FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — Well, ladies and gents, Week 18 is upon us, and wouldn't you know it the season all comes down to this. In true NFC South fashion, I might add.
We'll get into the postseason implications of Sunday's games later in the article (because yes, postseason implications are still a thing). But let's dive into this specific matchup first.
Injury update (Falcons' version)
There are a few names to keep in mind for the Falcons heading into the weekend. The main one is wide receiver Darnell Mooney.
Mooney popped up on the Falcons' injury report Thursday with a shoulder injury. He did not participate in Friday's practice and was given a questionable game designation. This is notable for two reasons. No. 1 because of Mooney's importance in this offense, particularly as his connection with Michael Penix Jr. grows. But also, No. 2 because Mooney is just eight receiving yards away from breaking the 1,000-yard mark on the season. This would be Mooney's second time surpassing said mark in his career, after first doing so in 2021 with the Chicago Bears.
Joining Mooney with a questionable designation are rookies JD Bertrand and Brandon Dorlus. Because of Bertrand's increased snap count in the wake of Troy Andersen's placement on injured reserver a few weeks ago, Bertrand are the Falcons decision on him will be something to monitor closely. Bertrand has been dealing with an eye injury all week.
The Falcons will release their official inactives list 90 minutes prior to the 1 p.m. ET kickoff on Sunday.
Injury update (Panthers' version)
On the heels of a Pro Bowl selection, the Panthers will be without one of their starting cornerback in Jaycee Horn. Horn has a hip injury and did not participate in any Week 18 practices prior to being ruled out in Friday's game report. The Panthers will be short in depth in other areas of the secondary, too, as safety Lonnie Johnson was also ruled out with a shoulder/neck injury.
As for other starters who the Falcons' should keep an eye on come a game-time decision, Panthers starting right side of their offensive line in guard Robert Hunt (knee) and tackle Taylor Moton (knee) were both listed as questionable. Starting receiver Xavier Legette is also questionable for Sunday's game with what is listed as a hip/wrist injuries.
As a reminder, the Panthers will also be without Chubba Hubbard, who was place on injured reserve last week with a calf strain that ended his best statistical season to date, a career-high 1,195 rushing yards. Raheem Blackshear and Mike Boone are the next men up for Carolina in Hubbard's absence.
New QB, on both sides
Neither of these defenses will face the same quarterback either did the first time around when these organizations faced off against one another in Week 6. At that time, there were no whispers of the Falcons moving on from Kirk Cousins, and Bryce Young had been replaced by Andy Dalton. The quarterback position for both clubs has changed drastically since then, though.
Young is back as the Panthers' starter, while Michael Penix Jr. is about to embark on his third start as the Falcons' man under center. We've seen what Penix has done with his late-season opportunity, but what of Young? Well, it's been significantly better for the former No. 1 overall pick since he returned to the starting lineup after Dalton was in a car accident in late October that injured his right thumb on his throwing arm.
Prior to Young's benching, he began the 2024 season with no touchdown passes, three interceptions and the third-worst total quarterback rating (8.9) over a two-game stretch since the metric began being used in 2011, according to ESPN. Since then, he's helped the Panthers to three wins and increased his QBR to 54.0. He's thrown 12 touchdowns to nine interceptions and he's amassed over 2,000 yards passing. It hasn't been perfect for Young, but it has been much better, even in losses.
Take his most recent appearance against the Bucs in Week 17 as an example. The Tampa defense kept Young under fire a lot. He was sacked five times and pressured on 68.6% of his dropbacks. Still, though, he found ways around the pressure. He tossed two touchdown passes and amassed over 200 passing yards for just the fifth time this season.
The Falcons have to prepare for a different type of quarterback in the pocket for the Panthers this time around. However, seeing as the Falcons' pass rush has come alive since the bye week, that may be a moot point. But only time will tell on that front...
Running into the record books
Bijan Robinson is having a career-year, yes. But he's also having a record-book year, too. Let's start with the Falcons' record book.
Robinson surpassed 1,700 yards from scrimmage his last time out in the Falcons' loss to the Commanders. When he did so he became the seventh Falcon ever do amass that yardage in a single season. He already ran for over 1,000 yards a couple weeks ago, etching his name in that category, too, along with many others.
But he's also on pace to do something that hasn't been done since Hall of Fame-caliber players did it.
Robinson can tie Pro Football Hall of Famers Edgerrin James (32 games) and LaDainian Tomlinson (32) for the most games with at least 50 scrimmage yards by a player in his first two seasons in NFL history. Not bad company to keep. And considering Robinson averages just over 100 yards from scrimmage a game, this could very well come to fruition.
The aforementioned postseason implications
The percentages are not in the Falcons' favor as the regular season comes to a close this weekend. But there surprisingly is still a chance, albeit a small one.
According to the New York Times playoff picture machine, the Falcons have a 17% chance of making the postseason with one game remaining in regular season play. NFL.com has that percentage a little lower at an 11% chance. Despite the difference in percentages, the main point remains: The Falcons need luck on their side to be NFC South Champions.
"Luck" in this case scenario is a New Orleans Saints' win. That's right, the Falcons playoff hopes are placed firmly in the hands of their rivals. Such is the NFC South chaos meter after all...
In simplest terms, the only the way the Falcons can earn a postseason berth is if they beat the Panthers Sunday while the Buccaneers simultaneously lose to the Saints. If that happens, it would put both Atlanta and Tampa Bay at 9-8 overall. With Atlanta holding the tiebreaker, it would mean they are NFC South champions, and as such their season would continue into the postseason.
Again, though, this is not something that many are putting the odds towards. But maybe a little New Year's magic can bend the Falcons' way?
Player of the Game prediction: A.J. Terrell
This pick probably surprised you, no? I mean, if I were you, I would be surprised. But hear me out:
I think Terrell deserves his flowers for the year he's had. National media are not talking about him. Nor, really, is the league fanbases at large. And that's a shame.
For some reason or another, Terrell's name has never really been in the spotlight, nationally recognized as one of the best cornerbacks in the league. But it absolutely should based on the year he has had that couples well with a shutdown 2021 season, too. Atlanta extended Terrell this offseason, making him one of the highest-paid corners in the league year over year, and he's been playing up to that contract's value in 2024 even if no one is talking about him.
As Will McFadden pointed out earlier in the week, Terrell had a pretty dang good day against Washington last week. He covered WR1 Terry McLaurin on 32 of his 34 routes (94.1%), allowing just one reception for five yards on seven targets. Terrell pressed McLaurin on 43.8% of his routes with an average target separation of 1.2 yards. This isn't the first time Terrell has taken an opponents' best receiving weapon away, either. He's done it all season long.
For context, here's a look at some of Terrell's most notable stats across nearly 600 coverage snaps in 2024.
Coverage snaps | Targets | Receptions | Yards allowed | Target rate | YAC/Rec |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
591 | 64 | 39 | 456 | 13% | 2.1 |
Terrell has been very good for Atlanta in 2024. I would argue All-Pro level good. And I will stand on the table to say Terrell hasn't gotten the recognition he deserves. (Neither has Kaden Elliss, either, but I digress).
Perhaps a couple interceptions Sunday, a few passes deflected and some key tackles would help the outside world see Terrell for what those inside the locker room in Atlanta know to be true. Terrell is as good as a lockdown corner as you'll find.
The only problem? Young has got to throw it Terrell's way. And as we've seen often in 2024, opposing quarterbacks are just not really willing to do that.
Refresh your eyes and thirst with our weekly recap of our favorite images from week eighteen practices ahead of the Sunday matchup against the Carolina Panthers, presented by Gatorade / FastTwitch.