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Nerdy Birds: Why A.J. Terrell is 'that guy'

Terrell is playing lockdown defense, while Drake London and Darnell Mooney are on the verge of history. 

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — "He's that guy."

Falcons defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake was succinct in his estimation of why cornerback A.J. Terrell has been targeted at one of the lower rates in the NFL.

"We're able to put him wherever we want, and we know that the quarterbacks better be aware if they're going to throw his way," Lake said. "He's been playing lock-down corner. That's the reason why you haven't heard his name very much."

Cornerback can be one of the more thankless positions in the NFL. Much like the offensive line, if you don't hear a player's name much they are probably playing fairly well. That is most definitely the case for cornerbacks, which offenses actively avoid. According to Next Gen Stats, Terrell has been targeted on just 12% of his coverage snaps this season, the third-lowest rate of any cornerback with at least 300 coverage snaps. Only Jaylon Johnson (10.1) and Patrick Surtain II (10.2) have been targeted less frequently through Week 16.

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Terrell's sticky coverage has been a major factor in his success this season. Despite playing zone coverage on 78.1% of his snaps, the fifth-year pro has an average separation of just 2.4 yards (the distance between the targeted receiver and the nearest defender when a pass arrives), which is tied for the ninth-lowest mark in the NFL. According to Next Gen Stats, Terrell has forced a tight window throw on 27.6% of his targets, meaning the target receiver has less than 1 yard of separation when the pass arrives. Even when he allows a completion, he's likely right there to make a play on the ball or make the tackle.

He's also forcing opposing quarterbacks to make high degree of difficulty throws. Per Next Gen Stats, receivers have been classified as open or having at least three yards of separation when the pass arrives on 20.7% of targets, the fourth-lowest percentage in the NFL.

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The Clemson product allows a reception on 65.5% of his targets, some of that is likely due to the high rate of zone the Falcons play. Despite the relatively high completion percentage, Terrell has a coverage success rate of 51.7% and is tied for fifth in the league in yards allowed per snap (0.9).

A willingness to tackle is also one of Terrell's strengths. On the 38 receptions Terrell has allowed by Next Gen Stats charting, he has surrendered just 82 yards after the catch, one of the lowest totals among qualifying cornerbacks. Combine his sticky coverage and willingness to tackle and you get 2.2 yards after the catch per reception allowed, which is the fourth-lowest mark in the league.

While the Falcons play a high right of zone, Terrell is more than capable of playing man, as Lake told the media this week.

"If there's a player that we deem as, 'Hey, we need to make sure the offense has to go through someone else,' then definitely that's going to be in the game plan," Lake said. "We've had a fair amount of times where A.J. has tracked and latched on to the No. 1 wideout... We're able to do that with A.J. Again, we're thankful that we have a big-time player like him that we can do that with."

According to Next Gen Stats, Terrell has been targeted just 15 times in 106 snaps of man coverage. He has forced a tight-window throw on 53.3% of those plays, the fifth-highest mark of any cornerback with at least 75 man-coverage snaps. He has not allowed a single open target, averages just 1.3 yards of separation and has surrendered 7 yards after the catch when in man coverage.

Terrell has enjoyed a solid season overall and that rings particularly true since the Falcons' Week 12 bye. Much like the rest of the defense, Terrell's play has spiked over the last four games, akin to that of his All-Pro season in 2021. Since Week 13, Terrell has allowed a total of five receptions for 46 yards on 10 targets with a 62.9 passer rating.

Among cornerbacks with at least 75 coverage snaps over that span, Terrell has allowed the second-fewest receptions and ranks third in target EPA (-10.8). He leads all cornerbacks in EPA/target since Week 13 (-1.08), has generated a coverage success rate of 64.7% and tight window throws on 30% of his targets all while being targeted on just 8.5% of snaps.

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Terrell has been an important part of the Falcons overall defensive turnaround since the bye.

Over the first 12 weeks of the season, the Falcons allowed 357.1 yards per game and 229.9 passing yards per game, ranking 25th and 26th, respectively. Atlanta also ranked 30th in third-down conversions (46.1%) and 25th in points per game (24.9).

Since Week 13, the Falcons rank second in total defense (275.8), 11th in pass defense (205.5), 16th in third downs (39.1%) and fifth in points allowed per game (18.8).

