How the Falcons, Steelers have fared in season openers – and what the numbers say for Sunday

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. – The Atlanta Falcons are undefeated against AFC opponents in Week 1 at home.

It's true.

But don't go ahead and pencil Sunday's game into the win column just yet.

Because at the same time, Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has never lost to the Falcons.

Those two facts show why it's important to take a deeper look at the history leading into Sunday's opener between the Falcons and Steelers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

For starters, the Falcons are 29-29 all-time in season openers, meaning they have won 50% of the time. That total breaks down to 15-10 (60% win rate) at home and 14-19 (42%) on the road.

For the overly technical out there, the Falcons started playing inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium in 2020. So, they're 1-3 at home since then. That one victory came last season, when the Falcons defeated the Carolina Panthers, 24-10. But, for big picture purposes, home is home regardless of the exact venue.

The Steelers, of course, are why the AFC caveat was introduced into the stat breakdown.

Overall, the Falcons are 5-2 (71%) against their opposing conference in Week 1. This only dates back to 1970, though, because of the NFL-AFL merger that created the AFC conference and birthed the present-day NFL landscape.

Of those seven non-conference games, the Falcons went 4-0 (100%) at home and 1-2 (33%) on the road. Hence, the undefeated statement that led all of this.

The Steelers, meanwhile, are 33-26-3 all-time in season openers, meaning they won 53% of the time. They've compiled 20-14-1 home (57%) and 13-12-2 (48%) road records.

Pittsburgh is then 9-6 (60%) against NFC teams in Week 1, spitting the total up 6-5 (55%) at home and 3-1 (75%) on the road.

Perhaps the more, if not most, important way to look at this is through the eyes of Tomlin, considering he has been running the show in Pittsburgh since 2007. Raheem Morris only took over the Falcons this year. So, Tomlin's resume in Pittsburgh is deep enough to be relevant for Sunday's matchup, at least for his side of the field, whereas Morris' is not.

The Steelers under Tomlin's watch have gone 10-6-1 (59% win rate) in season openers: 4-2 (67%) at home and 6-4-1 (55%) on the road.

The Falcons and Steelers have only ever faced off once before in Week 1, with Pittsburgh taking a 15-9 win at home in 2010. That was one of Tomlin's four career victories against Atlanta. Again, no losses.

In fact, the last time the Falcons and Steelers played was in 2022. Pittsburgh won, 19-16, in Atlanta. It was a December game, though. Vastly different than a September kickoff.

All in all, that was a lot of records with different stipulations. The ability to pick and choose is there for any desired result. But overall, it appears the Falcons' and Steelers' Week 1 outcomes are about the same. The Falcons, though, have done slightly better against the AFC than the Steelers have against the NFC. So, that could play in the Falcons' advantage Sunday. The home environment helps, too.

Either way, Sunday's final will break the Falcons' all-time Week 1 tie.