FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — The Falcons' 2024 season officially kicks off Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the predictions have already begun.
Atlanta made plenty of offseason changes, from a new head coach in Raheem Morris to a new quarterback in Kirk Cousins, and the additions have catapulted Atlanta into the national conversation.
The Falcons finished 7-10 in each of the previous three seasons. However, national analysts predict a better record this go around. Take a closer look at the projections:
- Date published: Sept. 1
- Projected win total: 9.6 wins
- Rank: No. 1 in NFC South | No. 15 in NFL
ESPN's NFL Nation has the Falcons winning upwards of nine games, which is a higher total than any other team in the NFC South. The staff also calculated a 67.4% chance of Atlanta making the playoffs.
ESPN's Analysis: "Atlanta signed Kirk Cousins, giving the franchise its best quarterback since Matt Ryan. He gives the team's young skill players — RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts — a chance to break out. — Marc Raimondi"
- Date published: Sept. 2
- Projected win total: 10.1 wins
- Rank: No. 1 in NFC South | No. 4 in NFC
NFL.com has the highest projected win total for the Falcons this season at just over 10 games. Frelund projects Atlanta to be NFC South champions, and she predicts the team will finish fourth in the conference behind the Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions, in that order.
Frelund's analysis: "Adding edge rusher Matthew Judon and safety Justin Simmons over consecutive days in mid-August boosted Atlanta's win total by 0.2 wins in just 24 hours."
- Date: Sept. 1
- Projected win total: 10 wins
- Rank: No. 1 in NFC South
Like other analysts, Brinson has the Falcons finishing with a 10-7 record. That would, in this projection, have the Falcons winning the NFC South for the first time since 2016. He has the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with nine wins, and the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers finishing with six wins.
Brinson's anaylsis: "It's hard not to be excited about the Falcons this year. Last year's team was a lot of frustration, with the top-10 offensive weapons on the roster largely underused."
- Date: Aug. 30
- Projected win total: 9.4 wins
- Rank: No. 1 in NFC South | No. 12 in NFL
The Athletic staff of NFL reporters has the Falcons winning at least nine games, too. While the average win total may be lower than others, they project the Falcons will win their division and finish with the 12th-best record in the league, which is the highest finish of any of these predictions.
The Athletic's Analysis: "If the Falcons don't win at least 10 games, they'll be disappointed, and they should be. — Josh Kendall"
- Date: Aug. 28
- Projected win total: 8 wins
- Rank: No. 2 (tied) in NFC South
Sports Illustrated has projected the lowest total in this roundup with eight wins. Orr has the Bucs taking the division title and winning nine games. In his projections, both the Falcons and Saints finish 8-9 and split the season series. Notably, though, Orr believes Atlanta is more than capable of outperforming his projections.
Orr's analysis: "I have Atlanta losing in Weeks 2 and 3 to the Eagles and Chiefs, respectively, and also to Denver and New Orleans in back-to-back road trips later on in the season. This schedule is nowhere near intimidating, and it will be their ability to prove me wrong on the latter games, the winnable ones against the league's middle class, that bear out whether the Falcons are the best of what I think they can be (an 11-victory division winner) or somewhere vying for second place."
