IN THE THROES OF ALL-22 TAPE — Third down. It's been a thorn in the Falcons' side through their first three games of the regular season.
In each of those three contests, the Falcons have found themselves 2-of-9 on third down, which totals out to 8-of-27 over 12 quarters of work. As Kirk Cousins said after the Falcons' most recent loss to the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday night, that clip is not good enough. And as head coach Raheem Morris talked about Monday afternoon, it's been a key reason why the Falcons offense has failed to string drives together.
"We gotta do a better job of getting third downs on offense and we gotta do a better job stopping them and getting off the grass on defense," Morris said. "... That's the whole thing. That's like life. That's time of possession. That's scoring points. It's being a difference-maker in a half-a-yard game. That's huge."
For the Falcons offense to get where it wants to go in 2024, its third-down conversion rate has to get to a healthier level.
"It will allow you to keep the ball a little bit longer, so you can play a little bit of the soccer game we are capable of playing, particularly if we get our run game going," Morris said. "... You really can dictate terms on how you want to play football."
To follow up, Morris was asked about looking at the 27 third-down plays the Falcons have accumulated through three games to see if there are any major trends or themes that pop up. Of course, Morris responded, you're always self-scouting, and you're always looking for patterns in protection, route concepts, decision-making, etc.
Funny enough, as Morris was saying this, I was already well through third-down play No. 20 by this point in the day.
That's right. My entire day has been devoted to the 27 third-down plays the Falcons have ran this year. I have watched at least two angles of every single one of those plays as I looked into answering the question of, "What the heck is happening on third down?" (which, yes, was a note in my notebook Sunday night).
Broken down by game and then by key themes, here is a comprehensive look at the Falcons' offensive appearances in third-down situations.
Week 1 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
2-of-9 on third down
Third-and-short (≤3 yards): 0-for-2
Third-and-medium (equal to 4-6 yards): 2-for-2
Third-and-long (≥7 yards): 0-for-5
Sacks given up on third down: One on third-and-short at the end of the game
The problems facing the Falcons on third down in their Week 1 matchup was simple: They were in too many third-and-long situations.
These type of moments are already fundamentally more difficult with the offense in an obvious passing situation, allowing a defensive front to pin their ears back and rush the passer without fear of getting burned on the ground.
A lot of the Falcons' biggest third-down moments came in the second half of this loss, when they were working from behind. The unit did not convert a single third down in the second half, with three of the five third-and-long situations happening during this stretch, too. In those three plays, specifically, Kirk Cousins did have open receivers. On third-and-17 with four minutes to go in the third quarter, Cousins connected with Charlie Woerner who leaked out behind Kyle Pitts and Drake London after a chip block to the right. It was a pass that only picked up four yards, while Bijan Robinson ran his route to the flat on the opposite side and had about 10 yards between him and the next closest defender.
On the third-and-long plays that followed to start the fourth quarter, Cousins could have had open receivers if he would have — or could have — held onto the ball a little bit longer to let the routes develop. On third-and-15 at the 14:36 mark he threw to Ray-Ray McCloud in double coverage, but would have had London right at the line to gain. Then, on third-and-11 at the 6:09 mark, Cousins connected with Pitts for an eight-yard gain (not enough for the first down, obviously), but had London and McCloud over top. It was obvious, though, that Pitts was the first read because Cousins stared him down the whole way.
When looking back on these moments, it definitely felt like Cousins was a bit uncomfortable in the pocket, experiencing live action for the first time since Week 8 of the 2023 season. This tracks with what Cousins said after the game about his own performance.
Week 2 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
2-of-9 on third down
Third-and-short (≤3 yards): N/A
Third-and-medium (equal to 4-6 yards): 2-for-6
Third-and-long (≥7 yards): 0-for-3
Sacks given up on third down: One sack on third-and-4 at the start of the third quarter
From Week 1 to Week 2 the Falcons did cut down on getting themselves out of third-and-long situations and into more manageable moments with third-and-medium. However, their overall clip still didn't improve. What's interesting about these specific packages of third-down looks is that the Falcons actually were moving the ball. Cousins was 4-for-7 on third down in this game. The problem, however, lies in the Falcons not being able to get enough yardage to convert.
