Nerdy Birds: Kyle Pitts, Drake London on the rise

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — Atlanta enters Week 8 with an opportunity to position itself for a strong stretch run. Defeating Tampa Bay this Sunday would give the Falcons a winning record through Week 8 for the first time since 2017. That would bode well as Atlanta has reached the playoffs six of the eight times the team has had a winning record through the first eight weeks of a season since 2010.

The Falcons' ability to string together a three-game winning streak during a critical early-season divisional stretch has put the team in this position.

After facing NFC West foe Seattle in Week 7, the Falcons once again have a critical stretch ahead, kicking off by this week's trip to Tampa Bay. Atlanta owes some of its success — and will no doubt pin a significant portion of its hope — on its ability to build on the offensive improvement witnessed over the past three games. As quarterback Kirk Cousins has come into form, so, too, have the team's heralded skill-position players.

One of those players is tight end Kyle Pitts, whose reemergence is one fans, coaches and teammates have been eagerly awaiting.

Since becoming the second rookie tight end in NFL history to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards, injury and inconsistency have stunted his momentum. He missed the final seven games of his second season after suffering a knee injury and struggled to regain his form in 2023. Fans would be forgiven for thinking more of the same was on tap for 2024 when he didn't burst out of the gates early this season.

Over the first four weeks of the season, Pitts caught eight of his 15 targets for 105 yards. He caught 53.3% of passes thrown his way and generated 1.1 yards per route run and minus-0.27 expected points added per play. His quiet start was punctuated by a zero-catch, three-target game against New Orleans in Week 4. It was the first time in his career that Pitts was held without a catch and one of just three games in which he did not have multiple catches.

That changed in Atlanta's Week 5 win against Tampa Bay. Pitts was targeted eight times, catching seven passes for 88 yards and generating 0.58 expected points added per target, according to Next Gen Stats. The eight targets he saw were his most in a single game since Week 13 of 2023, and his 88 yards marked the fourth-highest single-game total of his career. That uptick in performance has become a trend, as according to Next Gen Stats, Pitts has 17 catches on 22 targets, good for a 77.3 reception percentage since Week 5. He has posted 223 receiving yards, 2.1 yards per route run and 0.18 EPA per play over that span.

It's unlikely the Falcons made one specific change that has led to Pitts' altered trajectory. The more plausible cause is Pitts growing confidence in his role in the Falcons new offense. Surely, offensive coordinator Zac Robinson and Cousins have a better feel for what the 6-foot-6, 250-pound tight end can do, which has helped as well.

"The last couple years, he's told me of not being in 11 personnel as often, so there's a little bit of learning curve for him," Cousins said. "What does it look like when you're the only tight end on the field? How do you fit in the concepts and what's your role? He's done a nice job kind of finding that fit and showing up for us in that role, which is probably a little bit different."

The uptick in 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers) has certainly been different for Pitts.

In 2023, the Falcons used 11 personnel on 16.8% of their offensive snaps, which was the lowest rate in the NFL. Atlanta used 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends and two receivers) on 41.2% of plays, the highest percentage in the league. Over his first three seasons, the Falcons played the second-lowest percentage of 11 personnel in the NFL behind Baltimore.

Robinson has flipped that script in 2024, with Atlanta playing the highest rate of 11 personnel at 89.9%. That is likely due to the strength of the Falcons skill group, with returning players like Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson, as well as the additions of Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud. Cousins alluded to this when addressing the media on Pitts' recent performance.

"What you want is to be difficult to defend because you feel like when you break the huddle with five eligibles, the defense looks at all five and says pick your poison," Cousins said. "You want defenses to play things honest, because they need to play things honestly, and if they don't, that's where you feel like you then have the advantage."

Pitts' growing comfort with his role and Atlanta's new style of play have proven to be a boon for the former fourth-overall pick.

Since Week 5, his target share has risen from 15.3% to 20.6%. After posting negative numbers for catch-over-expectation percentage (-5.2%), EPA (-4.0) and yards after the catch-over expectation (-1), Pitts has taken all those metrics into the positive with +3.3% CROE, +4.0 EPA and 10 YACOE. Pitts has made particular improvements in both what he does before the ball is thrown and after the catch is made, which is likely a result of the work Pitts and Cousins put in together during the offseason.

"I challenge him," Cousins told reporters during training camp. "If don't feel like he's running as fast as he possibly can. I say, 'That wasn't good enough. It was fast enough for a lot of tight ends, but for you it's got to be faster.' I always say, 'Did you run as fast as you possibly can? And did you snag it with your hands, aggressively?' Those are the two things I challenge him on because I said if you do that the production can't help but happen."

Pitts clearly took those challenges to heart.

According to Next Gen Stats, he ranks second among tight ends in yards after the catch (111) and yards after contact (50). His average separation at the time a pass arrives is 3.5 yards, the highest mark of his career. Over the last three weeks, that number has jumped to 4.5, which ranks sixth among tight ends with at least 10 targets, but Pitts has been targeted more than all but one of the other tight ends in the top 10 in that metric.

Next Gen Stats has recently developed a new measurement that helps illustrate Pitts' upward trajectory this season, Next Gen Prime Targets.

This proprietary stat calculates routes and targets where a receiver has created separation and is likely to gain a first down, according to Next Gen Stats' model. Although Next Gen Stats tracks these across all games, the stat was specifically developed for Amazon's Thursday Night Football broadcast. Players with a Prime route can be seen on screen with a green circle when watching the Prime Vision broadcast. This is like the defensive alert feature Amazon added last season, which highlights potential blitzers with red circles.

