FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — Make no mistake about it, y'all. This weekend is do-or-die for the Atlanta Falcons.

Venturing up to the nation's capital (or, umm, Maryland) to face the Washington Commanders on Sunday Night Football is the test the Falcons must ace to keep their playoff hopes alive. Of course, there is still a world in which the Falcons don't have to win and still stay alive (I will talk a bit about that scenario later in this article). But to keep destiny in your own hands, this is a game the Falcons need to win.

There are storylines galore within the scope of this particular matchup. So, let's not waste any time and get right to 'em.

Injury update

For it to be Week 17, the Falcons are not in a bad spot health-wise going into the weekend slate of games. Despite Drake London showing up on the injury report for much of the week, he told reporters in the locker room Thursday that he doesn't foresee the listed knee injury being a problem come Sunday night. And he would be correct as the Falcons did not give him a game designation Friday. The Falcons also cleared fellow receiver Casey Washington from concussion protocol and KhaDarel Hodge from a ribs injury that has lingered for him. So, by all accounts, the Falcons offensive unit is at full-strength this Sunday. While Washington and Hodge (specifically) will continue to play a key role on special teams.

The defensive unit is not too far off, though the group will be missing a couple depth pieces in the secondary. Defensive backs Kevin King (concussion) and Antonio Hamilton Sr. (quad) did not practice this week and were ruled out by head coach Raheem Morris Friday afternoon. King's absence may be particularly felt as he's been rotated in for certain third-down looks the Falcons defensive has deployed in the last couple games.

Other than that, though? The Falcons are entering into a premiere matchup with the Commanders in a good spot. The Falcons and Commanders official inactives list will be released 90 minutes prior to Sunday night's 8:20 p.m. ET kick.

Eyes on Commanders' report

Washington's game report was a bit of a mixed bad. Though wide receiver Terry McLaurin is cleared to play Sunday despite showing up on the injury report this week with an ankle injury, the Commanders will be without some notable names and may get another back.

The Commanders will not have starting receiver Dyami Brown (hamstring), cornerback Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) or offensive tackle Andrew Wylie (groin) against the Falcons. All have been ruled out.

Washington is expecting defensive tackle Jonathan Allen to return to the fold, though. Allen has missed much of the 2024 season to this point with a pectoral injury that he suffered in the Commanders' sixth game against the Ravens. Prior to that point, Allen was producing well for Washington, accounting for 13 tackles, two sacks, two tackles for a loss, and six quarterback hits.

He was officially listed as questionable on the team's Friday game report after a full week of practice. Head coach Dan Quinn told reporters he was "optimistic" about Allen's return. While defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. said earlier in the week that if Allen did get the green light he would likely be on a pitch count as he works back into game mode.

The marquee matchup

It was funny. When the decision to flex this game to Sunday night was announced a couple weeks ago, it was met with lackluster.

The Falcons were just coming off a 15-9 win against the Raiders on Monday Night Football. Though they won the game, it didn't feel like a win as Atlanta would go on to replace Kirk Cousins with Michael Penix Jr. a day later. When that decision was made, it changed the excitement level for this matchup. Now, Sunday Night Football is all about the Jayden Daniels vs. Michael Penix Jr. storyline.

What's so interesting about these two quarterbacks is that their stories up to the moment they were drafted actually ran parallel. As Amna Subhan wrote this week, both found success after transferring prior to their junior year. Penix went from Indiana to Washington, putting the Huskies in the playoff spotlight. Daniels went from Arizona State to LSU, winning the 2023 Heisman Trophy.

They were coveted through the pre-draft process, and worked out together often in Southern California during that time. They built a bond, and both became top-10 draft picks — Daniels to the Commanders at No. 2 overall and Penix to the Falcons at No. 8.

That is when their paths diverged.

Daniels was set to be "the guy" in Washington. He took all of the first-team reps from the moment he was drafted to the point we sit at right now, with Daniels quarterbacking a high-powered Commanders offense to a top-5 statistical standing and a 10-5 record.