For the Falcons defense to continue its upward trajectory, Atlanta will need Terrell to continue to be "that guy."

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No better duo

It has been some time since Atlanta has had two receivers to each produce at a high level in the span of a season. Usually there is this notion of a "WR1" and a "WR2." In Atlanta, however, that isn't the case in 2024.

Darnell Mooney and Drake London are one of the top receiving duos in the NFL, and it's evident week in and week out. Both receivers are performing at career levels and have each shown why they've been vital pieces of Zac Robinson's offense.

London, the former eighth overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, has notched a career-best season, totaling 83 receptions for 978 yards and seven touchdowns, while free agent signing Mooney has hauled in 62 receptions for 955 yards for a career-best five receiving touchdowns. They are the only receiving duo in the NFL to have totaled at least 950 yards and five receiving touchdowns apiece this season.

Atlanta is one of three teams (New York Giants and New York Jets) to have two receivers with at least a 60% catch percentage for those with a minimum of 100 targets, with London having a 65.4% catch percentage and Mooney at 61.4%.

It's no secret these two are a threat in the passing game. Not only do they have a high catch percentage as a whole, but these two are proficient in hauling in receptions downfield. As a unit, they have combined for 55 receptions traveling 10-plus air yards this season, tied for the second-most among all wide receiver duos, for a total of 1,162 yards, the third-most among duos of such air yards, per Next Gen Stats.

Atlanta is the only team in the league to have two receivers with an average route depth of at least 12.0 yards. Mooney is tied for the sixth-highest route depth in the league with an average depth of 13.7 yards in his routes, while London has an average of 12.0.

London and Mooney are both nearing 1,000 yards receiving on the year, with London only needing 22 yards and Mooney 45.

If they both reach this feat this season, they will become the first Falcons duo to surpass 1,000 receiving yards in the same season since Julio Jones and Roddy White did so in 2012. As a duo, it's apparent that they are a threat, but individually, they are just as good.

London calling

Atlanta's offense has the league's lowest three-and-out percentage, only going three-and-out on 15 of 152 (9.9%) drives this season, with the NFL average being 20.3%. That is due to the success the unit is having on early downs.

On second down specifically, London has been targeted 51 times, the third-most in the NFL, and has hauled in the third-most (37) receptions (37) for the second most yards (442) and two touchdowns. Twenty-three of his receptions on second down have been conversions for a first, decreasing Atlanta's chance of going three-and-out on drives. It is also the second-most receiving conversions on second down in the NFL, behind only Ja'Marr Chase, who has 24.

London has only notched one 100-yard receiving game this season but has totaled 12 games of at least 50-yards receiving, the third-most behind Jefferson and Chase, who both have tallied 13 games of such yards.

Contested catches are moments that the third-year wide receiver prospers in, as he's shown he's the guy that will go up, fight for the ball and come down with it. According to Next Gen Stats, London has been targeted on 34 contested catches, which are catches of less than one yard of separation between the receiver and the defender, and has hauled in 16 of them, the most in the NFL. Two of his seven touchdowns are such catches.

Right on the Mooney

Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson has said that Mooney was one of the top targets Atlanta was trying to get to complement London's skill set, and they have certainly benefited from this signing.

"His speed and one-on-one ability was something we all liked," Robinson said this week. "So, once the guys in the front office did a great job of pulling those guys in here, along with Charlie Woerner, we were all excited."

Mooney is the downfield, dynamic guy. He has hauled in 20 receptions of at least 20 yards this season, the second-most behind Jefferson, who has caught 26 of such passes. According to Next Gen Stats, Mooney has accumulated the fourth-most yards (738) and tied for the fourth-most receptions (32) on downfield passes.

This season, he has run out routes on a career-high 12.1% of his routes and has totaled 229 receiving yards on such routes, the second-most in the NFL, trailing only Chase with 233, per Next Gen Stats.

This duo is a threat that many opposing defenses have had a hard time containing. When they try to take away one, the other shines. The competitive fire in each of them is something that hasn't gone unnoticed. They're showing up in the way Atlanta had hoped they would.

"It's no surprise that they're having such great seasons," Robinson said. "They're just a lot of fun to be around. Like I said, they are so competitive. Probably the two most competitive guys in the building. It obviously shows up in a big way."

Take an overhead look back at the game between the Atlanta Falcons and the New York Giants during Week 16, shot on Sony.

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