FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — Offenses have seen a resurgence over the course of the last two weeks after a bit of a slow start across the NFL in 2024. Over the first four weeks of the season, teams averaged 21.6 points and 322.7 yards per game. Those numbers have increased to 24.5 points and 357.1 yards per game in the two weeks since. Atlanta has followed a similar pattern, topping 400 yards of total offense in each of the last two games after eclipsing 350 yards just once in its first four games.
A part of that story can be told by the increase in plays the Falcons offense has run. With a high of 385 yards over the first four games, Atlanta averaged better than five yards per play in each game after Week 1. Some of the offensive limitations came from only running an average of 53.8 plays per game through Week 4, which led to an average of 309.3 yards and 18.8 points per game.
Over the last two games, Atlanta has averaged 74.5 plays, 486.5 total yards and 37 points per game. Outside of the Week 1 loss to Pittsburgh, the Falcons have been efficient on a per-play basis on offense, but the addition of more opportunities has led to a bounty in terms of both total yards and points. Kirk Cousins pointed to this change as one of the keys to his 509-yard passing performance in Week 5.
"I think the key is we got more at-bats," Cousins said. "We had 81 plays. We had some games this season that we've had 50-some plays, so 30 more plays. That's like another third of a game. It just gives you more chances to spread it around, get guys involved, be productive. We've got to be on the field to have offensive production."
Cousins' words ring true as the impacts of the added opportunities on a drive-to-drive and play-by-play basis are clear. Over the first four weeks, Atlanta ranked 19th in expected points added per drive (-0.2) and EPA per play (-0.03) and 18th in EPA per dropback (0.01), according to Tru Media. In Weeks 5 and 6, the Falcons jumped to second in EPA per drive (+1.5), fourth in EPA per play (+0.23) and fifth in EPA per dropback (0.31). Atlanta ranked ninth in total offensive drives over the last two weeks with 22 after ranking 29th in Weeks 1-4 with 38.
By staying on the field, the Falcons have been able to spread their wings, so to speak, when it comes to deploying their desired offensive attack. Like every team, Atlanta wants to be a versatile offense that can win in different ways. Over the last two games the team has shown it is capable of doing so.
In Week 5, the Falcons passing game stole the show in prime time as Cousins set a club record for passing yards with both Drake London and Darnell Mooney topping 100 receiving yards apiece. As any coach who has ever given a press conference will tell you, the NFL is a week-to-week league and often what works one game doesn't necessarily carry over to the next. This rang true in Week 6 as the Falcons ground game carried the day.
In Week 6, the Falcons generated +0.24 EPA per carry and had the best rushing success rate of any team in the league at 61.8% when excluding kneel downs, according to Next Gen Stats.
Atlanta logged 34 carries for 203 yards, scoring three touchdowns and averaging six yards per carry. Atlanta's Week 6 showing was its third-best performance by success rate since Next Gen began charting in 2016.
| Opponent | Week | Year | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|
| LA Chargers | Wk9 | 2022 | 68.6 |
| New Orleans | Wk1 | 2022 | 65.8 |
| Carolina | Wk6 | 2024 | 61.8 |
| New Orleans | Wk15 | 2022 | 61.5 |
| Dallas | Wk11 | 2018 | 61.1 |
It took Atlanta some time to get its run game firing. At least some of that has to be attributed to facing two of the top rushing defenses in the league in its first three games.
Per Next Gen Stats, Pittsburgh leads the league in EPA per carry at -0.27 and ranks fourth in rushing success rate at 35.7%, while Kansas City sits sixth (-0.16) and ninth (39%) respectively. Much like the passing game and the offense in general, the Falcons have shown improvement week in and week out. There are several factors at work in that. For one, continuity across the offensive line has helped. While losing center Drew Dalman was a blow, Ryan Neuzil has started each of the past three games and right tackle Kaleb McGary is back to full health after missing Week 4 against New Orleans.
