FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. -- Atlanta enters the final six weeks of the season with everything to play for.
After a crucial win against New Orleans moved the Falcons to 3-0 in the NFC South and 5-6 overall the team controls its own destiny as the calendar turns to December. There are few better positions to be in this time of year.
This week, we'll look at a few stats and notes that will play a key role in determining the Falcons future entering the stretch run.
Ridder in the clutch
Close games have been the story of the season for Atlanta this season as seven of the Falcons games have been decided by eight or fewer points. The Falcons are 3-1 in such games with Desmond Ridder as the team's starting quarterback and in a fourth (the 25-23 loss to Arizona) Ridder came on in relief of Taylor Heinicke and led a fourth-quarter touchdown drive. His calm, neutral-minded approach has helped him excel in critical situations. That's been particularly evident in the fourth quarter.
Here's a quick breakdown of those fourth-quarter stats:
| Stat | Ridder | NFL Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Success Rate | 57.6% | 1 |
| Yards per Attempt | 9.8 | 1 |
| EPA per Dropback | 0.15 | 2 |
| Total EPA | 12.9 | 2 |
| Completion Pct. | 69.2% | 3 |
Ridder has completed 54-of-78 passes for 764 yards with a 102.7 passer rating in the fourth quarter this season. He has been the best passer in the NFL in terms of success rate (57.6%) and yards per attempt (9.8) in the fourth quarter this season. Additionally, Ridder ranks second in expected points added per dropback (0.15) and total EPA (12.9), while ranking third in completion percentage (69.2%) and fourth in Next Gen Stats' completion percentage over expectation (5.9%). Ridder has also been pressured at the lowest rate in the NFL (29.4%) during the fourth quarter.
These aren't garbage-time stats playing against a team that has called off the dogs either. Ridder leads the league with 20% of his fourth-quarter dropbacks coming when the team's winning percentage is between 50-75%, so these plays are coming in meaningful moments late in games.
With six games left and everything to play for, Atlanta will need Ridder to be a steady presence in the fourth quarter.
Red-zone defense
Atlanta kept New Orleans out of the end zone on five red-zone trips in Week 12, becoming the third team to hold an opponent without a touchdown on five or more trips to the red zone in a game this season.
By forcing two turnovers and making the Saints settle for three field goals on trips inside the 20, Atlanta's opponents have only scored on 38.2% of red-zone trips in 2023, the third-lowest mark in the NFL. Additionally, in goal-to-go situations this year, opponents have reached the end zone only 53.3% of the time against Atlanta's defense, tied with Baltimore and Tennessee for the second-fewest in the league.
Atlanta's red-zone defense was bolstered by Jessie Bates III in its Week 12 win over New Orleans. Bates became the first player this season to have an interception and a forced fumble resulting in a turnover in the red zone in the same game. According to Tru Media, Bates is the first player to accomplish this feat since Bobby Wagner in 2018.
Bates was named NFC Defensive Player of the Week for his performance, deservedly so.
Big play offense
Since Week 5, the Falcons have been one of the league's most productive offenses in terms of explosive plays.
Atlanta ranks seventh in the league with 103 plays of 10-plus yards over that span. Accounting for the bye week, the Falcons rank third averaging 14.7 such plays per game during that stretch. Atlanta's 33 rushes of 10 or more yards are the second most in the NFL since Week 5. Atlanta has totaled 151 plays of 10-plus yards this season including 48 rushes, which ranks third in the league.
Here's a look at the big play leaders through Week 5:
| Team | 10+ Yard Plays | 10+ Plays per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Houston | 112 | 16 |
| Dallas | 109 | 15.6 |
| Atlanta | 103 | 14.7 |
| Washington | 116 | 14.5 |
| Buffalo | 113 | 14.1 |
Speaking literally and figuratively, one of the biggest plays of the season came in Atlanta's Week 12 win over the New Orleans Saints.
Following a forced fumble by Bates, the Falcons took possession at their 5-yard line to open the fourth quarter. Nine plays later, Ridder connected with Bijan Robinson for a 26-yard touchdown. Atlanta would add an insurance field goal later but the Ridder to Robinson touchdown would give Atlanta its winning margin.
Before the snap, the Falcons had a win probability of 77.8%. Following the play that would jump to 83.7%. The play also resulted in 2.62 expected points added. There is no doubt it was an impactful play for Atlanta but as it turns out, it was one of the rarest plays and drives in the NFL this season.
According to Next Gen Stats, Ridder's 26-yard connection with Robinson was the second deep touchdown reception by a running back this season. This means the ball traveled at least 20 air yards from the line of scrimmage. The only other such touchdown this season was Saquon Barkley's 24-yard score against Washington in Week 11.