In the second half particularly (in which the Falcons only converted one of their four third-down chances), there were two moments that fit the above criteria. One came on third-and-12 at the 2:43 mark in the third quarter. Cousins hit Pitts for an eight-yard gain. They needed 12, though. On their next third down, a third-and-9 situation with 6:12 to go in the game, Cousins hit London for an eight-yard gain. He needed nine, though.
When the Falcons did convert on third down in this game, it resulted in points scored. After Cousins' hit McCloud for a 12-yard gain on third-and-6 with four minutes to go in the half, the drive ended with a 22-yard field goal from Younghoe Koo. When Cousins hit London on third-and-5 from the Philadelphia 17-yard line, it produced a touchdown that solidified Atlanta's win.
Week 3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
2-of-9 on third down
Third-and-short (≤3 yards): 1-for-4
Third-and-medium (equal to 4-6 yards): 0-for-1
Third-and-long (≥7 yards): 1-for-4
Sacks given up on third down: One on third-and-2 in the third quarter
The third-down situations this game presented were significantly different from the others because of how many third-and-short situations the Falcons found themselves in. Statistically speaking, if you're in a third-down situation, you want it to be third-and-short because of the overall success rate on those plays. Against the Chiefs, though, conversions on short yardage plays were difficult to come by because of how limited the Falcons' run game was Sunday night.
Despite a third-and-3 call which saw Cousins connect with an uncovered London for a touchdown on the Falcons' very first drive of the game, the Falcons next three short-yardage situations on third down yielded no gain as Robinson's pick up of a yard at the 6:30 mark in the fourth quarter was offset by a sack of Cousins with eight minutes to go in the third. Then, of course, there was the final third down of the game: a run by Tyler Allgeier that saw his lane get clogged up. He couldn't get the necessary yard to get the Falcons the first down at the Kansas City 13-yard line. A handoff to Robinson on fourth down resulted in a loss of three and a loss of the game.
Major themes and trends
Like anything in this game, there isn't a one-size-fits-all approach to fixing the Falcons' third down issues. Regardless of formation, play call, intended target, motion, etc., the results on third down have not been consistent. There are some interesting takeaways, though, when looking at the breakdown of the plays and the outcomes themselves.
- The Falcons have only converted one singular third-and-short play. The only one, however, did not come off a designed run like you would expect. It came off the secondary breakdown on third-and-3 in the Falcons' opening drive against the Chiefs that resulted in a Falcons' touchdown to London. What's a bit disconcerting is that Cousins has been sacked on two different third-and-short calls (in the Falcons defense, though, the sack that came in this situation against the Steelers happened at the end of the game when the Falcons were in their two-minute offense). The Falcons have tried to throw out of a third-and-short situation three times. They have had designed runs on three calls, none of which yielded a conversion.
- When the Falcons do hit a third-down conversion, it's been big. Both of London's touchdowns have come on third-down plays, the one listed above and the game-winner on a third-and-5 play at the end of the Falcons' two-minute drill in Philadelphia. Of the Falcons' six third-down conversions, they have accumulated a total of 80 yards. They have had an explosive play (so, 10 yards or more) on five of the six.
- Third-and-4 has been an issue despite it being a more manageable yardage situation. The Falcons have faced third-and-4 five times and only converted once. Four of the five came against the Eagles and all four plays had different causes for why they didn't work. In the first quarter, Robinson dropped Cousins' pass before the next third down saw Cousins almost throw an interception when targeting London. Cousins threw the ball away on third-and-4 from the Philadelphia 4-yard line with 14 seconds to go in the first half. He probably would have had Pitts open if he held onto the ball a fraction of a second longer. Then, there was the sack given up at the 10:53 mark where Chris Lindstrom just got beat.
- The second half has not yielded hardly any conversions for the Falcons on third down. In fact, through three games, the unit has yet to convert a third down in the third quarter. Of the 27 total third downs the team has faced in 2024, 15 have come in the second half of games. Only two of those 15 have yielded first-down conversions.
