FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — There's not much sense in beating around the bush, Atlanta has its collective back against the wall heading into a Week 15 Monday Night Football matchup with the Las Vegas Raiders. The key to the game and to the Falcons' success down the stretch is simple: Finish drives with touchdowns, specifically in the red zone.
Atlanta has moved the ball well all season, but when they've gotten into the red zone those drives have ended with field goals rather than touchdowns too often. This season, the Falcons rank ninth in the NFL with a 45.6% success rate and 11th with a down-set conversion rate of 74%. During its four-game losing streak, Atlanta's success rate of 45.8% ranks sixth in the league and is a full percentage point higher than what the team managed over the first nine weeks of the season.
While their down-set conversion rate, or the rate at which a team turns a set of downs into a first down or a touchdown, fell slightly during the recent slide, the Falcons remain a top-15 team at sustaining drives.
Since Week 10, the Falcons have the lowest percentage of three-and-outs in the league (12.5%) and average more plays per drive (6.9) than any other team in the NFL. However, Atlanta ranks 29th in points per drive (1.43) and touchdown rate (12.5%). Despite the rash turnovers that plagued the team, the offense has been effective at moving the ball. The culprit responsible for the team's ultimate lack of results has been bogging down in the red zone.
While things tend to tighten up in the red zone due to the offense having less space to work with, a team that is one of the most efficient in the league when operating in the open field, or from its own 10 to the opponent's 25-yard line, wouldn't be expected to face this significant of a drop off.
According to Tru Media, Atlanta ranks 13th in EPA per play (+0.04) in the open field since Week 10. Over that same span, the Falcons rank 31st in EPA per play in the red zone (-0.44).
There has to be an explanation for that, because a four-game stretch is a trend. And Atlanta has to reverse that trend.
As it happens, there is a fairly clear explanation. Penalties. Even more than turnovers, penalties have stalled the Falcons' momentum and too often turned seven points into three. Or worse, zero. During the Falcons' four-game slide, they've committed seven red-zone penalties, the second most in the NFL during that span, according to Tru Media. Atlanta had five such penalties over the first nine games of the season. Three drives over the last four games illustrate the impact of these red-zone penalties.
Trailing, 17-7, early in the third quarter in New Orleans, Atlanta had a first and goal from the 9-yard line. A Bijan Robinson run got the Falcons to the Saints 1-yard line, but an illegal low block meant that Atlanta instead faced a first and goal from the 20. The next play was a false start, which pushed things back 5 yards further. The offense got back to the Saints 8-yard line but had to settle for a field goal. All this was after a holding call that pushed the Falcons from the New Orleans 24 to the 34. The Falcons lost 24 yards to penalties on that one drive after getting into the high red area. Settling for three there made it a 17-10 instead of 17-14 in a game Atlanta would ultimately lose by three points.
The following week, after Denver scored on its opening possession, Atlanta calmly and coolly drove into the red zone. Robinson carried the ball to the Broncos 10-yard line, but a holding call pushed the Falcons back to the 20 and a subsequent illegal motion penalty knocked them back to the 25. Atlanta went from second and 5 at the 10 to second and 20 from the 25. After a negative play, Atlanta faced a third and 21 and ultimately saw Younghoe Koo kick a 41-yard field goal. Another four-point swing.
Trailing 14-10 in the third quarter in Minnesota, Kirk Cousins hit Ray-Ray McCloud for a 27-yard gain to give the Falcons a first down at the Vikings 13-yard line. Robinson ran the ball down to the five, leaving Atlanta with what would have been a second and 2 with the potential for another first down before reaching the end zone. Instead, a holding penalty knocked Atlanta back to the 21-yard line. Despite getting back to the Minnesota 11, Atlanta again had to settle for a field goal.
Minnesota would score a touchdown on the following possession and despite the fact that the Falcons were able to tie the game at 21 late in the third quarter, they went from potentially leading 17-14 to playing catchup. That one penalty is not the reason the game snowballed, but it certainly changed the dynamics of the game.
It would be a lot of would of, could of, should of, to say if the Falcons scored touchdowns on these three drives the outcomes of those games would be different. Atlanta still would have needed to punch the ball in the end zone, but going backward certainly doesn't make that challenge any easier.