To take the rarity a step further, there have been just eight touchdowns scored on drives starting at or inside a team's 5-yard line this season. Teams have combined for 108 such drives this season with just 7% resulting in touchdowns.
200 yards and running
Atlanta makes no secret of its identity as a physical running team. The Falcons showed that Sunday by rushing for 228 yards on 41 carries and averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Atlanta's trio of running backs - or more accurately two running backs and a joker – each averaged more than five yards per carry while Ridder averaged a healthy 4.3 yards on seven carries.
Sunday marked the sixth time under Arthur Smith that Atlanta has rushed for more than 200 yards and the second time this season. It was also the third straight game against New Orleans that the Falcons have doubled the century mark.
In arguably their best rushing performance of the season, the Falcons posted a 46.3% success rate on runs and 0.14 EPA per carry. According to Next Gen Stats, the Falcons had the second highest total rush EPA (5.9) of the week and their 15 rushing first downs were the most by any team in Week 12.
The team will look to its foundational running game now that we've entered the final month of the season. There is an old adage that a strong running game travels and the Falcons will need to bring theirs to New York in Week 13.
Chasing 1,000
Bijan Robinson has eclipsed 100 scrimmage yards in each of his past two games and now leads all rookies with 943 yards from scrimmage this season.
Appearing in his 12th game on Sunday, Robinson needs 67 scrimmage yards to tie William Andrews (12 games in 1979) as the fastest player to reach 1,000 yards from scrimmage in franchise history.
View photos of Falcons players customized that showcase and bring awareness to causes that mean the most to them through the NFL's My Cause My Cleats campaign. Click here to learn more about the causes.
Desmond Ridder's cleats are dedicated to the Mal Mal's Pals cause in the name of Ridder's cousin Mallory who has Down Syndrome. The organization works with Down Syndrome of Louisville to support and raise awareness around the condition.
Desmond Ridder | Mal Mal's Pals
Andre Smith Jr's cleats represent the Black Women's Health Imperative. The organization is the only national non-profit solely focused on health equity for Black women in the U.S.
Andre Smith Jr. | Black Women's Health Imperative
Barry Wesley chose the Covenant House of Georgia for his cleats. The organization opens doors to youth experiencing homelessness and escaping trafficking providing them with stability.
Barry Wesley | Covenant House of Georgia
The Bijan Robinson Foundation is Robinson's cause for his cleats. The foundations helps bridge the gap in opportunities to help kids succeed on and off the field.
Bijan Robinson | The Bijan Robinson Foundation
Bradley Pinion selected Compassion International for his cleats. Pinion has worked with the organization all season in his Punts for Purpose initiative that helps aid mothers and babies survive their first year of life in low-income countries.
Bradley Pinion | Compassion International
Calais Campbell's cleats are dedicated to The Elephant in the Room. Campbell is passionate about destigmatizing mental health and addressing needs in the Black and brown community. The organization promotes education and open dialogue surrounding mental health.
Calais Campbell | Elephant in the Room
Carlos Washington chose the American Society for Deaf Children for his cleats. Washington is the grandchild of deaf grandparents and is now an advocate for the community. The cause is committed to helping deaf and hard of hearing children with access in inclusive environments through mentoring, advocacy, resources, and collaborative networks.
Carlos Washington | American Society for Deaf Children
Chris Lindstrom's cleats represent Best Buddies. The organization is committed to halting the physical, social and economic isolation of those with intellectual and developmental disabilities. Lindstrom has close ties to the cause as his sister is a member.
Chris Lindstrom | Best Buddies
Drake London's cause is the Special Olympics. It's a priority of London to create equal opportunities, especially in sports, for disabled people. The organization aims to provide sports training and competition to children and adults with intellectual disabilities.
Drake London | Special Olympics
Frank Darby selected Autism Speaks for his cleats. Darby has a personal connection to the cause in which the organization helps create an inclusive world for autistic individuals through advocacy, services, research and advances in care.
Frank Darby | Autism Speaks
Grady Jarrett's non-profit Grady Gives is the chosen cause for his cleats. His organization promotes anti-bullying, literacy awareness and empowering the youth.
Grady Jarrett | Grady Gives
Jeff Okudah dedicated his cleats to the The Leukemia & Lymphoma Society. Okudah has a special tie to the cause after his mother died of lymphoma. The non-profit organization is a leading researcher, policy advocate while providing patient support.