Another factor is time on task. Atlanta's offense has now played six games together. Six games with its new offensive coordinator, Zac Robinson, quarterback Kirk Cousins and additional skill players. It has taken some time for that unit to gel and blend Robinson's offensive scheme with run game coordinator/offensive line coach Dwayne Ledford's designs. Such as matching Atlanta's 11-personnel passing game with its pistol run game.
Last but certainly not least are the players toting the rock, Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson.
Referring to a pair of running backs as thunder and lightning is likely one of football's oldest, and if we are being honest, laziest cliches. However, with these two it may be apropos.
Allgeier is the physical, punishing back as evidenced by his strong fourth quarter against Carolina. Atlanta used the former BYU standout to salt the game away, as he averaged 6.7 yards per carry on 10 rushes in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, Robinson remains a physical player but is more well known for his ability to shake defenders with his highlight reel moves.
For both players, the ability to generate yards after contact and force missed tackles has been paramount to their success.
According to Next Gen Stats, Allgeier averages 3.7 yards after contact per carry and has caused a missed tackle on 15 of his 51 rushes (29.4%). His 52.9% success rate ranks second among running backs with at least 50 carries this season. A testament to his tough, physical running style, Allgeier has only been stuffed or stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage on seven carries this season. According to Next Gen Stats, his 13.7% stuff rate is the sixth lowest among backs with at least 50 carries.
As a team, Atlanta has totaled 459 yards after contact for an average of 3.3 yards after contact per carry. Atlanta has broken 20 explosive runs (10+ yards) and has recorded an explosive rush on 13.7% of carries, which is the ninth-best mark in the NFL through six weeks, according to Next Gen Stats.
While Allgeier and Robinson have proven to be adept at creating extra yardage through toughness, agility and sometimes sheer will, they haven't found success all on their own. The Falcons offensive line has allowed the duo to hit the line of scrimmage with a full head of steam to ensure they have the time and space to make someone miss or bulldoze their way through.
According to Next Gen Stats, Atlanta ranks second in the league in speed at the line of scrimmage at 11.25 mph, trailing only Baltimore. Robinson leads all running backs in both average speed at the line of scrimmage (11.54) and average speed on carries (13.57) while Allgeier ranks fourth (13.29) and sixth (10.77), respectively.
According to Next Gen stats, Falcons rushers have hit 15 miles per hour on 28.1% of carries, the fifth-best mark in the NFL this season. Atlanta also boasts the seventh quickest time to the line of scrimmage at 2.91 seconds. The Falcons have seen contact before the line of scrimmage on 32.9% of rushes, which is the sixth-lowest mark in the league through six weeks. Atlanta ball carriers are averaging 1.7 yards before contact per carry with nearly 34% of their yardage coming before contact.
One of the keys to success for the Falcons in their Week 7 matchup against the Seahawks will be their ability to threaten with the passing game to force Seattle's defense to play with light boxes. According to Next Gen Stats, Robinson has faced a light box on 62.2% of his carries this season, the third highest among running backs. He has forced 15 missed tackles against light boxes, which leads the NFL, gaining 81 yards after missed tackles. The Seahawks have allowed a league-high 6.3 yards per carry on designed runs when playing with light boxes this season.
Atlanta has seen light boxes at the fifth-highest rate in the league (52.7%), while facing eight or more defenders in the box on just 15.1% of runs, the seventh-lowest rate of light boxes. One factor that may play a role in Atlanta seeing so many light boxes despite its intention to run the ball is its use of 11 personnel. Because of the three-receiver nature of 11 personnel, teams most often counter it with a nickel defense, subbing out a more traditional run-defending type of player for a coverage player.
Atlanta has run 77.4% of its designed runs out of 11 personnel. On those plays, the Falcons rank third in the NFL with 18 explosive runs. They are averaging 5.2 yards per carry and have a 45.1% success rate. Additionally, 72.6% of Atlanta's runs out of 11 personnel are considered blocked, meaning there are as many or more blockers than defenders in the box, showing how the Falcons have used 11 personnel to gain an advantage in the run game.