There is a silver lining to this that suggests if Atlanta can curtail the red-zone penalties, the offense does have the ability to score. Since Week 10, the Falcons have scored four touchdowns on red zone drives when they don't have a penalty. All four of those scores came on runs by Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. On the season, Atlanta's backfield duo has combined for 11 of the Falcons 20 red-zone touchdowns.
Red-zone success is a key to the Falcons success as they make their stretch run. Atlanta can get it done but the offense will need to play clean and execute to climb out of the hole the team finds itself in.
Looking at the Bright Side
Atlanta is trying to find its way to bounce back and out of a four-game losing streak, and though this stretch hasn't been the most productive for all three phases, there is a good number of positives that many have overlooked these past four weeks. Certain areas that Atlanta has wanted to improve on all season - for example, the pass rush - they have. Falcons Defensive Coordinator Jimmy Lake has said many times that it is a process, and if you trust the process, the results will come. It's evident that they are doing so, but they have to sustain it.
On the other side of the ball, many of Atlanta's playmakers are having career years. Ray-Ray McCloud III has set records in both receptions and receiving yards through 13 games played this season, Drake London has long passed his career-best receiving touchdown total and Bijan Robinson has totaled career highs in carries, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns and yards from scrimmage to name a few. And they're not done yet. Let's take a quick look at some standout moments from not only these past few weeks but the season as a whole.
Pass Rush Heating Up
Atlanta's defense is tied with Las Vegas for the most sacks in the NFL across Weeks 13-14 with nine, recording five in Week 13 against the Chargers and four in Week 14 at the Vikings. According to Next Gen Stats, Atlanta has recorded the highest sack percentage (14.3%) over that span. Third-year outside linebacker Arnold Ebiketie has been a huge part of this pass rush success, recording three sacks over that span, also the most he's had in consecutive games in his career. Ebiketie, Kaden Elliss and Grady Jarrett have each recorded three quarterback hits in that span.
No Better Duo
The Falcons' 250.2 passing yards per game currently ranks second in the league, the highest rank in franchise history through Weeks 1-14 of a season. A big testament to this is due to not only Kirk Cousins throwing for the third most passing yards (3,396) in the NFL entering Week 15, but also to the duo of Drake London and Darnell Mooney. Both London (866, 10th) and Mooney (873, 9th) rank top 10 in receiving yards, making Atlanta the only team in the NFL to have a receiving duo to be in the top 10 in such yards.
Robinson on the Run
Bijan Robinson is tied with Philadelphia's Saquon Barkley for the highest rush success rate in the league (min. 200 carries), finding success on 45.1% of his runs this season, according to Next Gen Stats. Robinson has also forced 67 missed tackles this season, the fourth most in the league behind Derrick Henry (75), Josh Jacobs (72) and Kyren Williams (70). He has totaled 302 yards after missed tackles, the sixth most in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats. With 23 rushing yards on Monday night, Robinson will reach 1,000 yards on the ground for the first time in his career.
Limiting the YAC
Atlanta's defense has allowed 4.8 yards after catch per reception, the third-lowest rate in the NFL. They are tied for the fourth fewest yards allowed after a reception (207) in the league and lead the league in occurrences of less than one yard after the catch allowed with 74 of such per Stats LLC. Despite giving up some big plays over the past few weeks, the Falcons defense is still tied for the fifth-fewest opponent big plays allowed with 41 entering Week 15.
Making Mooney Moves
Darnell Mooney totaled 101 yards off three receptions in the first half of Week 14 at Minnesota, the first time he has surpassed 100 yards in a half in his career. He led the team with a career-best 142 yards, his sixth game with at least 100 yards receiving and second on the season. According to TruMedia, Mooney has caught 19 receptions of at least 20 yards, including three at Minnesota, the second most explosive catches in the NFL behind Justin Jefferson who has 23.
The division title is on the mind and playoff hopes are on the line with four games left in regular season play. Atlanta certainly has the pieces and the determination to make it to the postseason, but they must turn it around on the primetime stage in Las Vegas on Monday night.
