Nerdy Birds: Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, Falcons run game opens up offense

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — That was more like it.

Atlanta's offensive performance looked more like anticipated in Week 2. The Falcons were more explosive, more consistent and in the words of quarterback Kirk Cousins, cleaner and crisper. A big part of that improvement came on the ground as Atlanta was able to get its run game going on Monday night in Philadelphia.

In Week 2, the Falcons racked up 152 yards on 28 rushes averaging 5.4 yards per carry, 20 rushing yards over expectation and a 42.9 success rate. Atlanta committed to the run in Week 1 posting 89 yards on 22 carries good for four yards per carry and a 40.9 success rate. That's not necessarily a bad outing on paper, at least on average. Still, Atlanta's struggles to be clean and crisp led to mistakes and penalties that put them in some really unfavorable down and distances.

Through two weeks, the Falcons have been one of the more successful teams on first down, ranking third in the NFL in yards per play (7.4) and expected points added (5.98), while Cousins has the fourth-best passing rating (122.1) in the league on those plays. Atlanta struggled on third down in both games but the real culprit in Week 1 was second down.

Atlanta averaged a league-worst 1.4 yards per play and minus-11.33 EPA on second down against Pittsburgh. Those numbers improved to 6.6 yards per play and +3.15 EPA, both seventh-best in the NFL, in Week 2. Atlanta also picked up 10 of its 22 total first downs on second down and 19 of them came on first or second down.

The best third-down offense is the one that doesn't have to worry about getting into third downs.

By gaining first downs on first or second down, the offense has everything at its disposal and the defense never finds itself with a chance to get off of the field. Atlanta's second-down success in Week 2 helped see several key metrics jump compared to Week 1, including down-set conversion rate.

The Falcons converted drives into first downs or touchdowns at a 16% higher clip in Week 2. Atlanta also averaged 1.44 more plays and points per drive and nearly cut its rate of three-and-out drives in half.

Despite struggling to convert on third downs, Atlanta's early-down success was the key to staying in the game, which ultimately gave the team an opportunity to steal the win in the final minutes.

A key to Atlanta's success in the run game and on early downs has been the ability to generate explosive runs. According to Next Gen Stats, Falcons ball carriers have eclipsed 15 miles per hour on a league-high 31.9% of designed runs. Atlanta has totaled nine runs of 10-plus yards on the season, including six in Week 2 against the Eagles.

Bijan Robinson's elusiveness played a significant role in the team's uptick in rushing performance as he has forced 12 missed tackles this season, generating a 29.3% missed tackle evade rate, according to Next Gen Stats.

While Robinson has an uncanny ability to shake defenders all on his own, he's also gotten some help from his offensive line.

Thanks to the line providing cleaner rushing lanes for Robinson, he has seen nearly a full-yard increase in his yards before contact per carry year over year, with that number jumping to 2.2 yards in 2024 after averaging just 1.3 in 2023.

Overall, Falcons ball carriers have been contacted behind the line of scrimmage on just 26% of runs this season, the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL. That is also a significant improvement over last season when Atlanta ranked 22nd with contact before the line of scrimmage on 43.3% of carries.

It goes without saying, but keeping defenders off the backs in the backfield allows them to hit the line of scrimmage at full speed, and even if they are met immediately by a second-level defender the runner has an opportunity to make the defender miss, or at the very least fall forward for positive yardage.

Another key to Atlanta's success on the ground has been the offense's ability to attack light boxes or situations where the defense has seven or fewer defenders in the box.

It's probably too early to tell whether there is a correlation between the arrival of Cousins and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson and the uptick in light boxes, but there has been a difference early in the season.

Last year, Atlanta saw light boxes on just 40% of its rushes, one of the lower rates in the league, compared to 58% so far in 2024, which is the seventh-highest rate through two weeks. We need a little more data to make that connection, though, as the Eagles have aligned with seven or fewer defenders on 73.5% of runs, the second-highest rate in the NFL.

Some of that may be because the two teams faced each other, but a staple of Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio's defense is using light boxes to commit more defenders to stop explosive passes. One of the ways to beat that style of defense is to run the ball effectively. While committing to the run game was likely always part of Atlanta's plan to attack the Eagles, Philadelphia may well have planned to sacrifice yards on the ground to limit the Falcons' passing attack.

You could argue that both worked, as Atlanta was successful on the ground but stalled as the field shrunk in the red zone and Philadelphia was able to limit the Falcons explosive passing game for much of the game until the final drive.

After its Week 1 struggles, Atlanta seems to have found a better formula for offensive success. That formula will be challenged when the Kansas City Chiefs and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo come to town.

Thunder and lightning in action

We all saw the effect of getting the run game going for this offense in the Week 2 win over Philadelphia.

Explosive plays were made in the run and were crucial for the increase in first downs the club saw from Pittsburgh (15) to Philadelphia (22). With the help of the offensive line, running back duo Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier were able to show fans why they are nicknamed, 'Thunder and Lightning.'

The quick speed of Robinson and the ability to make people miss is the lightning. And we all know the bowling ball that Tyler Allgeier is, with the capability to break through tackles and extend plays in this offense. He brings the boom. Hints the thunder.

In Week 1 versus Pittsburgh, we saw Robinson heavily involved in the run game, totaling 18 carries for 68 yards on the ground. Allgeier had three attempts for 21 yards. It was a performance that left many wondering when they were going to see more of the dynamic duo. That increase in the split in the backfield came more in Week 2.

Thunder

Allgeier has been a threat in the run game since entering the league in 2022. With 1,035 rushing yards on 226 touches that season, he surpassed Williams Andrews' (1,023, 1979) to set the rookie franchise record in rushing yards.

In 2023, he notched a single-season career high in rushing touchdowns with four. Allgeier makes his presence known when on the field, with his ability to break through tackles. Since entering the league in 2022, Allgeier has averaged 3.65 yards after contact per rush, the fifth-best mark in the NFL, per TruMedia.

Yards After Contact Per Rush Since 2022

Lightning

Robinson has been especially good on early downs this season. He has totaled 85 rushing yards on second down, the fourth-most in the NFL through Week 2.

On 12 rushing attempts on second down, the second-year running back has notched a first down eight times, the third-most in the league. The Texas alum is effective in the run game on early downs, but he's also speedy.

According to Next Gen Stats, his max speed as he crosses the line of scrimmage is 19.45 miles per hour, the second-fastest output behind Minnesota's Aaron Jones (19.90) entering Week 3. Robinson averaged 6.9 yards per carry in Week 2, the second-highest output of his career. He also averaged 4.25 yards before contact per rush on second down alone, the third-best mark in the league.

Yards Before Contact Per Rush

We all know Robinson has been a threat in both the run and the pass since he entered the league in 2023, but he's also added blocking to his resume this season. Everyone saw the Falcons' explosive 41-yard touchdown from Kirk Cousins to Darnell Mooney. What many perhaps didn't see was how Robinson was able to make a big-time block that helped right tackle Kaleb McGary protect Cousins on that play and ultimately give the Falcons the lead.

Robinson has always been known as a runner but Falcons head coach Raheem Morris sees the dynamic player that he is and knows that blocking is just one more thing the second-year running back can add to his resume.

"Bijan is a well-rounded back, can go out there and do whatever you ask," Morris said. "Now him developing to this pass pro guy, and also being able to help out with some of the chips, some of the things he's able to do, the screen game, whatever the case may be, whatever's called upon, Bijan can do."

With this duo in the backfield, Atlanta's run game is going to continue to be a problem.