COOKIN' UP CONVERSIONS — The Atlanta Falcons have seen success in fourth-down situations more times than not in 2024. In fact, not only are they converting in these moments, but they are not afraid of the situation, either.
Overall, the Falcons have gone for it on fourth down 15 times. They have converted 11 of those situations, and while we'll dive deeper into the full statistical snapshot of all 15 tries, we're first going to talk about why this specific accumulation is a sign and byproduct of confidence in aggression.
All fourth-down moments are a risk versus reward opportunity. Do you risk it for the biscuit? As my fellow southerners would say. And to the Falcons' credit, they have been risk-takers to a degree we haven't seen in the last few years prior to this coaching staff landing in Atlanta. That is important to note because that go-for-it mentality has to start at the top and trickle down. According to the head coach himself, it does, both on the field with the players and off the field with the coaching staff.
"It's (offensive coordinator) Zac Robinson,... (quarterbacks coach) T.J. Yates and (offensive assistant) D.J. Williams and what they're able to do to keep me poised, keep us in the mindset of what we want to do and how aggressive we want to be," Raheem Morris explained.
Also, let's be honest, Morris added, it also has a heck of a lot to do with the players who are actually executing the plays, especially the quarterback. And the reason for a lot of the Falcons' fourth-down success can be attributed to one Kirk Cousins.
"I love the way Kirk is able to see the whole process, go through it and be able to get the ball where he needs to get it to," Morris said. "On some of those timely fourth downs, a lot of that aggressive play call mentality is because of the guy you have, the people that's doing it, the execution that you know is going to get done."
Asked about Morris' comments after the Falcons' 27-12 win over the Cowboys last Sunday, Cousins himself pointed to just about everyone else. And even then, he said all of this after he made sure to say the Falcons should be better on first, second and third down so as not to put themselves in those fourth-down scenarios. But still...
He began at the top in his answer.
"Your head coach has to be willing to put that out there and be aggressive and go for it," Cousins said, "and that's a challenge for many to make that call, but he's been consistent in how he wants to approach it.
"And then Zac has to be very quick-thinking to react in the moment, to say, 'OK, we are going to go for it. What do I like in such a critical situation?' So, a lot of credit goes to Zac as far as what he's dialing up quickly on these fourth downs.
"And then you're going to get people's best rush, so protection has been holding up. You're going to get tight coverage. Guys have been separating and winning. So, it kind of all adds up to production. But I go back to what I've said so many times: I just try to be the point guard distributor, and so many other pieces have to step up, too, coaches and players, and when they do, that's when it gets really fun to be that distributor."
As I began breaking down each of these fourth-down moments so far in 2024, what Cousins said — going from top to bottom — was ultimately true. There are some trends we'll look at below, but by and large, the Falcons have been very consistent in mixing their fourth-down calls and having different players contribute. They've run the ball. They've thrown it. Everyone has played a role in the play calls themselves. The Falcons have gone for it in every quarter. They've gone for it at different parts of the field, from just beyond midfield to the redzone.
So, despite what the headline of this article says, there really wasn't a secret sauce when you look at each individual moment. It's not like I can sit here and say, 'Oh, this one play call works every time' or simply, 'Give it to X, Y or Z player.' That's not realistic.
If anything, the secret sauce is a mentality the unit has as a whole — from the coaches putting the call in to the players executing it.
It's a confidence in aggression that has led to success. But we can still talk about the trends we're seeing.
Key learnings
By the numbers: As stated previously, the Falcons have converted 11 of their 15 fourth-down attempts. What's most compelling about those conversions is that the Falcons have been exceptionally explosive in moments when they (theoretically) only need 1-3 yards, max. We're talking explosive in the form of 157 net yards from scrimmage gained and four — yes, four — touchdowns. Here's how the yardage and conversion broke down:
- 4th-and-1: 3 for 5
- 4th-and-2: 1 for 1
- 4th-and-3: 3 for 3
- 4th-and-4: 4 for 4
- 4th-and-5: 0 for 1
- 4th-and-15: 0 for 1
Airing it out: Despite fourth down being a typical short-yardage situation, more times than not the Falcons like to put the ball in the air. And they've been productive when doing so.
The Falcons have only enacted four design runs on fourth down (with one of those being a Cousins sneak). Outside of a 10-yard run by Bijan Robinson on a 4th-and-1 in Week 1 against the Steelers, the Falcons have had two of their next three fourth-down runs pick up zero or negative yards. It's in the pass where they've seen the biggest chunk of production.
Cousins has made a pass attempt on fourth down 11 times. He's completed nine of those 11 throws, tossing one incompletion on a fourth down in the redzone against the Chiefs in Week 3 and an interception on a 4th-and-15 in the fourth quarter of the Falcons' overtime win over the Buccaneers in Week 5. That 4th-and-15 was the only fourth-and-long attempt the Falcons have had to this point. Here's how Cousins' targets break down:
- Darnell Mooney: Four catches for 72 yards and two touchdowns
- Drake London: Three catches for 24 yards and a touchdown
- Kyle Pitts: One catch for 36 yards and a touchdown
- Ray-Ray McCloud: One catch for 12 yards
Two of the four touchdown plays was Cousins taking advantage of break downs in the opponent's secondary. Most recently against the Cowboys, Cousins hit a wide open Mooney on a 4th and 3 play in the second quarter. With trips out to the right, Mooney wheeled his route to the outside of McCloud and KhaDarel Hodge. When he did, the safety crashed into the defensive backs in coverage against McCloud and Hodge, ultimately freeing Mooney up completely for the touchdown.
The other touchdown came on a play we have discussed in a previous notebook installment, when we talked about the first of Pitts' two touchdowns against the Buccaneers in Week 8. On that play, Pitts just ran over his defender and Cousins tracked to him when the safeties doubled Mooney and London on the opposite side of the field.
A trending alignment: Though I did say the Falcons have thrown a little bit of everything at fourth-down situations this year, that is true. But it's also true that there is one alignment they went to enough for me to make note of. In essence, they threw out of it five times against the Eagles, Chiefs, Buccaneers and the Seahawks (twice). In all five instances, the Falcons converted in significant fashion, accumulating 50 yards and a touchdown. Here's the look:
Running out of shotgun, Cousins has Robinson in the backfield with him and four wideouts. To his left is Mooney and McCloud. To his right are his "bigs," London and Pitts. In all five instances, there was never a pre-snap motion, and often times Robinson is used in pass protection as receivers get to the top of their routes, all of various depths. The Falcons have run a lot of different routes out of this alignment. In three of the five cases, though, London has been the go-to receiver when working out of this formation, particularly against Seattle in Week 7 when an out-route resulted in a 5-yard touchdown in the third quarter.
Another key point of these specific plays is its what the Falcons went to when they were trying to go fast, specifically. That's been an important part of these fourth-down decisions overall, too. There is little hesitation on the part of the offense. They're set, ready and going for it within a few seconds of a short ruling. This has been to opponents' detriment as defenses are left scrambling a lot on these 15 plays.
After nine weeks of play, the Falcons have found significant success in fourth-down situations. And there are a lot of reasons why, but the main reason? Perhaps it has something to do with that confidence in aggression Cousins himself referred to from top to bottom, from decision-makers to executioners.
Immerse yourself in the subtle drama of the Falcons-Cowboys meetup at Mercedes-Benz Stadium with our monochrome snapshots from Week 9, shot on Sony.