Meanwhile, Penix was set to be the heir apparent to Kirk Cousins. If all went to the Falcons' plan, Penix would be No. 2 in Atlanta for a few years as Cousins led the offense. That plan has changed, and Penix is coming off his first start, a solid one the Falcons needed.

But he doesn't have the professional reps and in-the-clutch performances Daniels has to this point. They both will start Sunday night, but their stories since the end of April couldn't be any more different.

The measuring stick of progress

An early blight on this Falcons defensive resume was its inability to consistently affect the quarterback. Since the bye week, that has not been a problem for this unit. Prior to their win against the Giants last week, the Falcons were the only defense in the league with a streak of four sacks in three consecutive games.

The Falcons were one sack away from keeping that streak going last week, they did notch two pick-sixes. So, you'll take that, too, right? Of course you would.

Things have picked up significantly for this unit, but a marker to discern how much progress has been made will be this group going up against Daniels, specifically.

Daniels is a premium duel threat quarterback thriving in his rookie season. He leads the Commanders offense in rushing yards and is second in the league at the quarterback position with none other than Lamar Jackson.

This is important to point out because it was the mobility of quarterbacks the Falcons faced early in the season that gave them issues. Plays were being extended more than the Falcons would have liked.

Think Justin Fields in Week 1, Jalen Hurts in Week 2, Patrick Mahomes in Week 3. Heck, I would even throw in Baker Mayfield in October. He's got some giddy-up to him, too. In recent weeks, the Falcons have faced more pocket passers than true scramblers at the quarterback position. Things change dramatically with the team gearing up to face one of the league's most lethal dual threats.

If this Falcons defense can find a way to contain Daniels and minimize the damage his legs can do, that will be a true signal to me that this defense really has turned a corner from who they were early in the year.

Playoff implications

As stated in the lede of this article, this game could be for all the marbles. And here's why...

The easiest path forward for Atlanta to make it to the postseason is to — at the bare minimum — win as many games as Tampa Bay does through the final two weeks of the season. By holding the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay, the Falcons don't technically have to win out if the Bucs don't, but that feels like taking control of your own destiny out of your own hands. And, well, it's easier said than done, right?

As this entire article has laid out: The Falcons face one of their toughest and most intriguing contenders yet in the Commanders this Sunday. They'll host the Panthers at home in Week 18 to close out the regular season. Meanwhile, the Bucs face Carolina this weekend while matching up with the Saints to end their season.

The best case scenario for the Falcons this weekend? Beat the Commanders and have the Bucs lose to the Panthers. If that happens, the Falcons will clinch the NFC South title, and an automatic berth into the post season.

The OK case scenario for the Falcons this weekend? Have the same outcome as the Bucs, win or loss, to keep their overall record the same. That would push the discussion of NFC South champions to Week 18.

The worst case scenario for the Falcons this weekend? Lose to the Commanders while the Bucs beat the Panthers. This would swing Tampa Bay back atop the division, leaving the Falcons hoping and praying that the Saints (of all organizations) would save them in Week 18 by defeating the Bucs while the Falcons (in this scenario) beat the Panthers to clinch.

So, yeah. There you have it, folks.

Player of the Game prediction: Michael Penix Jr.

Because the narrative of this game centers holistically around the rookie quarterback conversation, it's difficult not to pick Penix here. I have no doubt if the Commanders win, it'll be Daniels. So, it stands to reason that if the Falcons are in the position to win, it'll be because Penix helped put them there.

Here's the thing, though: I actually don't think that means he has to be flashy about it. I don't think that means he's tossing bombs 30 yards down the sideline every few plays. No. I really believe that if the Falcons get a clean performance out of Penix in his second start that they'll stay in lockstep with the Commanders. Running a clean, efficient operation again will do wonders for this offense. Making it easy to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers should be Penix's goal. He doesn't have to do too much with the likes of Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Darnell Mooney around him. (Speaking of London and Mooney, they are about to hit 1,000-yards receiving and can both do so in this game).

The issues the Falcons had at the quarterback position last month was that the inefficiencies and mistakes at quarterback were getting in the way of team consistency and success offensively. As long as Penix enhances the operation and takes care of the football, the national conversation could turn Penix's way.