Jeff Okudah | The Leukemia & Lymphoma Society
Joe Gaziano's cleats represent the The Jimmy Fund. Through community-based fundraising the organization helps support the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, an adult and pediatric cancer treatment center. Gaziano holds a personal connections as his sister who passed away from childhood cancer.
Joe Gaziano | The Jimmy Fund
Kaleb McGary chose The Strong Side Foundation for his cleats. McGary created the foundation to help aid organizations that support veterans and civilians who suffer from challenges caused by traumatic military experiences.
Kaleb McGary | The Strong Side
Keith Smith's cleats represent his foundation the Smith Effect Foundation. The organization focuses on improving child literacy and help uplift communities through education and creating generational wealth.
Keith Smith | The Smith Effect Foundation
Kyle Hinton selected AdoptAClassroom.org for his cause. Hinton comes from a family of educators, so it was important for his cleats to represent an organization that provides teachers with optimal supplies for the many schools in need of basic materials necessary for learning.
Kyle Hinton | AdoptAClassroom.org
Kyle Pitts dedicated his cleats to the Boys & Girls Club of America. The organization aims to provide safer environments for children through mentorship, life-enhancing programs and a place to grow and thrive.
Kyle Pitts | Boys & Girls Club of America
Logan Woodside chose the Skin Cancer Foundation for his cause. The foundation spreads awareness about skin cancer prevention and detection while providing funding for research and treatments.
Logan Woodside | Skin Cancer Foundation
Lorenzo Carter's cause United Way is a local Atlanta organization aiding children in areas of need to help with equitable access to health care, education, housing and healthy food. Carter is a Georgia native and aims to help give back to his community.
Lorenzo Carter | United Way
Mack Hollins' cleats is dedicated to the Thumbs Up Mission. The cause focuses on uplifting families who have a child or parent battling cancer through an all-expense paid trip.
Mack Hollins | Thumbs Up Mission
Matthew Bergeron | Football Québec
Matthew Bergeron | Football Québec
Micah Abernathy dedicated his cleats to the Ralph David Abernathy III Foundation. The Foundation runs the historic West Hunter Street Baptist Church. Under the leadership of Abernathy's grandfather the church was a strategic and emotional headquarters for the Civil Rights Movement.
Nate Landman's cleats represent Responder Rescue. Landman is passionate in the mission because of family connections. The organization provides support both emotionally and monetarily to first responders who have been injured or suffered a traumatic experience on the job.
Nate Landman | Responder Rescue
Natrone Brooks chose the Breast Cancer Research Foundation for his cleats. The foundation researches the disease from every angle and helps promote awareness of detection. Brooks' mom beat breast cancer and wants to represent the pink ribbon that helped her fight.
Scotty Miller's cause Cerebral Palsy Foundation raises awareness for developmental disability. The foundation is leading research in preventing Cerebral Palsy and improving the quality of life of those impacted. Miller has a special connection to the cause as his cousin has the condition which affects their everyday basic functions.
Scotty Miller | Cerebral Palsy Foundation
Storm Norton's cleats represent the Alzheimer's Association. The foundation is a leading researcher in hopes of finding an end to Alzheimers and dementia globally.
Storm Norton | Alzheimer's Association
Taylor Heinicke selected The Mighty Millie Foundation for his cleats. In the name of Millie, a family friend of Heinicke's that died of cancer, the foundation brings awareness to the lack of research on rare forms of childhood cancer and provides a little treat bringing popsicles to children's hospitals.
Taylor Heinicke | The Might Millie Foundation
Tre Flowers dedicated his cleats to The Giving Flowers Foundation. The organization helps fund smaller local charities. They've raised over one million dollars for charities focused on a plethora of issues from education to mental health to gun violence.
Tyler Allgeier's cause The White Ribbon Project promotes awareness around lung cancer. Allgeier lost his grandfather to lung cancer is committed to raising awareness for research.
Tyler Allgeier | The White Ribbon Project
Bud Dupree selected First 48 Charity to for his cleat's cause. The organization helps ensure families in rural middle Georgia have access to resources and have the opportunity to expand main priorities like transportation. Dupree is from rural Georgia and is dedicated to giving back to his community.
Bud Dupree | First 48 Charity
Jonnu Smith chose The Nu Family Foundation for his cleats. The organization founded by Smith empowers at-risk youth and families through mentorship and education.
Jonnu Smith | The Nu Family Foundation
Timmy Horne dedicated his cleats to Play Like a Girl. The organization helps inspire girls to play sports and help them develop skills like confidence in order to bridge the gender gap in sports and STEM. Horne was inspired by the rise of women sports like flag football and wanted to contribute to supporting the cause.
Timmy Horne | Play Like a Girl
