FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — The Atlanta Falcons and Denver Broncos are coming off emotional losses in Week 10 as they prep to face each other now in Week 11.
The Falcons dropped a 20-17 loss to the Saints in New Orleans, halting a seven-game skid for the NFC South rival and giving Atlanta their first loss in division play. Meanwhile, the Broncos took the Kansas City Chiefs down to the wire, but a last-second, blocked field goal kept the Chiefs with a perfect record and the Broncos heading back to Denver at 5-5.
Make no mistake about it, though, the Broncos are better than their record indicates. And it goes without saying that this matchup is an important one for moral on both sides. Let's get into the storylines.
Injury update
For the first time in 2024, the Falcons defensive depth will be significantly tested. Atlanta ruled out eight players Friday in the team's game report, and that included seven defensive players, a few of whom are starters.
You can check out the Falcons entire injury/game report here, but one of the most important notes you need to take from it involves the Atlanta secondary.
The Falcons will be without starting cornerback Mike Hughes (neck), starting nickel Dee Alford (hamstring) and Alford's backup, Antonio Hamilton Sr. (pectoral) this Sunday in Denver. Hughes and Alford's roles are big ones to fill within the scheme. Chances are the impact of their absence will be felt in the increased playing time of Clark Phillips III and Kevin King. Phillips has played sparingly at outside corner in lieu of Hughes at various points in time this season already. King has come in for specific packages when the Falcons decide to go heavy at defensive back. However, where they slot in will be something to watch. Though Phillips has played majority of his reps in relief outside, he has always been cross-trained to play inside at nickel, too, as had King — who even took some reps at safety in the preseason.
Speaking of safety, it wouldn't be surprising if the Falcons deployed Richie Grant in the absence of a true designated nickel back as well. Along with King and Phillips, Grant is an option if the Falcons feel they need another type of player in the box. It will all depend on the look the Falcons want to throw coupled with what matchups materialize.
Containing Bo Nix
The Bo Nix of the first month of the season is not the Bo Nix the Falcons will face in Week 11. This Nix is working well within his offensive system and showing a comfort level that took time to build. Despite the Broncos loss to the Chiefs this past week, Nix is coming off one of his best performances as the Broncos quarterback.
He completed 22 of his 30 passes for 215 yards and two touchdowns in the Broncos' two-point loss. As Will McFadden pointed out in this week's pre-game Falcons Final Whistle podcast, though, a lot of Nix's success came on third down, to the tune of being 9-of-10 for 83 yards in those late-down situations. Both of his touchdowns came on third down as well, and those nine passes resulted in six first down completions. Overall, Nix's 115.3 passer rating last week was the highest mark of his career when on the road.
What's more, he's been consistently improving with each live game rep he sees. He's thrown for over 200 passing yards in five of his last six appearances. After throwing four interceptions in Denver's first two games, Nix has only thrown two interceptions in the eight games since. That, and he can extend plays well, too — an underrated part of his game that matters a great deal when you take note that he ranks in the top-5 in scramble yards amongst quarterbacks in the league.
The Falcons' pass rush has been inconsistent at best and nonexistent at worst, and this is a game that could come down to Nix's comfort level in the pocket.
Justin Simmons homecoming
All roads lead home for Simmons this week as he returns to the place that helped shape him.
Simmons spent the first eight years of his career in Denver after the Broncos drafted him back in 2016. The Denver defense became synonymous with Simmons' personal success as one of the best safeties in the league. It was with the Broncos that Simmons became a second-team All-Pro player twice and a Pro Bowl selection four times. His 30 interceptions made in orange and blue are still the most accumulated by any player since 2016. A part of Simmons will always live in Denver.
However, when the Broncos released him this past offseason, it was the Falcons he chose to join. So, even though he has a new home in Atlanta, that doesn't take away from all he was for Denver over eight seasons. In fact, it makes the homecoming this weekend a bit sweeter, especially if the Falcons can leave with a win.
"No bad blood on my end. I have nothing but love," Simmons said of the Broncos. "They'll always be in my heart as a great organization. And then at the same (time), knowing where I am now, really looking forward to going in there and finding a way to win a football game."
Game prediction
This is one of the best defenses the Falcons will face in 2024. Point blank period.
They rank in the top-10 in statistical categories like points allowed (No. 8), sacks (No. 2) and quarterback pressures (No. 1). They have two players — Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper — who rank in the top-15 in the league in sacks per player. The Falcons as a team have nine total sacks, Bonitto has seven himself. What's more, the Broncos are blitzing at the highest rate in the league, at 40.8%. And on the backend, Patrick Surtain II has three interceptions on the year, one he returned for a touchdown.
This Broncos defense is not being scored on a lot, either. On average, they are giving up 17.7 points per game. This is an important note because of a particular Falcons trend. Overall, Atlanta is 6-4 on the year. In their four losses in 2024, they failed to score more than 20 points. In their six wins, they scored more than 20. Good things happen for teams who score, especially if that team is the Falcons in 2024.
For this reason, I am predicting this game to be a low-scoring brawl. One that could mimic the look and feel of the Falcons first three games of the season against the Steelers, Eagles and Chiefs — three really stout defenses. The difference, though, now is that the Falcons offense has evolved from what it was in that first month of the season. But the team is coming off a loss to the Saints where drives fizzled out before finding the endzone. If redzone appearances are at a premium in Denver, the Falcons have to find a way to punch it in.
Bijan, unlocked
Despite the loss last week to the Saints, Bijan Robinson continues to show why you spend a No. 8 overall pick on him.
He is the first Falcons running back since Devonta Freeman in 2015 to accumulate over 1,000 scrimmage yards through the first 10 games in a season. He has the longest active streak of accounting for at least 100 scrimmage yards in a game the season, with last Sunday's game his fifth such game in a row. He's been good — very good — for the Falcons of late. You can dive much deeper into Robinson's statistical year so far with this week's Nerdy Birds edition.
And for the Falcons to see the offensive success they need in order to win this weekend, that will need to continue.
Player of the Game prediction: The entire Falcons offensive line
This game begins and ends at the line of scrimmage. As we have talked about already, the Falcons offense has a tough task ahead against this Broncos defense, perhaps their toughest task to date. We know Kirk Cousins has been pretty dang good under pressure in the last month of the season, and the expectation is that he'll need to be this Sunday, too. As much time and space as this offensive line can provide him, the better position the Falcons could find themselves in.
Protecting Cousins, establishing the run with Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, those things all stem from the work up front. If the Falcons win this game Sunday, it'll be because the Falcons offensive line did the dirty work necessary to overpower the Broncos. It's not going to be easy, but a win or a loss may ride on their shoulders.
