FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — For the last few years, the NFC South has run through Tampa Bay. With the start the franchise has had so far in 2024, it feels very on trend. Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers hold a 3-1 record, sitting atop the division with the Falcons on deck.
Atlanta is coming off their own divisional win over the Saints last Sunday. It was a grueling battle that came down to a career-long kick by Younghoe Koo. On a short week, both the Bucs and Falcons have had to turn the page on their most recent wins quickly.
This is the third of four prime time games for the Falcons, having faced the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football in Week 2 and the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night in Week 3. The Falcons are 1-1 in those prime time spots, 2-2 overall. And with another on tap — this time on Thursday night — the Falcons have a chance to tip the scales with a decisive (and important) win over a divisional opponent.
Let's dive into the matchup.
Injury updates
The Falcons will be without the reigning NFC Defensive Player of the Week in Troy Andersen this Thursday. Though Andersen accumulated a career-high 16 tackles and returned an interception 47 yards for a touchdown last Sunday, he did not finish the game because of a knee injury.
With Andersen officially out of the game and Nate Landman still on injured reserve, the Falcons will rely on rookie inside linebacker JD Bertrand to start alongside Kaden Elliss (more on Bertrand later, though).
In other injury news, the Falcons could see the return of right tackle Kaleb McGary to the starting lineup this Thursday. McGary suffered a knee injury in the Falcons loss to the Chiefs two weeks ago. He missed last Sunday's game because of it, but he did not show up on the team's game report Wednesday which means he will be available for the Falcons Thursday.
As for the Bucs, they'll be without a handful of players this Thursday including safety Antione Winfield Jr. (foot), offensive tackle Luke Goedeke (concussion), defensive tackle Calijah Kancey (calf) and wide receivers Jalen McMillan (hamstring) and Trey Palmer (concussion).
Baker and the Bucs
Like the Saints leading into Week 4, the Bucs offense has had a strong start to 2024. The pass game is ranked in the top five in the league in total yardage and top-10 in yards per completion average. This development is in no small part to Mayfield's accuracy as a passer.
Through four games, Mayfield holds a 70.5 completion rate. He has tossed eight touchdowns and only two interceptions. And of course, his favorite targets are feeling the effects of his accuracy and feel for the offense. Mike Evans is coming off an eight-catch, 94-yards receiving day vs. the Eagles last Sunday, while Chris Godwin has been targeted by Mayfield at least eight times in every game thus far in 2024.
But even though the names Evans and Godwin are the ones that stick out most in this Bucs offense, Mayfield's ability to use the offensive in its entirety has been the real key to Tampa's early success this season. It's something the Falcons know will be a challenge this Thursday.
"Baker will distribute the ball to anybody that's open. A lot of teams will try to take away those weapons (like Evans and Godwin) but he's not going to force the ball into somebody that's double covered, he's going to go to the open guy in the open area and deliver the ball on time," Falcons defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake said this week. "That's what Baker does a really good job of. He's not back there patting the ball. He's getting rid of it quick. He's got a quick release. He sees it really, really well.
"So, we've got to do a good job of mixing in coverages, making it muddy for him, so he can't deliver it on time."
Rookie starting snaps
As mentioned before, Bertrand will be getting his first NFL start in the absence of Andersen this Thursday.
Bertrand is in his first season with the Falcons after the organization drafted him in the fifth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. He's been active for the Falcons in each of their first four games, primarily used on special teams, but did get eight defensive snaps against the Saints last week when Andersen left the action.
Asked about Bertrand and his expanding role that now includes starting reps, Lake said Tuesday the staff is confident in what they have in Bertrand. In fact, everything the staff saw in him during his days at Notre Dame — where he led the team in tackles in back-to-back years — is what they've seen from him since he got to Atlanta.
"We can see and feel his football instincts," Lake said. "Once he arrived here, all of those traits showed up in practice. He got a few reps this last Sunday, played really well. Us as coaches, we're expecting no drop-off, if that happens, where he's going in there and going to play, we have a lot of confidence in JD."
