FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — The sample size continues to grow larger as we head into Week 4 of the NFL season, and teams are starting to separate themselves for better and worse. There are a few teams at the top that we all expected to be there when the season began. You know, the Bills, Chiefs and Packers of the world. And then there are the teams who have not gotten off to nearly the start many projected, let's call that the Bengals-Dolphins group.
And, of course, there are the teams who continue to outperform their preseason expectations. That's the fun part about this time of year. Weeks 4-6 is about the time when everything begins to sort itself out — some teams will regress back to the mean and others will pick up the pace. Here's a look at my Week 4 NFL power rankings before the madness of moving season begins.
(3-0)
1
2
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have scored 78 points and allowed just 20 over the last two weeks. Very few teams look as complete as Buffalo does right now, and Josh Allen is a cheat code.
(3-0)
2
1
Kansas City Chiefs
Great teams have multiple ways to win, and that's the mode the Chiefs are in right now. It's not always pretty, but they get the job done.
(3-0)
3
7
Minnesota Vikings
No team is playing complementary football better than Minnesota right now. The Vikings are No. 3 in points scored, No. 2 in points allowed and No. 8 in special teams EPA.
(3-0)
4
13
Seattle Seahawks
Even with a minus-2 turnover margin, Seattle still beat Miami 24-3. Mike Macdonald has the Seahawks defense rolling and the offense has been steady.
(2-1)
5
6
Green Bay Packers
The Pack are 2-0 without Jordan Love, and the offense has molded around Malik Willis nicely. Green Bay's defense is getting pressure and forcing turnovers. I like it.
(3-0)
6
10
Pittsburgh Steelers
Justin Fields continues to look comfortable and has made a strong case to keep the job. Meanwhile, the defense remains elite.
(2-1)
7
2
Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday was an important win for the Eagles, and it came on the road against one of the league's hottest teams. Perhaps it can galvanize a talented group.
(2-1)
8
5
New York Jets
New York's offense looked sharp against the Patriots after a short week of preparation. It's a talented unit backed up by a very stingy defense. That's a strong recipe for success.
(2-1)
9
3
New Orleans Saints
The offense came back to Earth in Week 3, but the Saints remain explosive and efficient in key areas.
(2-1)
10
5
Detroit Lions
We haven't seen the Lions really put a team away yet, which is why they've been jumped by a few other teams. They are still a Top 10 group.
(2-1)
11
7
Houston Texans
Minnesota looks dominant right now, so it would be easy to say Houston ran into a buzzsaw. But weren't the Texans supposed to be a buzzsaw? I think they'll get straight this week.
(1-2)
12
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens looked like the team we expected through three quarters in Dallas and still earned the win after a tense fourth quarter. Baltimore's defense looks shaky, but this team could get hot fast.
(1-2)
13
11
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers felt in control of their Week 3 matchup against the Rams right up until they weren't. If/when McCaffrey returns, an offense that has been very good could quickly become the league's best.
(2-1)
14
6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Was Sunday's loss a blip for the Bucs after a 2-0 start or something more? Tampa Bay's offense has cooled after its red-hot Week 1.
(2-1)
15
13
Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels took a big step forward on Monday night and the offense has been sneaky good, but Washington's defense is still a giant question mark.
(1-2)
16
5
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals two losses have come against the Bills and Lions by a combined 13 points. Against the Rams they won 41-10. The Cardinals have played really well for stretches, too. This next game against Washington should be telling.
(1-2)
17
3
Dallas Cowboys
They made a game of it against Baltimore in the fourth quarter, and maybe that's the start of a breakthrough, but the Cowboys' defense looks problematic.
(2-1)
18
11
Los Angeles Chargers
Let me be clear: I think Jim Harbaugh will make the Chargers legit contenders in the near future. But they will need Justin Herbert to make that happen, and that ankle injury worries me.
(1-2)
19
1
Atlanta Falcons
Even after a loss, the Falcons get a slight bump. Atlanta's opponents are a combined 8-1, but the team has only been outscored by a combined 12 points. The Falcons are keeping these games close without playing their best ball.
(1-2)
20
10
Denver Broncos
Denver's defense is currently rated No. 7 in EPA, per TruMedia, and Bo Nix looked totally in command against Tampa Bay.
(1-2)
21
3
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts' losses have come by a combined eight points, and they finally broke through on Sunday without playing their best ball. Richardson's recent turnovers are concerning, though, and the defense has struggled.
(1-2)
22
3
Los Angeles Rams
I still have a lot of questions about the Rams, particularly on defense, but a win against the 49ers is not nothing.
(0-3)
23
5
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have not lost a game by more than a touchdown, and they are still a talented team on paper. But these losses are piling up quickly.
(1-2)
24
2
Chicago Bears
The bad news: the Bears lost to a Colts team still trying to find its footing. The good news: Caleb Williams appears to be getting more comfortable.
(1-2)
25
10
Miami Dolphins
Miami is down to its third-string quarterback, and one of the league's scariest offenses now feels toothless. The idea of Russell Wilson to Miami has been tossed out there, which is a sign of where they're at.
(1-2)
26
6
Carolina Panthers
There may be no better single-game example to illustrate the importance of quarterback play in the NFL than Carolina's 36-22 win against Las Vegas. Nobody saw that performance coming, but is it an outlier or something real?
(1-2)
27
8
Cleveland Browns
The final stat line for Deshaun Watson looked better than the eye test. This could be a long season for a team many expected to compete for the playoffs.
(1-2)
28
3
New York Giants
Malik Nabers looks like a future superstar in this league, and the Giants' 14 sacks are tied for second-most.
(1-2)
29
3
Las Vegas Raiders
After surprising the Ravens in Week 2, the Raiders got surprised by the Panthers on Sunday. And now there's a QB question in Las Vegas — who knows what to make of this team.
(0-3)
30
7
Jacksonville Jaguars
Monday night was pretty revealing, even if this team is filled with players we all know.
(1-2)
31
4
New England Patriots
Not much went right for the Patriots on Thursday night against the Jets, and it feels like this team is trending in the wrong direction.
(0-3)
32
3
Tennessee Titans
I like individual elements of the Titans, but this group doesn't feel all that close to putting it together.
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