FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — I have written so many words this week, and I do not have it in me to write yet another lede.
So, we're jumping into the deep end with all the storylines of the Week 16 game between the Falcons and Giants. No preamble. Let's do this.
Injury update
The only real piece of news on this front is the questionable status of two Falcons role players.
Outside linebacker Lorenzo Carter (groin) and wide receiver KhaDarel Hodge (ribs) were listed as questionable on Friday's game report.
Since returning from injured reserve after suffering a concussion, Carter has been a part of a rejuvenated Falcons defensive front that has racked up a streak of sacks worthy of league-wide recognition. Despite not having the sack or quarterback hit numbers of some of his edge rushing counterparts, Carter is an active part of the Falcons rotation up front, taking 43% of the Falcons' defensive snaps in Vegas on Monday.
As for Hodge, he's been an impactful individual for the Falcons in a reserve role filling in for Drake London and Darnell Mooney at times on offense, but more so, as an asset in special teams. In fact, Hodge was named the NFC's Special Teams Player of the Week following his performance against the Raiders on Monday night, which included a blocked and tipped punt.
We will know more about their game day status when the Falcons release their inactives list 90 minutes before the start of Sunday's 1 p.m. ET kick.
In other injury report news, the only Falcons player officially ruled out for Week 16 is that of rookie receiver Casey Washington. Washington has been working through the league's concussion protocol. And though he was limited in practice Friday, it wasn't enough for the Falcons to fully give him the green light to be active Sunday.
Burn notice
The Giants had a CVS receipt of players on their injury report this week. I'm talking 21-players long. But the main status Falcons fans need to be aware of is that of edge rusher Brian Burns.
Burns did not participate in the Giants' Wednesday or Thursday practices. He was limited on Friday and received a game designation of questionable on the team's game report. Burns is dealing with what is being listed as an ankle/neck injury.
In his first year with the Giants, Burns has been as advertised. He has eight total sacks, eight passes deflected, two forced fumbles, 13 tackles for a loss and 15 quarterback hits. He's also someone the Falcons know well, as his first five years in the league came in Carolina with the Panthers. The Falcons tackles of Jake Matthews and Kaleb McGary are quite familiar with Burns and he them. His status on game day will be something to monitor.
The start
Michael Penix Jr. is making his first NFL start this Sunday. Unless you've been living under a rock, you know this. What we don't know is what this start will foretell.
How quickly has Penix connected with his pass catchers? Who will be his go-to option? What wrinkles will Penix's position as the starter provide offensive coordinator Zac Robinson? How comfortable will Penix be getting the play call in? How similar or different will the game plan be? All of these questions — and many, many more — should be top of mind this Sunday as Penix makes his starting debut.
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The best friend
There's a saying that states a rookie quarterback's best friend is a dominant run game. I feel strongly that this will stand strong for Penix, too, considering how impressive the run game has been recently. Bijan Robinson is on a record-setting pace, having surpassed 1,000 rushing yards last week in Las Vegas.
As reviewed in this week's Nerdy Birds, Robinson ranks fifth in the NFL in total rushing yards and has the highest rushing total through the first 15 weeks of a season by a Falcon since Michael Turner in 2011.
"Robinson has the fifth-most rushing yards through the first 15 weeks of a season by any Falcon since 2000 and, according to Tru Media, his 1,102 rushing yards are the 12th most by a Falcon at this point in the season in team history," Matt Haley wrote. "He accomplished that feat despite logging the fewest carries of any player on that list."
What's more, as a unit the Falcons averaged over five yards per carry against the top-rated Vikings run defense two weeks ago, too. And yes, Minnesota was the best run defense at that time.
It wouldn't be surprising if the Falcons rely on the run game to sustain them early as Penix settles into his role but also because the Giants' own run defense is one of the worst-ranked in the league. It's a very obvious advantage the Falcons could exploit if they run the ball as they have been recently.
Eyes on the Bucs
The Falcons are still in the hunt for a postseason berth, but after only winning four of their last five games, that hunt has gotten more difficult with three games left in the regular season. As Amna Subhan detailed this week, the Falcons (7-7) playoff probability is 31%, according to NFL.com. A win in Week 16 against the New York Giants (2-12) would raise the chance to 38%.
While the Falcons face the Giants at home, the Bucs are on the road against the Dallas Cowboys. Tampa Bay holds the No. 1 spot in the NFC South, but only by a one-game lead. If the Falcons have the same record as the Bucs at the regular season's end, the Falcons will take over at the top of the division thanks to their tiebreaker over Tampa Bay.
If they don't, it'll be the Bucs on top once again.
Player of the Game prediction: Bijan Robinson
I know a lot of you were probably wanting to see Penix's name here. But considering this is his very first start and the Falcons are working on a short, tumultuous week, I couldn't put that many expectations on the rookie quarterback.
However, I could easily make note of Robinson considering all of the facts I detailed in "The best friend" section of this article. I am not going to reiterate all of those here, but suffice to say, I am expecting a big day for Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, too.
Relive moments of Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson's greatness as he surpasses 1,000 rushing yards in a season for the first time in his career. On Monday, during the Week 15 game against the Las Vegas Raiders, Robinson ran for 125 yards and finished the game with 1,102 yards so far in the 2024 season.