Matching up with the Seahawks
Everyone has seen the steady climb in success with Atlanta's offense as they're finding the balance between the run and the pass game as opposing defenses have recently had a hard time trying to defend the group. Another challenge is up ahead with a unit led by one of the top defensive minds in Mike MacDonald and the playmakers he has on that side of the ball. Let's take a quick look at what Atlanta's offense is up against this week.
A big stress this season for Atlanta has been converting on early downs. Right now, the team is second in the NFL in second-down conversion rate (41.9%) behind Baltimore, converting 52 times on 124 attempts. For Seattle, the unit has only allowed 32 conversions on 120 attempts, the ninth fewest allowed in the NFL for a 30% conversion rate.
Seattle has been very good in forcing three-and-out drives for its opponents this season. They've notched a 32.9% three-and-out drive rate, the highest percentage in the league, per STATS LLC. What's interesting is that while Seattle leads the league in forcing three-and-outs, Atlanta's offense is tied with San Francisco for the league fewest, with a three-and-out percentage landing at 10%.
Continued creativity in the run game will be one of the keys to Atlanta's success on Sunday against a unit that has generated a 44.8% defensive rush success rate this season, the seventh highest in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats. Seattle has played with light boxes on 36.2% of runs, the ninth-lowest rate in the NFL this season. They have seen 63 runs against a light box and surrendered 387 yards, 6.1 yards per carry and one touchdown. The Seahawks aren't doing it a lot but when they do, teams have hit them.
According to Cody Alexander at MatchQuaters, Atlanta has seen Cover 3 at one of the highest rates in the league, at 41.5% of offensive plays, well above the league average of 35.9. This is likely to combat Atlanta's run game to afford an extra defender in the box. It will be interesting to monitor that to see if Atlanta's recent improvements in the passing game changes how teams defend the offense. Seattle runs a high percentage of middle-field closed defenses mixing Cover 1 and Cover 3 to account for 60.5% of their defensive snaps.
The Seahawks have allowed the second-most yards after contact per carry in the NFL this season at 3.91, despite generating contact behind the line of scrimmage on 43% of carries, according to Next Gen Stats. As we have previously discussed, yards after contact is a strength of Allgeier and Robinson.
Now, it's no secret that Atlanta's offense has room to grow in third-down conversions.
Through six weeks of regular-season play, they have totaled a 34.4% conversion rate on third down, the 10th-lowest in the league. Seattle has generated a 58.3% pressure rate on third downs this season, the third-highest rate, compared to 30.4% on first and second down, the 15th highest rate. They are one of three teams (Chicago Bears, Houston Texans) to have five different players with at least 10 pressures this season.
One key piece to the Seahawks' pressures this season is third-year linebacker Boye Mafe. Mafe has been one of the most productive third-down rushers this season, generating 12 pressures on just 34 third-down pass rushes, the second-highest third-down pressure rate (35.3%) of any defender league-wide with a minimum of 25 third-down pass rushes, according to Next Gen Stats. Despite missing Weeks 4 and 5 due to injury, he has generated a team-high 19 pressures, three of which he's converted into sacks. Atlanta will need to capitalize off early downs against a team that pressures heavy on third down.
Seattle's secondary is another one to watch. They have only allowed 59 passing first downs, tied for the 12th fewest in the league, and have allowed 64 plays of 10 or more yards, the eighth-fewest in the league, according to STATS LLC. Atlanta, on the other hand, has totaled 85 plays of 10-plus yards, the sixth-most in the NFL.
The Seahawks have pressed opposing receivers on 31.8% of snaps this season, the third-highest rate in the league and have pressed the outside on 40.1% of snaps, the second-highest rate this season. One of the weapons that has been key in doing so is third-year cornerback Riq Woolen. Woolen has been targeted on just 12 of his 130 coverage snaps this season, the second-lowest target rate (9.2%) of a cornerback this season with a minimum of 60 coverage snaps. Woolen has allowed only five receptions for 41 yards, with three passes defended, including an interception.
The marriage of the run and the pass against this NFC foe will be crucial to Atlanta's offensive success on Sunday.
