Inside Tori's Notebook is a weekly series where Tori McElhaney re-opens her game notebook to look back at her notes, questions and observations from the Falcons most recent game. Tori breaks down her thoughts and gives her analysis on what happened and why it's notable.
COMING TO TERMS -- In case you missed the news: I have a new notebook. I bought it last week. It's cute and has hundreds of new pages in it. For the purpose of this specific installment of "Inside Tori's Notebook," though, I didn't want to highlight anything I wrote in the new notebook from Sunday's 29-25 loss to Tampa Bay.
Truth be told, I didn't really care to go back and break down that game again. I didn't feel the need to revisit it via my own notes, either. I just didn't think I needed to. I didn't think there was anything else to learn from it.
What I found myself doing instead was looking through my shelves for my training camp notebook. It's not as cute as my new one but there was a specific page in that old notebook I needed.
In the early days of training camp, I had to make my record predictions for the season ahead for a story we were working on.
I'll be honest: I greatly despise preseason record predictions. I see no need in trying to predict wins and losses in a league that sees teams at the bottom of the league beat teams at the top every other week. But I know fans and readers love them. So, I did one, and I tried really hard to back it up with facts more than feelings as best I could.
That's why there's a page in my old notebook with a full breakdown of the Falcons 2023 schedule and where I saw wins (and losses) coming from.
In August, I saw the Falcons putting together a season of double-digit wins. I had Atlanta as NFC South champions. I had the Falcons in the playoffs. What they did from there was anyone's guess, but I saw them there.
That's not where I see them now. Perhaps this only strengthens my argument that preseason predictions are not worth the salt used to season them. But here's the thing: I didn't think giving the Falcons 10-plus wins then was a prediction with a lot of spice.
The Falcons had the easiest strength of schedule in 2023 of any team in the NFL. The NFC South was a mess at that time. Let's be honest, it still is as three teams are tied for a first-place standing with a 6-7 record. I could see runs of wins in that schedule.
Going back through my notes, here are the wins I saw: Carolina (twice), Green Bay, Texans, Commanders, Cardinals, Titans, Colts, Bears, split with the Saints and a split with the Bucs.
I had the Falcons losing to the Lions, Jaguars, Vikings (they still had a healthy Kirk Cousins at the time), Jets (they still had Aaron Rodgers at the time) and one loss a piece to the Saints and Bucs. So, a fair 11-6 record. After two consecutive seasons at 7-10, you'd take 11-6. Heck, you'd expect it with the way this team was constructed. I did, too, even though I am a firm hater in expectations re: end-of-season records.
With four games left in the season, the Falcons can't get to 11 wins. They can get to 10, but even that sounds like an uphill battle after barely beating the Jets two weeks ago and losing to the Bucs this Sunday. They'd have to win-out. Meanwhile, where the NFC South crown goes to when the season ends is anyone's idea. Probably safe to say it's not going to Carolina, but I digress...
This most recent loss has me coming to terms with the fact the Falcons are not where I thought they would be at this point in the season. Sure, they still have a playoff shot in front of them. However, if they lose to either the Panthers (this coming Sunday) or the Saints (to end the regular season), I think that shot is shattered. At this point in the season, the Falcons could have been in the position to further cement their playoff chances. Instead, they're left rolling in the muck of "missed opportunities."
The Falcons can still get there. Hope is not completely lost and crazier things have happened. They can still fight their way out of the quagmire, but it won't be easy. And even if they do, the NFC South is the butt of a lot of jokes compared to other divisions across the league.
At this point in the season, I expected the Falcons to be a team that's position in the postseason was respected at least for the fact they had the wins to back it up, even if the division wins didn't carry a heavy weight.
I'm coming to terms with the fact that's not the case for Atlanta in 2023.
Get an inside look at the matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during Week 14.
Atlanta Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell #24 prior to the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier #25 and fullback Keith Smith #40 walk out prior to the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons cornerback Dee Alford #20 walks out prior to the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder #9 prior to the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons punter Bradley Pinion #13 watches the halo board before the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons defensive lineman Calais Campbell #93 leads the huddle during warmups before the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
The 1998 Team on the sideline before the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Field goal unit warms up prior to the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
A detail before the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London #5 walks out prior to the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder #9 walks out prior to the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Scotty Miller #16 walks out before the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons punter Bradley Pinion #13 during the National Anthem before the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons offensive lineman Matthew Bergeron #65 walks out before the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder #9 walks out before the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Players run out prior to the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier #25 prior to the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
The Coin Toss before the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Captains walk to midfield for the coin toss prior to the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons safety Jessie Bates III #3 and Atlanta Falcons defensive back Clark Phillips III #34 make a tackle during the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons outside linebacker Arnold Ebiketie #17 makes a tackle during the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons safety Richie Grant #27 reacts after a stop during the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons cornerback Tre Flowers #33 reacts after a play during the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson #7 carries the ball during the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London #5 carries the ball during the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons defensive lineman Calais Campbell #93 during the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson #7 rushes during the second quarter of the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts #8 celebrates with teammates after a touchdown during the second quarter of the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts #8 runs for a touchdown after a catch during the second quarter of the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Kevin Liles/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts #8 celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts #8 celebrates with teammates after a touchdown during the second quarter of the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo #6 celebrates after an extra point during the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons linebacker Kaden Elliss #55 reacts after a tackle during the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons safety Jessie Bates III #3 reacts after a tackle during the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell #24 reacts after a tackle during the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons cornerback Mike Hughes #21 makes a tackle during the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo #6 celebrates with teammates after kicking a field goal during the first half of the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Kevin Liles/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell #24 reacts during the first half of the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Kevin Liles/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons defensive lineman Kentavius Street #75 and linebacker Kaden Elliss #55 react during the first half of the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons linebacker Kaden Elliss #55 and Atlanta Falcons defensive lineman Kentavius Street #75 celebrate during the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Kathryn Skeean/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder #9 sets up for a play during the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Kathryn Skeean/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver KhaDarel Hodge #12 runs after a catch during the first half of the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Kevin Liles/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons cornerback Tre Flowers #33 lines up during the third quarter of the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Mack Hollins #18 fights a double team during the third quarter of the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
General view during the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons linebacker Kaden Elliss #55 makes a tackle during the third quarter of the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons defensive back Clark Phillips III #34 reacts during the third quarter of the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons outside linebacker Bud Dupree #48 defends during the third quarter of the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons defensive lineman Travis Bell #74 during the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson #7 scores a touchdown during the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson #7 celebrates with teammates after a touchdown during the second half of the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Chamberlain Smith/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson #7 celebrates after a touchdown during the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson #7 reacts after a first down during the second half of the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson #7 celebrates with teammates after a touchdown during the second half of the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson #7 celebrates with teammates after a touchdown during the second half of the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London #5 catches a pass during the fourth quarter of the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London #5 catches a long pass during the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder #9 rushes for a touchdown during the fourth quarter of the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder #9 rushes for a touchdown during the fourth quarter of the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder #9 celebrates after rushing for a touchdown during the fourth quarter of the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London #5 reacts after a two point conversion during the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London #5 reacts after a two point conversion during the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder #9 after the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder #9 after the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons safety Jessie Bates III #3 after the Week 14 Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, December 10, 2023. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
