overtime thriller win against Tampa Bay last week.
Defenses With Fewest Big Plays Allowed Through 5 Weeks
| Team | Big Runs (20+ yds) | Big Passes (20+ yds) | Big Plays (20+ yds) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| Denver | 4 | 8 | 12 |
| Kansas City | 1 | 11 | 12 |
| Cincinnati | 3 | 10 | 13 |
| LA Chargers | 2 | 11 | 13 |
Atlanta's safeties have been especially good this season, only allowing eight receptions on 13 targets, per Next Gen Stats. They have also limited opponents to a 39.7 passer rating when in coverage, with a minimum of five targets, the fourth-lowest rating in the league through the first five weeks of the season. The unit has notched a 69.2% coverage success rate, which is the percentage of targets when the nearest defender is in coverage that results in a successful play for the defense, when a defender is in coverage with a minimum of five targets, per Next Gen Stats.
It is no secret that Jessie Bates has made an incredible impact on the Falcons' defense since joining the team in 2023. In his first season with the club, he recorded career highs in tackles (132), forced fumbles (three) and a league-high-tying six interceptions, in addition to 11 passes defensed, the second most he's had in his career, ultimately leading him to his first Pro Bowl nod and his second All-Pro honor. This season alone, Bates has already posted 37 tackles, one interception and two forced fumbles, both of which happened last week versus Tampa Bay, and is one less than his career best in a season. He continues to be a force in the defensive backfield even with the addition of All-Pro safety Justin Simmons. Bates' ability to make impact plays in critical situations is one that hardly ever goes unnoticed. Since joining the club in 2023, Jessie Bates has recorded a 28.2% ball hawk rate, the third highest in the NFL, minimum 30 targets.
Defensive Coordinator Jimmy Lake said that Bates is one of the best safeties that he's ever been around and is a proven leader on this team.
"The closest thing that I've been around is Ronde Barber, who was a nickel and a corner that's always around the football," Lake said. "(He) has the ability to take the ball out of the sky, has the ability to force fumbles, has the ability to get everybody else lined up on a play that maybe we didn't just get coached up correctly to make sure that everybody's in position to make the tackle or make the play." Is he correct? It would be hard to argue that he's not. He somehow always finds the football.
Both Bates (28.6) and Justin Simmons (50.0) have recorded a 28%-or-higher ball hawk rate this season and are one of two safety duos (Lions) to do so with a minimum of four targets this season. Simmons has recorded a team-best target EPA of -9.4 according to Next Gen Stats, which represents the net expected points added allowed on plays when the player was targeted as the nearest defender. He also has only allowed two receptions on six targets, for a completion percentage of 33.3%, which is 35.6% lower than his expected completion percentage of 68.9% when targeted, per Next Gen Stats.
As a whole, the Falcons defense also ranks second in the league in air yards per attempt, holding opposing offenses to 5.6 yards per pass attempt, trailing only the Chargers (4.9 AY/A). They are also tied for seventh in yards per attempt, holding opponents to 6.4 yards, according to Next Gen Stats.
Atlanta's defense is a threat in the pass game, which has been clear to everyone. But an area in which many are hoping to see improvement is the pass rush. Through the first five weeks, Atlanta has a pressure rate of only 21.4% and has just five sacks with two coming in Week 1, one coming in Week 2 and one each coming in Weeks 4 and 5. Grady Jarrett and Matthew Judon lead the team with 1.5 sacks each. Dee Alford and David Onyemata have one each as well. Though many may be discouraged about this lack of production early on in the season as many other teams are already in the double-digit sack column, Lake says that each week, the pass rush is an emphasis and the team has to earn the right to rush the passer.
"Really, it starts there first. We've got to be better on first, second down, get an offense behind the chains, so now we can pin our penetrators back and get that pass rush. But, it's been an emphasis all offseason, into training camp, and as we're going through here to Week 6," he said, meaning in due time, we will see what this defense can do to cause that needed disruption.
As we've all seen, this unit has come up big time in critical situations with takeaways, big stops, and limiting opponents to only field goals at times this season. But as the offense gets rolling and is finding its groove, Atlanta's defense must continue to uphold its momentum as the unit takes on its third division opponent in a row in Carolina on Sunday and prepares for a long, steady season ahead of them.