Minimizing penalty pain
Penalties, Kirk Cousins said Wednesday afternoon, have been tough to overcome for the Falcons so far in 2024. And it's not just that penalties are happening — they're going to — it's that they have happened at inopportune times and have had a direct effect on the Falcons' stalled drives.
Beat reporter Terrin Waack took a deep dive into the penalty problem in her daily story Wednesday. I highly recommend you check it out. But one of the most interesting notes she found was that of the Falcons' 13 offensive penalties, 10 have resulted in a post-penalty play that required at least 11 yards to pick up a first down. What's more, 11 of those 13 penalties have come on first or second down, which is the reason for these long-yardage situations.
It's been an issue for the Falcons through four games, one that (if rectified) could result in more productive drives.
How far can this bend-but-don't-break defense get the Falcons?
There is this interesting dichotomy when it comes to the Falcons defense. They currently lead the league in limiting explosive plays of 20-plus yards, having only given up six such plays through four games. However, they are simultaneously allowing opponents to convert 47.4% of their third downs. So, while limited explosives have been a key net positive for the Falcons, the intermediate stuff is where they could take a step.
Grady Jarrett talked about this a little on Tuesday, saying limiting explosives can be a part of this defense's identity but for the unit to get to where they want to go it can't just be about that stat alone.
"I think there are some plays under that 20-yard mark that we can get a lot better in," Jarrett said. "That's kind of what we've focused on when trying to find ways to get better. We want to cut out some of those 6-, 7-yard chunk plays."
At the end of the day, Jarrett said, if you're giving up those type of yards on first or second down, it makes third down a heck of a lot easier for a coordinator. If there's an area for this defense to improve, it's in this part of the game.
Player of the Game prediction: Drake London
As noted in the injury update section of this article above, the Bucs will be without Winfield. He is someone that — last year at least — was a thorn in the side of someone like London. Winfield had his best year in the league in 2023, what with his three interceptions, six forced fumbles, six sacks and 122 total tackles on the year. The Bucs defense can't rely on that production Thursday, though, and this could benefit the Falcons' pass catchers.
As for why I am singling out London, it's because as games have stacked, so has Cousins' obvious connection with London. The receiver is coming off a game in which Cousins targeted him 12 times. In fact, London's targets have increased with every game that he's played this year. That is notable, and I feel like its only a matter of time before those added targets turn into even more production.
London has averaged six catches for just over 60 yards per game in the last three showings. If the ball continues to go his way and with the Bucs without Winfield in the secondary, that average could increase after Thursday.
Join the Atlanta Falcons with some of our favorite images from a short week ahead of the Thursday night matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, presented by Gatorade / FastTwitch.
Atlanta Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo #6 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons outside linebacker Matthew Judon #15 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons defensive lineman Ruke Orhorhoro #98 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell #24 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons long snapper Liam McCullough #49 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Red helmet during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London #5 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons safety Richie Grant #27 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Gatorade bottles sit on the sideline during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins #18 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Darnell Mooney #1 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons linebacker Kaden Elliss #55 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons outside linebacker Matthew Judon #15 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell #24 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons linebacker Kaden Elliss #55 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons defensive back Clark Phillips III #22 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons outside linebacker Arnold Ebiketie #17 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons safety Justin Simmons #31 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons defensive lineman Eddie Goldman #99 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons defensive lineman Eddie Goldman #99 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons outside linebacker Matthew Judon #15 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts #8 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Casey Washington #82 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons defensive lineman David Onyemata #90 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons guard Chris Lindstrom #63 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons safety Jessie Bates III #3 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts #8 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons safety Justin Simmons #31 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver KhaDarel Hodge #12 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons defensive end James Smith-Williams #50 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Ray-Ray McCloud III #34 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts #8 and Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson #7 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons defensive lineman Eddie Goldman #99 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins #18 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons outside linebacker Lorenzo Carter #0 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Red helmet during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver KhaDarel Hodge #12 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons cornerback Dee Alford #20 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London #5 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Red Helmet during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons defensive lineman Ta'Quon Graham #95 during practice at Atlanta Falcons Training Facility in Flowery Branch, Georgia, on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. (Photo by Jay Bendlin/Atlanta Falcons)