In the case of Prime Targets, the numbers can be tracked across seasons.

One of the interesting things about a player's Prime rate, or the percentage of routes on which he was open and expected to gain a first down, is that it provides a look at how successful a receiver is at getting open within the timing of the play.

Over the first four weeks of the season, Pitts registered a Prime rate of 8.2% with just eight Prime routes across 98 total routes run. Since Week 5, his Prime rate has jumped to 19.6%.

It's important to remember there are some mitigating factors to having a high Prime rate, like routes that are designed to be short of the sticks or instances where a tight end is asked to chip a defender before releasing into his route.

For example, 60 of Pitts' 107 routes over the last three weeks have been behind the line of scrimmage or short of the sticks. It's going to be more difficult for those types of routes to have an expected result of a first down, but Pitts has been very good on intermediate and deep routes, posting a Prime rate of 23.4% on 47 such routes.

Pitts has endured a rollercoaster start to his career. He opened with record-setting highs and was beset by a challenging injury that took time to overcome. Seven weeks into his season, Pitts' momentum is on the upswing, and he looks poised to recapture the form that made him such a prized prospect in the first place.

London on the rise

Before the season began, there were questions surrounding the type of threat the Falcons offense would be in 2024. Expectations were high, and still are seven weeks into the regular season. Though there have been some ups and downs in performances over the weeks, we've seen career games from several of Atlanta's key pieces this season.

One name in particular that many have claimed should have a breakout season this year is definitely on the verge: third-year wide receiver Drake London.

Entering Week 8, London has caught 44 passes, the fourth-most in the NFL, for 491 yards, and also the seventh-most and a career-best five touchdowns. He has scored a touchdown in each of the last three games, the longest streak by a Falcon since Hayden Hurst in 2020. He also holds the longest active streak in the NFL of at least 50 receiving yards and six catches in a game, having recorded the stat line in six-straight contests.

London entered this season wanting to be a leader and take on a bigger role in the offense, and he certainly has. Head coach Raheem Morris has said he's enjoyed watching him evolve into the top-tier receiver that he's striving to be. His leadership and seriousness about the game is evident both on and off the field.

"Watching him evolve into an inside-outside player has been a lot of fun for us to just go out and do the process," Morris said. "To even watch him within the installs right now and be able to contribute and be able to talk about what he did or his memorization of the game plans that we had before and what this is like has been fun."

London has gained the trust of Cousins almost instantly, too.

In critical downs and red-zone situations where Cousins needs a go-getter receiver to make catch to move the chains, London has been that guy. According to Tru Media, he's been targeted the most on the team on second (27), third (15) and fourth (four) down and in the red zone (27). When targeted this season, he's generated a 107.7 passer rating for players with a minimum of 60 targets, the third-highest rate in the NFL.

Not only is he able to make catches on critical downs and in red-zone situations, but London also has the ability to make tight window catches, where the defender is less than one yard away from the receiver.

According to Next Gen Stats, he has a tight window percentage of 29% this season, the highest in the NFL for players with a minimum of 60 targets. He's been targeted on a league-most 18 tight window catches and has come down with nine of them, the most in the league, through the first seven weeks of the season.

Cousins has high hopes for the third-year receiver and believes in the type of pass catcher that he can be.

"I tell him that when I'm hard on him, if you will, or challenging him, I say, 'Understand that the only reason I challenge you or am hard on you is because I want to see you be All Pro; I want to see you go to the Pro Bowl," Cousins said. "I want to see you have a big-time year, so if I'm ever coming down on you, it's from a place of I want to see you have big-time success. And sometimes, it's going to take candor and some tough conversations to do that."

Part of London's development this season has been being more versatile, impacting both the run and the pass game. Much to everyone's surprise, he has been a threat in the run game, blocking to pave the way for the duo of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. His size, stature and physicalness is a benefit in allowing him to do so. He clearly is not afraid to throw himself into any situation to help this team the best way he can.

"Drake looks like a small forward man out there, so he's a big man," Morris said. "When he plays and he gets down in those positions, he's not afraid or shows any signs of timidness to go in there and get whoever he needs to get."

What's more, the versatility of London is evident.

This season, he has run 38.1% of his routes from the slot, an increase from both last season (28.2%) and his 2022 rookie season (22.3%). He has been particularly efficient at converting first downs from the slot on a per route basis, gaining a first down on 14.4% of his routes run from the slot since entering the league in 2022, the highest rate among receivers with at least 300 slot routes run during that span.

He's been targeted on 36 of his 91 routes from the slot in 2024, resulting in a 39.6% target rate, the highest of any receiver with such routes, according to Next Gen Stats.

Another division contest is on the horizon as Atlanta travels to Tampa Bay on Sunday for their second matchup of the season and within the last three weeks.

In his three seasons with the Falcons, London has produced career-days against the Buccaneers, specifically. He has totaled four 100-yard receiving games in his career, three of which have come against the Buccaneers, including his high of 172 yards in Week 14 of the 2023 season. London recorded the second-most receiving yards (154) in his career off a career-best 12 catches against the Bucs in the last matchup between the clubs on Thursday Night Football in Week 5, including career-highs in receptions (8) and receiving yards (117) when aligned in the slot (1 TD), according to Next Gen Stats.

For the third-year wide receiver, expectations are high, but his constant production in just seven games played in 2024 has shown that he is capable of being a top-of-the-charts impact player.